Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[chaser1]

And to add more confusion. Canadian into Louisiana

Yeah, pretty weird?? The Canadian has strong ridging all the way across the W. Atlantic and instead of any E. CONUS trough, simple has a small cut off low over Nova Scotia instead. Otherwise, the two model runs look pretty similar up to about 156 hrs with the storm just north of Yucatan at the time. Both models push back initial development (Canadian has < 1000 mb at 120 hr's from last night's 0Z run, but the new 12Z run also not reaching <1000 mb
until 120 hr's from this run as well)

[Pipelines182]

I don't know where it's going other than to say it won't be Tampa bay. We don't mess with these. You can tell us a cat 5 is coming and people will shrug their shoulders and move on. I distinctly recall people grumbling on the lead up to Ian about how they never come here...and they were right...again. tampa bay will not prepare for a hurricane again until they are first crushed which hasn't happened in over a century. The professional class has given us too many false alarms and we are totally done. We just waitin' on a cold front...

Yeah the complacency is real. It's not a matter of if but when Tampa gets a big one and when it does, it's going to be ugly. Could be this one, probably not but it's certainly more likely now than it was a week ago.

[Frank P]

12z GFS run FWIW

[toad strangler]

I don't think there is one cloud in the region yet that will be associated with the spin up. Thus, it's "pin the tail on the donkey" every model cycle.

[chaser1]

Meanwhile, there's yet another East Atlantic MDR small hurricane moving west under the radar, with a bubble ridge just north of it that seems to want to slide westward with the storm. At 282 hrs, it is just NE of Puerto Rico appearing to be moving west at about 10 mph with mid level ridging filling in further west in the wake of the GFS Tampa basher.

[AutoPenalti]

Until there's even a hint of a cloud forming down there, any landfall impacts are just throwing darts at anything that sticks.

[WaveBreaking]

Yet another armageddon run from the GFS

[chaser1]

I don't think there is one cloud in the region yet that will be associated with the spin up. Thus, it's "pin the tail on the donkey" every model cycle.

FACT

[chaser1]

... but wait, next up - Miami?

[Frank P]

I don't think there is one cloud in the region yet that will be associated with the spin up. Thus, it's "pin the tail on the donkey" every model cycle.

Maybe a couple or two..

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS run FWIW
https://i.ibb.co/2MzSr4J/floop-gfs-2024091912-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

That would require a very sharp trough to get that kind of motion, like the previous OP runs...overboard it goes to the depths of the gulf.

[jlauderdal]

... but wait, next up - Miami?

Hopefully, we could use a couple of hits at this range to ensure we are out of it, I get concerned when we dont get pummeled by model canes.

[chaser1]

GFS 306 hr. with the next 'cane at 976 mb and barely north of Hispaniola, moving about 275 @ 10 mph - ridging still in place and nothing to immediately pull it poleward. Then at 324 hr.'s it's down to 972 mb just scraping N coast of E. Cuba moving WNW

[chaser1]

... but wait, next up - Miami?

Hopefully, we could use a couple of hits at this range to ensure we are out of it, I get concerned when we dont get pummeled by model canes.

So true
But you've got to admit, this run is especially quality fan-fiction. How many times can we say that we've seen both Tampa AND Miami levelled in the same model run?!

[ThomasW]

Yet another armageddon run from the GFS

https://i.imgur.com/icNrSNK.jpeg

Opal into Tampa... small core but radius of gales so big I'd get 50 knots even down here in Hendry County.

[chaser1]

I don't think there is one cloud in the region yet that will be associated with the spin up. Thus, it's "pin the tail on the donkey" every model cycle.

Maybe a couple or two..
https://i.ibb.co/Wkyt9Dg/GOES16-1km-ir-202409191635-10-50-31-00-97-50-70-50-vis1-ltngge-hgwy-warn-weathernerds.png

Frank, you and I are old enough to remember the old "Where's Waldo" meme LOL? Would be perfect to insert within your outlined red circle

[WaveBreaking]

And now the MDR hurricane is bombing out in the WCAR I can’t with this run

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think there is one cloud in the region yet that will be associated with the spin up. Thus, it's "pin the tail on the donkey" every model cycle.

haha, maybe now we can take guesses on when the first cloud will show up. I'm thinking Sunday

[3090]

Imagine the NHC posting a cone right now? It would be from Tampa over to Texas coast. Just saying.

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW... GEFS 12z Ensembles still like the middle to eastern GOM. Not seeing much get past New Orleans longitude through 204 hours.