Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[eastcoastFL]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZKZhSKTj/06z-GEFS.jpg [/url]
06 GEFS... The GFS tracking WNW from NW Caribbean into W GOM and then sharp ENE turn in GOM along with dragging this out for the next 10 days, just doesn't seem fluid to me...

JMHO, likely outcomes, stays weak and trends W into Mexico or this area ramps up quick and then moves into EGOM or even over Cuba and E of SFL to me is just as likely...

My very amateur guess would be that it either develops in the Carib splits the Yucatan and then heads for the big bend or panhandle. Or it develops into a weak system that goes over the Yucatan then reemerges over the w.Gulf and heads towards TX/LA.

[Pipelines182]

Ha, 12z GFS essentially Ctrl Alt Deletes Tampa, who's up next on the 18z? I'm going to guess Biloxi

[jfk08c]

Wha?? 198 hr's and down to 973, but barely "nudges" east at the base of a large broad trough. Should be heading toward Ft. Myers with this steering in place LOL

Just had to stop and refuel for a day. NW movement now right towards Tampa Bay area

[Frank P]

942mb looks a tad north of TB...

[SouthFLTropics]

This GFS run is very reminiscent of Wilma.

[chaser1]

Down to 962 mb and moving due East at about 5mph. just north of NE Yucatan at 210 hrs. until UH-OH....... TAMPA

[Kazmit]

Of course there needs to be a run with a major slamming Tampa.

[Ivanhater]

And to add more confusion. Canadian into Louisiana

[chaser1]

222 hr. and the Atlantic ridge begins building west and southwest with the storm fully funneled in between the E. CONUS trough and the ridging to its east and SE. Storm suddenly moving NE at Tampa and pressure down to 947 mb

[Steve]

Back door trough dropping south on the Ne Coast grabs it. Plausible? Maybe?

[chaser1]

Of course there needs to be a run with a major slamming Tampa.

YEP! 942 Tampa (approx) landfall

[pcolaman]

Of course there needs to be a run with a major slamming Tampa.

949 into Tampa ! Don't think this has ever happened

[LAF92]

And to add more confusion. Canadian into Louisiana

As of now the GFS is the outlier compared to the ICON, Euro, Euro AI and the CMC. Interesting week ahead

[Category5Kaiju]

Whoa, this GFS run looks pretty ugly for Tampa

[Stormcenter]

The GFS and to be quite honest the other models too continue to come up with different tracks as often as i blink my eyes.

[tolakram]

Why even talk about the GFS? Euro AI is starting to go much weaker.

ICON is hopping on board for real now.

[Stormcenter]

We know that’s not happening.

Whoa, this GFS run looks pretty ugly for Tampa

[ROCK]

Next up GFS then Canadian. GFS will go out to 15 days and Canadian 10 which should be about landfall.

Yeah all about timing of the trof, how deep, how organized it will be, will it be overland much. So many unknowns…. Seen this like 50 billion times the last 20 years I have been in here. lol

IMO, ICON is hard to disagree with due to its record this season but I think since it run off some Euro parameters it has the same left bias. Whereas the GFS seems to be right biased most of the time. I am sort of perplexed with this set up given climo doesn’t really suggest anything TX/LA border south. I would think right and I am leaning right currently. Need to get more model runs!! Or cowbells whatever…

[psyclone]

I don't know where it's going other than to say it won't be Tampa bay. We don't mess with these. You can tell us a cat 5 is coming and people will shrug their shoulders and move on. I distinctly recall people grumbling on the lead up to Ian about how they never come here...and they were right...again. tampa bay will not prepare for a hurricane again until they are first crushed which hasn't happened in over a century. The professional class has given us too many false alarms and we are totally done. We just waitin' on a cold front...

[sphelps8681]

Everyone watching these models is like playing charades. Hoping your the one that guesses correct. But is there a saying if you are the first one it shows it is going to you probably are not. I am sure Tx/LA peeps will gladly let FL have this one. No harm to anyone of course.