Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[MHC Tracking]

GFS 06z loop in the GOM. landfall shifted east towards PC and surge on Mexico City would be catastrophic if it were to verify, but this will change too down the road, they always do this far out.
https://i.ibb.co/3mTM3pM/floop-gfs-2024091906-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

That's 1919 hurricane/Carla level size. TS winds from the Yucatan to NOLA simultaneously.

[LAF92]

06 GEFS ensembles through 228 hours big spread

[Pas_Bon]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/7ZqbR1Wv/IMG-1483.png [/url]
06 GEFS ensembles through 228 hours big spread

Everyone from Nicaragua to Newfoundland should be ensuring final plans are in place by the end of this weekend.

[Frank P]

the 00z Euro is just as bad...

[TomballEd]

I can't Giphy at work, but look at GEFS shear 180 to 240 hours. Ensembles show vert, very, very, favorable shear, under 10 knots, with an anticyclone aloft. Very hostile shear continues across the Northern Gulf the entire period. System could get very strong in W Gulf, before hitting shear as it approaches land. On the hostile shear front, see Francine and more notably Ian, as the storm approaches shear, ventilation/upward motion is maximized, so whatever storm forms wouldn't weaken dramatically as long as it doesn't stall under the shear for any length of time.

I found one unblocked program so I present to you OHC. ~100 kJ/cm^2 and very light shear would be co-located. If the storm is a slow mover in the S. Gulf, some of the model solutions with sub-930 mb pressures could be realistic.

[TomballEd]

the 00z Euro is just as bad...
https://i.ibb.co/0n2hKHG/ecens-2024-09-19-00-Z-240-34-015-261-505-16-423-286-301-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

A spread in the ensembles when the system won't form for another 3 or 4 days is to be expected. I wouldn't trust any one ensemble suite or op model that says Cat 4 in Tampa Bay or Cat 3 into NOLA before the hurricane models have a defined circulation.

The ensemble spread in the GEFS and the EPS are saying a wide option of strength and landfalls are possible.

[DunedinDave]

Very reminiscent of Opal looking at the GFS.

[3090]

Simply said. Waaaaayyy to early in this event for any remote guess 1) iF ANYTHING WILL FORM….2) THE INTENSITY….3) THE TRACK.

Message boards are interesting but certainly can be stressful. All good though.

Stay calm and just keep alert. All there is to do at this time.

And of course; post your thoughts on this message board…

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1836745029227876764

[Nimbus]

GFS 06z loop in the GOM. landfall shifted east towards PC and surge on Mexico City would be catastrophic if it were to verify, but this will change too down the road, they always do this far out.
https://i.ibb.co/3mTM3pM/floop-gfs-2024091906-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

That's 1919 hurricane/Carla level size. TS winds from the Yucatan to NOLA simultaneously.

GFS is confident enough to forecast a Jackie Gleason "away we go" in the BOC?
Probably a tomb stone run..

[Emmett_Brown]

So far today, it seems like the models want to delay development a bit, and therefore there is a larger spread in the ensemble tracks. The trend is for more uncertainty, which is very 2024

[Blown Away]

06 GEFS... The GFS tracking WNW from NW Caribbean into W GOM and then sharp ENE turn in GOM along with dragging this out for the next 10 days, just doesn't seem fluid to me...

JMHO, likely outcomes, stays weak and trends W into Mexico or this area ramps up quick and then moves into EGOM or even over Cuba and E of SFL to me is just as likely...

[kevin]

06z EC-AIFS. Much more east than the 00z (which basically had it over Mexico and never made it more than a TS). Landfall +222hrs west of New Orleans, 975 mb.

[LAF92]

06z EC-AIFS. Much more east than the 00z (which basically had it over Mexico and never made it more than a TS). Landfall +222hrs west of New Orleans, 975 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/EpOeNhB.png

The 00z EC AI made landfall in Mexico then event made its way to the west coast of Florida. It was a crazy run

[jlauderdal]

06z EC-AIFS. Much more east than the 00z (which basically had it over Mexico and never made it more than a TS). Landfall +222hrs west of New Orleans, 975 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/EpOeNhB.png

Back to reality, all interests from New Orleans to Key West and Points NE,same as yesterday. Have to watch fro development, the gyre can move to a snails pace while troughs go by

[Emmett_Brown]

It is just me, or does the modeling seem to depict a much larger than normal wind field for our possible distant future TC. It's almost like the gyre doesn't spawn the storm, the whole gyre becomes the storm

[ThomasW]

It is just me, or does the modeling seem to depict a much larger than normal wind field for our possible distant future TC. It's almost like the gyre doesn't spawn the storm, the whole gyre becomes the storm

Not sure whether it's legitimate or not. Models initially showed what would become Idalia being quite large, but when the disturbance got together, it was fairly small.

[TallyTracker]

06z EC-AIFS. Much more east than the 00z (which basically had it over Mexico and never made it more than a TS). Landfall +222hrs west of New Orleans, 975 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/EpOeNhB.png

That’s basically a Francine redux for the Louisiana area both in terms of track and intensity. I think the surge would be far worse though due to the size of the windfield and time to pile the water up on the coast.

The best GFS analong is Opal it seems. Before Michael, Opal was the big storm talked about in the Panama City area. That would be a major blow.

[StPeteMike]

Think 12z will be back to the eventual track for the future storm. I’m still not buying the NW/W direction over the Yucatán just yet.

Agree with jlauderdal anywhere between NO to South Florida should keep an eye out.

[Pipelines182]

:D Simply said. Waaaaayyy to early in this event for any remote guess 1) iF ANYTHING WILL FORM….2) THE INTENSITY….3) THE TRACK.

Message boards are interesting but certainly can be stressful. All good though.

Stay calm and just keep alert. All there is to do at this time.

And of course; post your thoughts on this message board…

Gotta disagree here. When the NHC issues a 40% chance of development that means that it is not too early to make some early predictions. Cyclogenesis is forecasted to occur within that 5-7 day window, which is when models tend to become more accurate. At this stage we can start discussing at some level of accuracy general development regions, initial motion, and synoptic scale features. It's certainly too early to start predicting landfall locations, timing, or intensity beyond those 7 days.