Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

Wondering if we are gonna have an Opal-esque track . Who knows but GFS is coming into line with Icon and Euro

[WaveBreaking]

06Z GFS has it oddly merge with an EPAC model storm and start to bomb out in the SW Gulf at h225.

[mantis83]

6Z gfs caving to the euro!

[canes92]

Why is the area highlighted when there's nothing there yet?

It's highlighted because we are expecting development to occur in that area. There is no disturbance to track, yet. We may not have an invest up until Monday, or Maybe Sunday evening.

Okay that makes sense. I thought it might be premature.

[eastcoastFL]

At 246hrs it’s still just churning in the western gulf down to 949mb and growing large in size. Looked like we would get a break when it was over the Yucatán but it appears to be moving very slowly in the western gulf.

[Hammy]

GFS trying to make the second coming of Opal but much larger based on 06z track, out to Sep 29

[N2FSU]

6z hits the brakes, deepens, and turns northeast:




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[kevin]

06z GFS, bombing out in the GOM at +258hrs, 946 mbar (note: the other system in the MDR also seems to go wild, another MH).

[Ivanhater]

Wondering if we are gonna have an Opal-esque track . Who knows but GFS is coming into line with Icon and Euro

There it goes

[eastcoastFL]

Wondering if we are gonna have an Opal-esque track . Who knows but GFS is coming into line with Icon and Euro

There it goes

Not loving this set up. Just the enormous size of this could have potentially devastating storm surge effects across large portions of the gulf.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks to be slightly weakening as it heads towards the panhandle again

[N2FSU]

+ 282hr




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[ThunderForce]

Bizarrely, despite the track shift between 00z and 06z causing it to go to the Yucatan, 06z ends up in basically the same location as 00z GFS, at 18z Monday September 30th. Same exact pressure too.

[kevin]

06z GFS, landfall just south of Panama City, +288 hrs. 957 mb after peaking at 945 mb.

[N2FSU]

Watching with keen interest from Tallahassee:




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[N2FSU]

Apalachicola hit




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[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/RyanNBC6/status/1836607480622645720

[Frank P]

GFS 06z loop in the GOM. landfall shifted east towards PC and surge on Mexico City would be catastrophic if it were to verify, but this will change too down the road, they always do this far out.

[Stormlover70]

Too close for comfort here on the west coast north of Tampa. WE have dodged many bullets. Hopefully we dodge this one!

[MHC Tracking]

06Z GFS has it oddly merge with an EPAC model storm and start to bomb out in the SW Gulf at h225.

In reality, would be shocked if the two interact beyond causing each other outflow restriction.
There was a similar situation modeled in 2021 with Nora and Ida. In the end, the GFS turned out to be significantly overblowing Nora, as so often occurs with its mid-range depictions of EPAC storms.