ATL: GORDON - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 28.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward
speed is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake





Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024

Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic
today. This formation is based on scatterometer depicting a
closed circulation center, and organized deep convection based on
TAFB/SAB satellite classifications. Satellite imagery also
indicates that the low-level circulation has consolidated beneath
the mid-level center based upon visible imagery The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt, based on the scatterometer data.

The depression is estimated to be moving 285/16 kt. The system
should move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days
with the storm being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of
the Azores. Confidence in the depression's track gradually lessens
beyond forecast hour 72 as the synoptic scale flow becomes more
complex. The depression will probably gradually slow down between
hours 72-120 as it becomes caught between a pair of upper level
ridges; one north of the Azores and another north of the Lesser
Antilles. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough in the North
Atlantic will attempt to deepen far enough south to steer the
depression northward. How much the upper trough digs southward
will determine if and when the storm takes on a more northerly
track, or if it remains at a lower latitude longer. The forecast
was placed just south of consensus this forecast period.

Wind shear is not expected to be a big hindrance in its
development initially while SSTs along its forecast path will
generally be around 27C. Thus gradually intensification is shown
for the first couple of days. However, shear is forecast to
increase thereafter along with more marginal dry air conditions.
This forecast leans more heavily on the regional hurricane models
which show more modest intensification than the statistical
dynamical tools but could be conservative at the end depending on
how much latitude the system gains.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.0N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

Satellite images show there has been little change with the
depression this afternoon. Although deep convection has faded
some, this is pretty typical at this time of day. The initial wind
speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and
subjective Dvorak classifications.

The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the
motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward
speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying
mid-level trough over the Atlantic. The big change to note is
that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to
recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward).
The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future
adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend
(continuity prevents a larger change).

Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of
days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time.
Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air
intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still
a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track
uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and
the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 16.2N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

Periodic bursts of convection have been growing and fading in the
tropical depression this evening. Earlier microwave imagery from
SSMIS showed a fragmented curved band wrapping around the northern
and western portion of the circulation. Subjective estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T-2.5/35 kt and T-1.5/25 kt respectively and based
on a blend of these, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 285/15 kt along the
southern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the northeastern
Atlantic. This motion should continue for the next day or so until
the forward speed decreases when the ridge is eroded by an
amplifying mid-level trough. By the end of the forecast period, the
system should begin to turn northward toward a break in the ridge.
Beyond 72 h, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance
due to the models varying the timing of the turn to the north. The
latest track forecast is similar to the previous prediction, and
lies near the various consensus aids.

Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
strengthening for the next couple of days. Afterwards The
depression is forecast to move into a drier air mass and it could
experience moderate wind shear and possible dry air intrusions. The
long range intensity forecast is also rather uncertain and few
changes have been made to the new NHC intensity forecast, which lies
near HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 16.5N 31.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

The system has changed little in organization overnight, with
limited deep convection and slight banding features. An
AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still
somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt
and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30
kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is
also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from
UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an
estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion
with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the
forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the
ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to
the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4-
to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow
motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC
prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus
solutions.

Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual
strengthening during the next few days, with low- to
moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the
models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of
the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass
over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but
shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery
this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band
with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However,
given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the
center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots,
or at the lower end of the estimates.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close
to the global model consensus and places less weight on the
regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker
and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is
slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this
cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next
day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in
the next five days. However, there is potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
above the latest model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.8N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on
satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation
and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it
has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective
Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical
storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower
end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive
evidence of a tropical storm.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS-based guidance has
trended much farther west and faster, showing a weakening system at
long range. However, the ECMWF and its ensemble members still show
a risk of a stronger system, so the forecast will stay on the
northeastern side of the track guidance. The new NHC forecast is
faster and left of the previous one owing to the bulk of the
guidance shifts during this cycle.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance is even lower than the
last cycle. Slight strengthening seems most probable within the
marginal environment, and the forecast continues to show a 45-kt
peak in 5 days. There is also the potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
one, on the high side of the guidance envelope.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hurley/Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

The depression has been holding steady this evening. After a lull
in the convective activity which exposed the low-level circulation,
thunderstorms have been building steadily to the east of the center.
Unfortunately, the scatterometer pass missed the core of the system
once again. The initial intensity remains at 30 kt, close to the
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

A subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is steering the
system west-northwestward at about 14 kt. As the ridge weakens
during the next few days, the cyclone should gradually slow and turn
more westward. There is still a large spread in the track guidance
envelope early next week, which seems partially related to the depth
of the vortex. The ECMWF solution shows a much stronger system that
turns the cyclone to the north sooner compared to the GFS and
GFS-based regional models showing a weaker system that moves faster
and stays in the low-level westerly flow. The latest NHC track
forecast has been nudged a little to the south and lies between the
previous prediction and the consensus aids.

Marginal environmental conditions appear to be preventing the
depression from making any appreciable intensity changes. Visible
satellite imagery from earlier today showed a band of Saharan dust
wrapping around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The
intensity guidance has shifted downward again this cycle, with many
models showing a steady-to-weakening system over the next 3-4 days.
By the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in
the intensity guidance as noted earlier. The latest NHC intensity
forecast has been decreased slightly but remains on the high side of
the various aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

The depression has an asymmetric structure due to moderate
west-northwesterly shear, with the center lying west of generally
shapeless convective clusters. Because there has largely been
little change in the system's organization, and there is quite a
range among the subjective and objective estimates, the intensity
remains 30 kt out of respect for continuity.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest
(290/12 kt). A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of
the depression is becoming more pronounced, and the track guidance
indicates that the system should turn westward by tonight and slow
down further through much of the forecast period as it moves across
the central tropical Atlantic. In fact, by days 4 and 5, an
amplifying shortwave trough to the north is likely to cause the
cyclone to crawl at speeds near or less than 5 kt and gradually turn
northwestward. The official forecast is close to the previous
prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward
on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends.

In terms of moisture, the environment across the tropical Atlantic
has not been kind to weather systems over the past couple of months.
The official forecast still allows for the possibility of the
depression becoming a tropical storm today or tonight, however an
even drier air mass to the west is likely to cause the cyclone to
continue struggling convectively. In fact, all of the global models
show the cyclone's wind field weakening over the weekend, with the
GFS suggesting the depression could degenerate into a remnant low.
For now, the NHC forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for
the entire forecast period, but it does show weakening in a couple
of days. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system
reaches a slightly more moist and low-shear environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 19.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

While some west-northwesterly shear exists over the cyclone,
a combination of Dvorak satellite estimates and improved structure
on satellite imagery since earlier this morning has led to the
depression being upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon. The initial
wind speed is set to 35 kt, based on consensus Dvorak estimates
around that value.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest
(295/10 kt). While a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the
north of Gordon is becoming more pronounced due to the possible
retrogression of an upper low to its east-northeast, this appears to
be only slowing the storm down. The track guidance indicates that
the cyclone should turn westward by tonight and move slowly
throughout much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, an
amplifying shortwave trough to the north could cause Gordon to
gradually turn northwestward, assuming the system can re-intensify.
The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the
first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5
following the latest model trends.

Gordon has some chance to intensify today before moving deeper into
the moisture-starved environment across the tropical Atlantic, and
some weakening is anticipated this weekend. While the shear isn't
expected to be too hostile, any re-intensification during next week
is expected to be slow, and there is a chance that Gordon could
degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official forecast keeps
the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period.
Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a
slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.8N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 20.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

Gordon continues to produce a convective canopy of cold cloud
tops near -75 C mainly to the east of the center, due to some
moderate westerly wind shear. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass
depicted some banding features forming as well. Subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained steady
around 35 kt. Thus, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to deal with some westerly wind shear
and has about 18 hours before encountering a drier airmass across
the central tropical Atlantic. So the current forecast shows the
potential for some slight strengthening before the unfavorable
airmass. Models depict that the cyclones wind field will weaken and
the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression. Simulated
satellite depicts that the cyclone will struggle convectively
through the middle part of the period and there is a chance that
Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official
forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire
forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the
system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear
environment.

Gordon is moving slightly slower toward the west-northwest at 290/9
kt. The system is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge
which will cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more
westward by tonight. This slow westward to west-southwestward motion
will continue through much of the forecast period. An amplified
trough is forecast to move to the north of Gordon towards the end of
the period which could cause a turn toward the northwest and
northward by the end of the period. However, there is quite a spread
in the model guidance towards the end of the period due to the
differences in intensity and if Gordon is able to regain strength
toward the end of the period. The latest NHC forecast track is
slightly to the left of the previous and near the simple consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.8N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.7N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 19.5N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 19.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 19.3N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.3N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 19.9N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 20.8N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

A 13/2045 UTC CSA RADARSAT Constellation Mission VH polarization
image indicated that Gordon's surface center was farther east than
previously indicated. Subsequently, the surface center has become
more obscured while the convective mass has expanded somewhat over
the western portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an
intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

Although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows the westerly
shear gradually diminishing through the period, the dry, stable
thermodynamic surrounding environment is expected to be the primary
inhibiting parameter. Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low
around mid-period, although not shown explicitly in the NHC
forecast. Beyond day 3, the official forecast shows gradual
re-strengthening while atmospheric conditions become less hostile.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
based on the IVCN intensity consensus and below the Decay SHIPS
statistical guidance.

Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 280/8 kt
and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending
west-southwestward from high pressure over the Azores. The cyclone
should continue slowly toward the west to west-southwest during
the next 72 hours. Afterward, a break in the subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid-
to upper-level trough. As Gordon approaches this growing weakness
in the ridge, the cyclone should turn toward the northwest and
north. This forecast track scenario, however, assumes that the
cyclone strengthens toward the end of the period. Only a slight
adjustment to the left of the previous forecast beyond day 3 was
made to lie closer to the TVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 19.8N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 19.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 19.4N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.1N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 21.2N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

The center of Gordon appears to be racing out ahead of the deep
convective mass to its east in recent proxy-visible satellite
images. This appearance is consistent with moderate deep-layer
westerly shear over the cyclone as indicated by model soundings.
Earlier scatterometer data showed the extent of tropical-storm-force
winds was about 100 n mi in the northern semicircle of the storm.
The circulation on the southwest side of the storm was not as well
defined, with relatively weak winds and signs of elongation. A blend
of the latest subjective TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates and objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which
is also consistent with the scatterometer winds.

The sheared storm is moving into a drier and more stable air mass,
which is likely to induce some weakening during the next couple of
days. In fact, some models continue to show the possibility of
Gordon losing organized convection and degenerating to a remnant
low. The official NHC forecast brings Gordon to a depression in 24 h
but maintains it as a tropical cyclone for now. Environmental
conditions should become less hostile by the middle of next week,
and the NHC forecast indicates some re-strengthening could occur
during that time. This part of the forecast remains conservative,
as there are still several dynamical models that show little, if
any, re-intensification later next week.

Gordon appears to be moving west-northwestward (285/8 kt), but a
gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast over
the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track
guidance. Track forecast confidence decreases at days 3-5, where
the motion appears more sensitive to whether or not Gordon
restrengthens. A weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge is
forecast to develop, which would allow the system to gain some
latitude if its vertical depth matches that steering level.
However, a shallower system could continue moving slowly westward
within the low-level flow. The updated NHC forecast shows a more
gradual turn toward the northwest and north at days 3-5, in best
agreement with the TVCA simple consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 20.1N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

Gordon's center is exposed and located west of its deep convection.
This structure is a symptom of the moderate westerly vertical wind
shear that continues to plague the tropical storm. Gordon is also
struggling with the entrainment of dry and stable airmass. Despite
these environmental challenges, a recent scatterometer pass shows
the cyclone maintaining 40 kt maximum sustained winds. This data is
the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory, and agrees
with a blend of the objective and subjective estimates. The
scatterometer pass also shows a lopsided wind field, with tropical
storm force winds limited to the northern semicircle of Gordon. In
the southern semicircle, winds are weak and the vortex shows signs
of elongation.

The cyclone continues to move into a dry and stable airmass, which
in conjunction with the ongoing shear is forecast to induce
weakening today and tonight. Gordon is forecast to become a tropical
depression on Sunday. Thereafter, the forecast maintains the cyclone
as a tropical depression through the early part of next week, but it
is possible that the system degenerates into a remnant low or a
surface trough during that time. In fact, the GFS model indicates
convection could collapse as soon as tonight or early Sunday. The
ECMWF model maintains pulsing convection a bit longer. By the middle
of next week, the environment should become less hostile and allow
for some re-strengthening of Gordon. The intensity forecast is
largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains on the
lower end of the guidance beyond 72 h due to the uncertain future of
the cyclone.

Gordon is tracking westward 280/8 kt, and a gradual turn toward the
west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the next
couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track guidance.
Model spread increases beyond 72 h due to differences in intensity
and the overall structure of Gordon at that time. The current
forecast continues the system slowly west-southwestward due to lack
of steering flow. Towards the end of the forecast period, an
approaching shortwave trough will weaken the mid-level subtropical
ridge and would allow the system to turn northward. The updated
track forecast is close to the previous advisory near the simple
consensus aids, and shows a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north beyond Day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

Over the past couple of hours, the center of Gordon had been
exposed to the west of the convective canopy. However, there have
been recent bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm
and the overall satellite presentation of the system has improved.
The environment surrounding Gordon is still unfavorable, with
moderate westerly vertical wind shear and a dry stable airmass
continuing to have some impact on the cyclone. Gordon is likely in
somewhat of a steady state, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt
for this advisory. This agrees with the subjective and objective
intensity estimates.

The tropical storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday,
as it continues to experience moderate shear and a drier and more
stable airmass. Model guidance has trended weaker towards the end of
the period and the intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement
with the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Global models have continued
to trend towards Gordon struggling to produce convection, and it is
possible Gordon may degenerate into a remnant low or surface trough
by the middle of the forecast period. The current forecast keeps
Gordon as a tropical cyclone through the period, although this could
be generous and subsequent changes may be needed in future
advisories.

Gordon is tracking westward at 270/9 kt, and a gradual turn toward
the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the
next couple of days, in agreement with the latest track guidance. A
shortwave trough approaching from the northwest of Gordon will open
a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge and allow the tropical
cyclone to turn slowly northward. The new track forecast is nearly
the same as the previous forecast, except with a slightly slower
forward motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 20.3N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

Gordon's surface circulation has become fully exposed this evening
and is displaced about 150 mi west of the remaining deep convective
mass. The deep-layer westerly shear likely has increased during the
past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this
advisory and is based on constrained subjective satellite intensity
T-number estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Based on the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and
global model sounding forecasts, Gordon should continue to struggle
and weaken during the next few days while moving through a harsh
thermodynamic environment. In fact, the global models agree that
the cyclone will become a remnant low toward the end of the week as
it commences a gradual north-northwestward turn. For now, the
surface circulation is expected to remain intact, and Gordon is
expected to continue moving generally northward, where atmospheric
conditions could become less hostile. The official intensity
forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5
in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The
Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to
show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently,
subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global
models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above.

Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward or
245/9 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge
extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the North
Atlantic. Gordon should continue toward the west-southwest or west
during the next 60-72 hours. Afterward, a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response
to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the cyclone
approaches this break in the ridge, the cyclone should gradually
turn toward the north-northwest by the end of the period. This
forecast track scenario once again assumes that the cyclone
will survive during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with
Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed
center of circulation. An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed
that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the
north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates
suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time. The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT
data should help us re-assess Gordon's maximum winds later this
morning.

Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is forecast to
turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken
during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down
considerably. A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify
northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and
Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than
5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on
days 3-5. The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south
of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast,
trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a
slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5.

Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident
upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a
tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models
show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple
of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate
into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If
Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a
little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of
the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon's center remains displaced at least 120 n mi to the west of a
ragged-looking area of deep convection. Using a shear pattern from
satellite imagery, Dvorak data T-numbers correspond to an intensity
below tropical storm strength. However,scatterometer data, which
did not completely sample the circulation, suggest that the system's
intensity may still be close to to 35 kt, so Gordon is kept at
tropical storm status for this advisory.

The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current
motion estimate of 250/8 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level
high pressure system to its north and northwest. This high is
forecast to gradually weaken which should result in a slowing of the
cyclone's forward speed over the next few days. In 3-4 days, the
high is predicted to shift farther west, resulting in a turn toward
the north. By late in the forecast period, a broad trough becomes
established to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is
reasonably close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus.

Gordon has been experiencing strong westerly vertical wind shear
for the past couple of days, associated with a large upper-level
trough over the eastern Atlantic. The global models show this
trough moving eastward, away from the tropical cyclone. As a
result, there may be some relaxation of the shear over the next
several days. Although Gordon has been disrupted so much by the
shear that it could degenerate into a remnant low soon, the more
conducive upper-level environment predicted by the dynamical
guidance could result in some restrengthening. This is also
indicated by the latest SHIPS model output. As a compromise, the
official forecast shows little change in strength through the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 19.2N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.1N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 19.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.4N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 21.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

n Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon's center remains well displaced to the west of the area of
deep convection. There recently was a convective burst near the
center, and it remains to be seen if this is an intermittent pulse
of convection or if the system will try to maintain convection.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased between 25
to 35 kt. Using an average of these estimates, the intensity for
this advisory is set to 30 kt, and Gordon has weakened into a
tropical depression.

The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current
motion estimate of 260/7 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level
ridge to to the north. The steering flow is expected to weaken as
the ridge to the north becomes less pronounced, which should result
in Gordon slowing down considerably. By late in the forecast period,
a trough develops to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected
to cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, nudged
slightly to the right and a little faster towards the end of the
period near the HFIP corrected consensus.

Gordon continues to experience strong westerly vertical wind shear
and is within fairly stable airmass. It still remains possible that
the the system could degenerate into a remnant low, as it struggles
to produce convection. The environmental conditions improve towards
the end of the forecast period that depicts that the system could
re-strengthen. The current intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast but does show Gordon becoming a tropical storm
again towards the end of the period, if it can survive the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone tonight. While
the low-level circulation continues to be well-defined, the
convection associated with this circulation is meager, and barely
meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Subjective and
objective estimates continue to decrease this evening, and the
initial intensity is set to 25 kt this advisory.

The tropical depression continues to move south of due west,
estimated at 260/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day
or so as the shallow cyclone is primarily steered by a low to
mid-level ridge positioned to its west-northwest. Thereafter, a
significant weakness in this steering flow is forecast to develop,
related to a non-tropical low expected to drop equatorward towards
Gordon. This steering change is expected to cause the tropical
cyclone to first slow its forward motion, and then gradually turn
poleward, moving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast
period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and
faster compared to the previous one, and the NHC track is once
again nudged a bit more right and faster compared to the prior
advisory.

Gordon is struggling mightily against very dry mid-level air, and
this environment is unlikely to change much over the next few days.
In fact, it would not be surprising to see Gordon become a remnant
low at any time if convection does not soon return in a more
prominent way near the center. After 48 h, the environment is
forecast to begin moistening some while vertical wind shear is
expected to be fairly low, providing an opportunity for Gordon to
re-intensify, presuming there is enough of a system left to take
advantage of the improving environmental conditions. The NHC
intensity forecast is not much different from the prior one aside
from the weaker initial intensity, and assumes Gordon will survive
in the short-term, which is not a forgone conclusion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

The convection that developed during the evening hours on the east
side of Gordon has persisted through the night. Nighttime CIRA
proxy vis imagery suggests that the low-level center of Gordon is
near the western edge of this convection. Subjective and objective
intensity estimates range from 25 to 33 kt. In the absence of
ASCAT data, no change is made to the 25-kt intensity carried in
the previous NHC advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/7 kt.
Gordon is being steered westward by the subtropical ridge, situated
to the north of the tropical depression. This setup should
continue to steer Gordon slowly westward through today.
Thereafter, a frontal low located to the north of the ridge is
forecast to drop equatorward towards Gordon, creating a weakness
in the subtropical ridge. As a result of this steering change,
Gordon should initially slow its forward motion, and then turn
toward the north-northeast while gradually accelerating. The
consensus track models have continued to shift a bit to the right
and faster, and the latest NHC forecast is again nudged in that
direction.

Gordon has been doing a remarkable job fighting off environmental
dry air given how the area of convection has maintained itself
overnight relatively close to the low-level center. Gordon is
forecast to remain in a dry mid-level environment for the next few
days, although some slight moistening of the environment is
possible beyond 24 h while the vertical shear is forecast to remain
relatively low. Although it is still possible that Gordon could
degenerate to a remnant low, if the cyclone is able to survive the
next 24 h, then its chances of surviving the next 5 days would seem
to increase. There is also some uncertainty as to how Gordon's
circulation could potentially interact with a non-tropical low in 3
to 4 days. If Gordon then survives its interaction with the
non-tropical low, some strengthening would be possible in 4 to 5
days as shown by some of the global models. No changes were made to
the previous NHC intensity prediction, which still assumes Gordon
will survive in the short term.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.2N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen