Possible development offshore the southeast U.S. (Is invest 95L)

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has a TS off the Carolinas next week, we'll see if other models get on board or if this run is a fluke.

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS has a TS off the Carolinas next week, we'll see if other models get on board or if this run is a fluke.
https://i.imgur.com/9cnupGj.png

The 12z Euro actually had this same system.

[Teban54]

0z GFS has a TS off the Carolinas next week, we'll see if other models get on board or if this run is a fluke.
https://i.imgur.com/9cnupGj.png

The 12z Euro actually had this same system.

Now add 0z Euro to the list.

[cycloneye]

I split some posts from the global models discussion thread that are related to the new lemon of NHC to create the new thread.

[AJC3]

There's a weak convectionless swirl traced out by low clouds near 29.5N 73W this morning.

It's trackable in the forecast H85 vort fields, and appears to be the seedling for this advertised system.

[Kazmit]

A good analog for this would be Ophelia which occurred almost exactly a year ago in the same spot.

[cycloneye]

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or
tropical development is possible during the early part of next week
while the system drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Hammy]

Model support has completely vanished on the afternoon runs, in large part due to showing the low closing off further west and moving inland before it can do much

Tomorrow will show whether this is a trend or just the usual jumping around

[cycloneye]

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline
this weekend. Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves generally
northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Kind of surprised this seems to be getting so little attention. Still tired from the Francine excitement?

[Teban54]

Kind of surprised this seems to be getting so little attention. Still tired from the Francine excitement?

I think a lot of folks have simply quit watching the tropics by now, either because they burned out from model watching (that often turned out to be nothing), or they think the season will just be a total dud from here and not worth paying attention to.

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z GFS and Euro both have development off the of the Carolina coast by Monday, heading inland by Tuesday, so there won't be much lead time. Hopefully it will stay weak. For such a seemingly inactive season vs expectations, there have been a lot of landfalls

[chaser1]

I think more then anything the reason for a minimal degree of interest for this disturbance has more to do with the limited "top end" intensity. I would guess this will organize to the extent of ranging from a subtropical depression, to possibly getting tagged with a name just before landfall. A high end TS or Hurricane would garner more interest though

[TomballEd]

GEFS show 2 NS making landfall, and it looks like a couple more would be nameable before dissipating. Hard to get excited about a 40 knot storm. The people in the Carolinas probably don't mind this isn't blowing up the weather forums and Twitter/X.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend
along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form
early next week while the system moves generally northwestward
toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found
in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[xironman]

HRRR develops the low by tonight



Meanwhile the GFS drops the upper level winds

[invest man]

Does anyone think NHC will start a PTC advisory on this system for the Carolina's now it is at 50%? If so best idea when? Looking at satellite loops appears a low center is trying to for in a small burst which appears over the gulf stream. Looks like it is beginning to detach from the front also. Things can spin up in this region pretty quickly. We will see.

[xironman]

A bit of a twist there

[chaser1]

Does anyone think NHC will start a PTC advisory on this system for the Carolina's now it is at 50%? If so best idea when? Looking at satellite loops appears a low center is trying to for in a small burst which appears over the gulf stream. Looks like it is beginning to detach from the front also. Things can spin up in this region pretty quickly. We will see.

Generally, NHC seems to prefer to use PTC advisories when they are fairly confident that TS conditions are probable to occur. That would certainly include a low end TS. I've seen them name very marginal TS's in the past (that I never would) so it is certainly a possibility. The GFS is the outlier right now with 998mb at about 48 hr's. That said, the NAM projects about the same pressures so it is not unreasonable. Subjectively, I'd lean against classifying a 35-40 knot subtropical low and simply apply local forecast office Gale and/or Special Weather advisories, but I'm not NHC So yeah, I think they'll err on the side of caution and issue PTC advisories later tonight if the GFS (and NAM) don't back down by then. Thereafter, getting named will depend on if it takes on some tropical characteristics and some kind of verifiable sustained winds.

[HurricaneEnzo]

They need to go ahead and make this an invest or PTC. Not much time here until we may have a tropical system onshore. Probably very weak but still.

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