ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Would you speculate that it's landfall strength will be downgraded in the post-season analysis?

[TallyTracker]

For being 400 miles from the center, the panhandle is getting soaked! 6-8 inches is forecast for Wakulla County just south of Tallahassee. We need some rain though as August was very dry.

[kassi]

I could be wrong as it's still early, but based on reports I've seen, it seems like cat. 1 Beryl was far more destructive than cat. 2 Francine.

[jlauderdal]

Cat 2 winds would've been along the immediate coast, since it weakened quickly once it moved over land since that disrupted the water source that was keeping the core intact and keeping the shear at bay.

Winds were barely at Cat 1 intensity by the time the remnants of the eyewall reached New Orleans

Have you ever been to south Louisiana. There's about as much land as in the Florida Everglades. It's all swamp. Throughout all the oil platform observations yesterday, winds were generally about 85 mph max, and that's on deepwater platforms 100+ feet up. What was the highest observed sustained wind? I think I saw a sustained wind of 68 mph in Dulac, right near the coast. My coworker saw a gust to 98 mph there. Any sustained hurricane force winds appear to have remained offshore. Remember, hurricanes are measured by sustained wind, not gusts. A 60 mph TS can produce wind gusts over 100 mph.

Brown water as they were referring to it on WWL yesterday and night on the live stream. Jamie Rhome was on and explained the increase to cat 2, one measurement from the plane but they go with the max sustained and then it went into a saffir-simpson discussion with the on-air met. They were downplaying it on air yesterday, I was surprised. There was a whole bunch of mixed messaging going on that station yesterday and last night. Too much focus on what Ida did, completely different storm and not enough on the real effects and then a band sets up and goes right into new orleans.

[canebeard]

That sounds similar to what happened with Beryl at our house in Houston. The eye went right over us and the wind came back but almost no rain. Very strange.

Over the years we have observed that many a northward moving hurricane that makes landfall on the north Gulf Coast, seem to have "nothing" much in the way of severe conditions on the south side of the eye.

[Ubuntwo]

Cat 2 winds would've been along the immediate coast, since it weakened quickly once it moved over land since that disrupted the water source that was keeping the core intact and keeping the shear at bay.

Winds were barely at Cat 1 intensity by the time the remnants of the eyewall reached New Orleans

Have you ever been to south Louisiana. There's about as much land as in the Florida Everglades. It's all swamp. Throughout all the oil platform observations yesterday, winds were generally about 85 mph max, and that's on deepwater platforms 100+ feet up. What was the highest observed sustained wind? I think I saw a sustained wind of 68 mph in Dulac, right near the coast. My coworker saw a gust to 98 mph there. Any sustained hurricane force winds appear to have remained offshore. Remember, hurricanes are measured by sustained wind, not gusts. A 60 mph TS can produce wind gusts over 100 mph.

It is still enough friction to reduce MSW. Nothing close to 130kt sustained or even 100kt sustained was recorded in Ida or Laura. And those had dropsonde/SFMR/FL consensus on at least mid grade 4 winds at landfall. For a closer analogy, cat 2 Delta’s highest observation at landfall was 64kt and even that was at 12m instead of 10m.

[Woofde]

I could be wrong as it's still early, but based on reports I've seen, it seems like cat. 1 Beryl was far more destructive than cat. 2 Francine.

I chased both. Strictly speaking for wind, I'd say they packed about the same punch. Similar levels of structure damage, but I'd give the edge to Francine. What I found very interesting was how Francine's western eyewall was solidly more intense than the eastern. I caught it first in Houma and thought "Okay, that felt like a Solid Cat 1, no back side to it so might as well catch the western part on the way out." It surprised me compared to the east, that band of northerlies was absolutely ripping. Lots of trees down.

[Woofde]

Would you speculate that it's landfall strength will be downgraded in the post-season analysis?

Doubtful, plenty of recon and radar observations to back it up. A storm only needs a small swath of said winds to classify it. It's very common for surface observations to be lacking when a storm barely makes said Category. This is especially the case when they hit a rural area.

[cajungal]

We got slammed here in Thibodaux. Never saw the water come up that high. We ended up getting water in our house. Luckily only our study and laundry room and not entire house.

Sorry to hear that Cajungal. Rough in Raceland too. Street was flooded but only made it about half way up the driveway. I had to put towels by my east facing door to stop the wind from pushing water inside. Once we got into the eye, it was done. Still some wind but no more rain. Out of power, on generator. Not a lot of damage in my neighborhood that I could see. FYI…Think they extended the curfew in Lafourche until 10am tomorrow.

My brother also lives in Raceland. He said they made it ok. Some of their neighbors were close to taking in water though

[Kazmit]

Would you speculate that it's landfall strength will be downgraded in the post-season analysis?

Doubtful, plenty of recon and radar observations to back it up. A storm only needs a small swath of said winds to classify it. It's very common for surface observations to be lacking when a storm barely makes said Category. This is especially the case when they hit a rural area.

Yeah, they don't call them maximum sustained winds for nothing. If the whole eyewall had cat 2 winds it would probably be a cat 3.

[Teban54]

Would you speculate that it's landfall strength will be downgraded in the post-season analysis?

Doubtful, plenty of recon and radar observations to back it up. A storm only needs a small swath of said winds to classify it. It's very common for surface observations to be lacking when a storm barely makes said Category. This is especially the case when they hit a rural area.

Good point -- I think the real issue here is conveying to the public that a storm landfalling as Category X doesn't mean that all places on land that caught the eyewall will experience Category X winds, especially those further inland or on the weaker sides of the eyewall.

[vbhoutex]

Busted my ass and lost a phone temporarily. All streets flooded around my apartment. Chaos

Was thinking about you! Probably more than you bargained for, and now it's dark.I know it sucks hearing the gusts wondering if the lights will stay on / house won't flood. I lost power for the entire Laura event and fought off water inches from my door until 4am while under nearly constant tornado warnings. First time a storm literally scared me and I've felt different about them ever since. Owning a home and having a family with young children completely changes the game.

I don't know if you were in the city for Ida, but thankfully, the structural damage seems minimal from what I've seen.

Exactly what I said after Alicia in '83! those children are now both in their 40s with families of their own. Glad you made it through ok! I am so over hurricanes years on or near the Gulf coast! But, I am still a weather nerd so...

[Steve]

We got slammed here in Thibodaux. Never saw the water come up that high. We ended up getting water in our house. Luckily only our study and laundry room and not entire house.

Sorry to hear that Cajungal. Rough in Raceland too. Street was flooded but only made it about half way up the driveway. I had to put towels by my east facing door to stop the wind from pushing water inside. Once we got into the eye, it was done. Still some wind but no more rain. Out of power, on generator. Not a lot of damage in my neighborhood that I could see. FYI…Think they extended the curfew in Lafourche until 10am tomorrow.

My brother also lives in Raceland. He said they made it ok. Some of their neighbors were close to taking in water though

My niece in Raceland lost some trees and part of a fence. She's over by the second bridge Highway 1 side. My sister in Lockport lost power but had no damage. Brother in New Orleans lost power as did sister in Mandeville. City flooded. I was walking in flipflops because of the water and hit a slick spot and feet went out from under me. I lost my phone but went back down with my other one to try to find it which luckily I did and luckily these days they're mostly waterproof. Around where I live it was just mostly street flooding. Bayou St. John was within its banks but almost all the streets had water. My daughter lives in Old Metairie, and they had water in the streets as did a lot of Metairie. She said she had some puddles in her car this am but opened her car to the sun to dry it out. I saw some video of flooded streets all over Metairie so I'm sure some people got water in their houses. Again, this was more of a fun storm for me. I wasn't really worried about any personal impacts since my car was parked in an elevated garage. Glad to get a little tropical action without too much pain. Things got a little intense as the eyewall got close but then it was mostly just quiet for a while. West winds and different air feel today under partly cloudy skies. Glad for a bit of a break in the action for us for a while.

[cajungal]

Sorry to hear that Cajungal. Rough in Raceland too. Street was flooded but only made it about half way up the driveway. I had to put towels by my east facing door to stop the wind from pushing water inside. Once we got into the eye, it was done. Still some wind but no more rain. Out of power, on generator. Not a lot of damage in my neighborhood that I could see. FYI…Think they extended the curfew in Lafourche until 10am tomorrow.

My brother also lives in Raceland. He said they made it ok. Some of their neighbors were close to taking in water though

My niece in Raceland lost some trees and part of a fence. She's over by the second bridge Highway 1 side. My sister in Lockport lost power but had no damage. Brother in New Orleans lost power as did sister in Mandeville. City flooded. I was walking in flipflops because of the water and hit a slick spot and feet went out from under me. I lost my phone but went back down with my other one to try to find it which luckily I did and luckily these days they're mostly waterproof. Around where I live it was just mostly street flooding. Bayou St. John was within its banks but almost all the streets had water. My daughter lives in Old Metairie, and they had water in the streets as did a lot of Metairie. She said she had some puddles in her car this am but opened her car to the sun to dry it out. I saw some video of flooded streets all over Metairie so I'm sure some people got water in their houses. Again, this was more of a fun storm for me. I wasn't really worried about any personal impacts since my car was parked in an elevated garage. Glad to get a little tropical action without too much pain. Things got a little intense as the eyewall got close but then it was mostly just quiet for a while. West winds and different air feel today under partly cloudy skies. Glad for a bit of a break in the action for us for a while.

I am so done. If it wouldn’t be for having aging parents nearby and a 10 year old with severe autism that has a waiver to pay for his services only through the state of Louisiana, I would be looking to move.

[AnnularCane]

Neither my dad or my aunt lost power. My uncle did for a while but it's back on already, although apparently one of his cats was a bit traumatized. Not sure about any other relatives in the area.

I know I can still get effects but I think I prefer observing these storms from a bit more of a distance. Especially after Katrina.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Would you speculate that it's landfall strength will be downgraded in the post-season analysis?

Doubtful, plenty of recon and radar observations to back it up. A storm only needs a small swath of said winds to classify it. It's very common for surface observations to be lacking when a storm barely makes said Category. This is especially the case when they hit a rural area.

If as you say, they have "plenty of recon data" to back it up??? I'd sure like to see it! I think Wxman57 was much closer to the truth in his assessment. #1 I always double check the recon... their recon data consisted of ONE reading of Flight level winds, and using an algorithm to spin it down to surface level. #2 I know of no radar that showed winds at surface level anywhere near Cat2. #3 Yes I do know they only need a small swath of winds to classify it as they used something like 2 microbits to elevate Zeta to a 3, a storm in which I never lost power; a storm in which I almost laughingly filmed the TV set as the EYE passed over, and showing the maximum gusts throughout the area and only a gust of barely 80 mph in ONE location showed up. They didn't want to show "sustained" winds because none were even hurricane force--anywhere that I noted. That said, Zeta was MUCH more windy than Francine, I recorded both, but Francine was much more RAIN than Zeta. It happens.
I went through Katrina, Gustav, Zeta and Ida, all majors, right here. I sat in my truck filming much of Ida, which is kind of crazy for a man my age, but power went out EARLY and it didn't come back for 2 weeks. #3 Some folks anxious to defend Francine's category actually threw out numbers on Ida that they can't back up. I have the report from Ida and yes quite a few don't show what we might have expected from a bona-fide Cat 4, however they fail to mention that the NHC and NOAA had made the point to indicate that MANY instrument failures are the reason they do NOT have many top wind speeds for Ida, whereas I don't know of any that failed during Francine, I guess it's possible, but not in the numbers Ida had--comparing that to Francine was just absurd. I have a photo of the Port Fourchon wind gauge catching a gust of 170 mph--yes I know a gust.. but nobody anywhere saw anything like that from either Zeta or Francine.
Finally to all the folks going on and on and on, about how wind speeds drop dramatically once they hit land... the FL Recon Data came with reports that were updated at 4 and 5 CDT. I gleaned data from over 3,000 readings (it's not hard--try it, they're in neat columns) from Buoys, Ships, Manned stations (likely oil platforms) Drifting Buoys and others... and NOT ONE showed a sustained wind much over a Cat 1 hurricane. So the notion that there isn't enough surface data is bogus. These measurements were at SEA, not reduced by friction on land. The storm WAS NOT a Cat 2. Now all the folks who want to believe otherwise are welcome to quote this and have a field day. As my signature shows I've been through DOZENS of storms and I've seen it all--that storm was NO Cat 2 with all due respect to the NHC

[Woofde]

Would you speculate that it's landfall strength will be downgraded in the post-season analysis?

Doubtful, plenty of recon and radar observations to back it up. A storm only needs a small swath of said winds to classify it. It's very common for surface observations to be lacking when a storm barely makes said Category. This is especially the case when they hit a rural area.

If as you say, they have "plenty of recon data" to back it up??? I'd sure like to see it! I think Wxman57 was much closer to the truth in his assessment. #1 I always double check the recon... their recon data consisted of ONE reading of Flight level winds, and using an algorithm to spin it down to surface level. #2 I know of no radar that showed winds at surface level anywhere near Cat2. #3 Yes I do know they only need a small swath of winds to classify it as they used something like 2 microbits to elevate Zeta to a 3, a storm in which I never lost power; a storm in which I almost laughingly filmed the TV set as the EYE passed over, and showing the maximum gusts throughout the area and only a gust of barely 80 mph in ONE location showed up. They didn't want to show "sustained" winds because none were even hurricane force--anywhere that I noted. That said, Zeta was MUCH more windy than Francine, I recorded both, but Francine was much more RAIN than Zeta. It happens.
I went through Katrina, Gustav, Zeta and Ida, all majors, right here. I sat in my truck filming much of Ida, which is kind of crazy for a man my age, but power went out EARLY and it didn't come back for 2 weeks. #3 Some folks anxious to defend Francine's category actually threw out numbers on Ida that they can't back up. I have the report from Ida and yes quite a few don't show what we might have expected from a bona-fide Cat 4, however they fail to mention that the NHC and NOAA had made the point to indicate that MANY instrument failures are the reason they do NOT have many top wind speeds for Ida, whereas I don't know of any that failed during Francine, I guess it's possible, but not in the numbers Ida had--comparing that to Francine was just absurd. I have a photo of the Port Fourchon wind gauge catching a gust of 170 mph--yes I know a gust.. but nobody anywhere saw anything like that from either Zeta or Francine.
Finally to all the folks going on and on and on, about how wind speeds drop dramatically once they hit land... the FL Recon Data came with reports that were updated at 4 and 5 CDT. I gleaned data from over 3,000 readings (it's not hard--try it, they're in neat columns) from Buoys, Ships, Manned stations (likely oil platforms) Drifting Buoys and others... and NOT ONE showed a sustained wind much over a Cat 1 hurricane. So the notion that there isn't enough surface data is bogus. These measurements were at SEA, not reduced by friction on land. The storm WAS NOT a Cat 2. Now all the folks who want to believe otherwise are welcome to quote this and have a field day. As my signature shows I've been through DOZENS of storms and I've seen it all--that storm was NO Cat 2 with all due respect to the NHC

Well I respectfully disagree with you. It wasn't just recon, radar also showed the same winds aloft. Its standard procedure to use a conversion factor down to the surface. That happens with every single storm.

On your second point, I have also been through quite a few hurricanes now, including Ida the one you mention quite specifically. Yes Francine was nowhere near Ida's strength, wind speed and drag is not a linear relationship. Ida was a different beast. From my experiences with how NHC categorizes storms this was dead on, a borderline Cat 2. Just a tad more intense than Beryl, which was a top end Cat 1. It's very normal to only experience winds of a Category below the actual designation.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well I respectfully disagree with you. It wasn't just recon, radar also showed the same winds aloft. Its standard procedure to use a conversion factor down to the surface. That happens with every single storm.

On your second point, I have also been through quite a few hurricanes now, including Ida the one you mention quite specifically. Yes Francine was nowhere near Ida's strength, wind speed and drag is not a linear relationship. Ida was a different beast. From my experiences with how NHC categorizes storms this was dead on, a borderline Cat 2. Just a tad more intense than Beryl, which was a top end Cat 1. It's very normal to only experience winds of a Category below the actual designation.

#1 And I respectfully disagree with you. I also very specifically asked for those radar stats, and as for the "same winds ALOFT" Well I wasn't disputing what the winds aloft were. I was disputing what the algorithm that was NOT a measurement specifically came up with. Yes, I know all about conversion factors, and standard procedures... but those still aren't concrete surface readings and therein lay the rub. They don't have to do that for every single storm, as you say, because surface readings will, in the vast majority of cases, substantiate it. Even for ridiculous Zeta, they did have a satellite reading of two tiny dots over water which they interpreted as briefly 130 mph, possibly scatterometer, but not certain. I am still skeptical of that because it was SO mild once it came on land, albeit WIND wise, much stronger than Francine was.

#2 So you've been through quite a few hurricanes? Maybe you're a chaser, I dunno, but is the number over 33 for all tropical cyclones? Mine is actually 36 but the others were as a kid in an orphanage, but the nuns telling me about them is what piqued my interest and I've followed them ever since. The mention on wind speed and drag was unnecessary and we both know it, yes obviously Ida was a MUCH different "beast."

#3 "From my experiences with how NHC categorizes storms this was dead on, a borderline Cat 2." Well, did you expect anything less from the NHC, I mean, it WAS their conclusion, did you expect them to contradict it? From my experience getting "At Sea" data from hundreds of buoys right through the times that the NHC pushed it to 100 mph (I'm sure I don't have to tell you that 85 kt. isn't 100 mph--but it looks better on TV screens) I'm fairly sure that was for 2 updates lasting a 2 hour period, after which it dropped back to 90 mph. Now if you want to go with an algorithm, over 3,000 Buoys and other stations RIGHT NEAR THE COAST and at the time of the claims it was pushing 100 mph winds, then you go right ahead. I'll stick with the surface measurements and not an abstract conversion factor procedure--every time.

But hey... that's what the page is all about. It's the controversies involving these storms, and the discussions that they stimulate, hopefully others may get involved, though I have little doubt it will be one-sided against me. Still, maybe some will go on to become meteorologists. I bear no animus to anyone who wants to believe this was a CAT 2, nor do I have some compulsion to engage them in an endless debate nobody can win. I simply disagree, and I will always stand on my conclusion that it was and will remain a 1, and not much of a 1 at that. I DO respect your right to your conclusion that it was a 2. Those are the things that makes life interesting. Have a nice day, and while I can't see where you're from... I wish you luck and if you're a chaser you have my respect--just, please... stay safe!

[Ubuntwo]

Would you speculate that it's landfall strength will be downgraded in the post-season analysis?

Doubtful, plenty of recon and radar observations to back it up. A storm only needs a small swath of said winds to classify it. It's very common for surface observations to be lacking when a storm barely makes said Category. This is especially the case when they hit a rural area.

If as you say, they have "plenty of recon data" to back it up??? I'd sure like to see it! I think Wxman57 was much closer to the truth in his assessment. #1 I always double check the recon... their recon data consisted of ONE reading of Flight level winds, and using an algorithm to spin it down to surface level. #2 I know of no radar that showed winds at surface level anywhere near Cat2. #3 Yes I do know they only need a small swath of winds to classify it as they used something like 2 microbits to elevate Zeta to a 3, a storm in which I never lost power; a storm in which I almost laughingly filmed the TV set as the EYE passed over, and showing the maximum gusts throughout the area and only a gust of barely 80 mph in ONE location showed up. They didn't want to show "sustained" winds because none were even hurricane force--anywhere that I noted. That said, Zeta was MUCH more windy than Francine, I recorded both, but Francine was much more RAIN than Zeta. It happens.
I went through Katrina, Gustav, Zeta and Ida, all majors, right here. I sat in my truck filming much of Ida, which is kind of crazy for a man my age, but power went out EARLY and it didn't come back for 2 weeks. #3 Some folks anxious to defend Francine's category actually threw out numbers on Ida that they can't back up. I have the report from Ida and yes quite a few don't show what we might have expected from a bona-fide Cat 4, however they fail to mention that the NHC and NOAA had made the point to indicate that MANY instrument failures are the reason they do NOT have many top wind speeds for Ida, whereas I don't know of any that failed during Francine, I guess it's possible, but not in the numbers Ida had--comparing that to Francine was just absurd. I have a photo of the Port Fourchon wind gauge catching a gust of 170 mph--yes I know a gust.. but nobody anywhere saw anything like that from either Zeta or Francine.
Finally to all the folks going on and on and on, about how wind speeds drop dramatically once they hit land... the FL Recon Data came with reports that were updated at 4 and 5 CDT. I gleaned data from over 3,000 readings (it's not hard--try it, they're in neat columns) from Buoys, Ships, Manned stations (likely oil platforms) Drifting Buoys and others... and NOT ONE showed a sustained wind much over a Cat 1 hurricane. So the notion that there isn't enough surface data is bogus. These measurements were at SEA, not reduced by friction on land. The storm WAS NOT a Cat 2. Now all the folks who want to believe otherwise are welcome to quote this and have a field day. me: As my signature shows I've been through DOZENS of storms and I've seen it all--that storm was NO Cat 2 with all due respect to the NHC

You are in Metaire, which experienced only tropical storm conditions and gusts on the border between TS and Cat 1. So your account makes sense. It was not a single reading on recon. Four separate passes measured flight level winds supporting an upgrade to category 2, even if you use a more conservative reduction factor than the standard 90%. The highest offshore gust was 105 mph at a below-standard anemometer height of 4 meters. The 170mph Port Fourchon observation in Ida was highly elevated. Not saying Ida was overestimated by the NHC or anything, just making a statement about the expected obs vs. peak MSW recorded on recon, it happens in almost every storm. 3,000 obs is very impressive but not a single one was positioned in the eastern eyewall after the upgrade to category two and before or at landfall.

[Ubuntwo]

Pardon the UX gore, but here I highlight the swath of cat-2 reduced winds on recon & the closest observation. There were no observations in the swath of reduced cat-2 winds from recon. 73.8kt was the highest 10m observation, occurring in the north/northeast eyewall basically where the storm made landfall. What difference would we expect between the north eyewall and eastern eyewall?



Peak radar velocities: