ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Area of 5500 CAPE east of the core.
Helicity increasing now,
300mb winds 30kt over this area.
As a result STP is at 3.
So we may have the tornado outbreak after all.
Will be watching this very closely. Will post updates as they develop.

[Kazmit]

Sheer increasing. No improvement on satellite. Recon is finding rising pressures. NHC's predicted strengthening may not happen.

The predicted strengthening has already happened. An extra 5 kts to reach cat 2 isn't very significant.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

It does look like Francine is at most holding steady if not weakening slightly. Pressure has remained generally unchanged (and maybe risen a little bit), and any winds that support 80 kt (if any) are rather limited with unimpressive SFMR. I wouldn't rule out a slight bump at the last minute to Cat 2, however, and impacts will be the same regardless: tornados will be the biggest story.

Remember that Francine has a rather impressive intensification phase last night when shear looked like this. This is why strong shear isn't automatically a death sentence.

https://i.postimg.cc/cCGnKRKL/image.png

Any idea why the intense shear isn't hurting Francine? Does it have something to do with the orientation of it?

[Sciencerocks]

[MGC]

Good to see the pressure rise, hope it falls apart soon. 60 mile wide eye according to recon....MGC

[crimi481]

Is the center moving more east than north?

[MississippiWx]

The center is tightening up on radar as a hot tower can be seen rotating around on the satellite imagery. Could be one more attempt at strengthening if it can persist.

[Teban54]

The center is tightening up on radar as a hot tower can be seen rotating around on the satellite imagery. Could be one more attempt at strengthening if it can persist.

Agreed, and also recon is finding FL winds near 90 kts again. Of course this happened right after I commented on how she's at most holding steady lol.

[MississippiWx]

The center is tightening up on radar as a hot tower can be seen rotating around on the satellite imagery. Could be one more attempt at strengthening if it can persist.

Agreed, and also recon is finding FL winds near 90 kts again. Of course this happened right after I commented on how she's at most holding steady lol.

The hurricane models show her strengthening until landfall, so I guess it's possible.

[MarioProtVI]

The center is tightening up on radar as a hot tower can be seen rotating around on the satellite imagery. Could be one more attempt at strengthening if it can persist.

Agreed, and also recon is finding FL winds near 90 kts again. Of course this happened right after I commented on how she's at most holding steady lol.

750 mb height though which is still ~79 kt converted so still holding steady.

[ColdMiser123]

I'd want to see the hurricane hunters sampling the eastern semicircle much more, especially as Francine continues to close in on landfall. Hurricane models show jet-enhanced winds in this area just before landfall. That sampling will give us a better idea as to what the max winds actually are.

As is, hurricane hunters just found flight level wind of 91 kt in the SE quadrant, which would support an intensity right on the border of Cat 1/Cat 2.

[Cunxi Huang]

FL 91 kt in the SE quad... Radar's getting better as well. I would say we might see a Cat.2 upgrade the next public advisory.

[GCANE]

Last eye drop showing a saturated core. She is not giving up

[Pipelines182]

It does look like Francine is at most holding steady if not weakening slightly. Pressure has remained generally unchanged (and maybe risen a little bit), and any winds that support 80 kt (if any) are rather limited with unimpressive SFMR. I wouldn't rule out a slight bump at the last minute to Cat 2, however, and impacts will be the same regardless: tornados will be the biggest story.

Remember that Francine has a rather impressive intensification phase last night when shear looked like this. This is why strong shear isn't automatically a death sentence.

https://i.postimg.cc/cCGnKRKL/image.png

Any idea why the intense shear isn't hurting Francine? Does it have something to do with the orientation of it?

Maybe someone with more knowledge than me can chime in but from what I've seen when a storm is moving in the same direction as the shear vector, the impacts are far less destructive for a given shear value. Whenever you see a storm get quickly completely sheared off, like a candle getting blown out, is when the movement is near opposite of the shear vector.

[Tailgater33]

104 Flight level winds outbound to southeast of last VDM?

[GCANE]

Looks like some big time eyewall building happening

[GCANE]

So, it seems like the unexpected strengthening is correlating with the undisclosed factor I mentioned earlier.
This likely due to the impact of a solar stream and subsequent heating of the ionosphere.
Note the sudden jump in density.
https://solarham.com/solarwind.htm

Ionospheric heating is seen here
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

[Hurricane2022]

What the hell
?⁹⁷⁶⁴

[GCANE]

What the helllllll
?⁹⁷⁶⁴
https://imageshack.com/i/pmU0CmGfp

Large geomagnetic storm underway

[GCANE]

She is really spinning now on IR