ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Bamagirl2408]

Always a lurker, never a poster. TWC has probably said 10 times in last hour that the official track is W of New Orleans but keep mentioning over and over it could go right over Greater New Orleans and keep showing their high res model. Just thought it was of interest. Should we expect possibly one small final track change to include them?

[weeniepatrol]

[Hurricane2022]

Extrap 974.6
Looks like FranCine is finally RI'ing

[CrazyC83]

Always a lurker, never a poster. TWC has probably said 10 times in last hour that the official track is W of New Orleans but keep mentioning over and over it could go right over Greater New Orleans and keep showing their high res model. Just thought it was of interest. Should we expect possibly one small final track change to include them?

Changes to the track are still possible and a track directly over NOLA is not impossible.

[REDHurricane]

Here's a good look at Francine as she works to mix out the mid-level dry air to the west and continue intensifying:

[Steve]

Bedtime. I’m hoping tomorrow afternoon is more fun than destructive. Francine has maybe 6 hours left to bottom out in pressure. Perhaps mid-low 970s before maybe coming back up a couple millibars?

[Hurricane2022]

Bedtime. I’m hoping tomorrow afternoon is more fun than destructive. Francine has maybe 6 hours left to bottom out in pressure. Perhaps mid-low 970s before maybe coming back up a couple millibars?

In fact Francine is likely already at mid-low 970s. Expect this to peak at ~960 mbar today afternoon before shear starts to affect it.

[Craters]

Here's a good look at Francine as she works to mix out the mid-level dry air to the west and continue intensifying:

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbGZkcGx4dzE3eDBybDkyaGszb3pwMWFvMGwzbGN6ejY2ZmlnY3ViYyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/nKqRsyDjuxImJy43WO/giphy.gif

If nothing else, that is showing one huge anticyclone...

[Sciencerocks]

[weeniepatrol]

[REDHurricane]

Here's our -90ºC cloud tops making their first appearance I believe:

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 94.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

[Teban54]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 94.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

Not only has Francine already achieved the forecast intensity for 12z six hours in advance, but she's also knocking on the door of Cat 2 with just 5 kts to go.

Eye showing up on IR:

[chaser1]

I was hoping it would move east to avoid my family in Houston. Turns out I hoped too hard because now it's so far east it's gonna hit me

Will this be your first? If so, make sure you're not in a flooding prone area and that you're in a solid safe structure

[MarioProtVI]

Next recon should be very interesting. Most likely will find a C2 but can’t rule it some BS and it’s stronger then that.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not doubting Francine's intensity at all, but she's kind of an ugly-looking system...

[3090]

Not doubting Francine's intensity at all, but she's kind of an ugly-looking system...

Ugly like a witch and potent enough to beat someone’s butt!

[GCANE]

Looks like 4500 CAPE in the core. Hard to read the current graphics.
40kt jet over head.
Its a battle between shear and strong infeed.
Last eyedrop from recon at 4:42Z showed a relatively dry core.
New eyedrop is coming up in a few minutes.

[GCANE]

Large, widespread helicity at the core.
Looks very likely this will be a large tornado outbreak event.

[Hurricane2022]

Extrap 969.2 so far