ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Janie2006]

The thing that concerns me most about this situation here in coastal Alabama is the potential for tornadic activity. All of the elements will be present.

[chaser1]

I'm fairly confident that the centralized CB bursting pattern along with the bump up of flight level winds will have NHC upgade Francine to a hurricane at 11:00pm (if not a 9:00pm special advisory). I still believe that we'll see Francine reach Cat 2. It's NNE motion along with the continuation of the heat that it's pumping out at the upper level should be adequate to fend off the undercutting dry layer shear that was visibly approaching from its west. I think she'll be playing peek-aboo by morning.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a friendly reminder that the NHC projects this to have roughly 24 more hours over the Gulf before making landfall.

[SohCahToa]

Just a friendly reminder that the NHC projects this to have roughly 24 more hours over the Gulf before making landfall.

Lots of news stations in the area have been saying it’s no longer expected to be a Cat 2. Which, technically is true. NHC only has it getting to 90th, but that seems like such an unnecessary thing to report when preparations are taking place.

[NDG]

NOAA's Recon Dropsone measured 983mb in the center with 11 knots of winds so pressure is probably more like 981-982mb. That's still a nice drop since the last mission's VDM of 987 mb 5 hours prior.
So about a mb an hour, that's steady strengthening.

[Hurricane Mike]

That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it is staying on the east side of forecast guidance. Will Florida see some kind of watch?

[Nimbus]

Wind shear starting to pancake the NW quadrant.

You can see it here but the track is further east so the models may need some tweeks with the current RI blowing outflow..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[romeoblade]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/102330.shtml

NHC has it upgraded to category 1 for the 7:00PM update.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[WeatherBoy2000]

It's now hurricane Francine.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just a friendly reminder that the NHC projects this to have roughly 24 more hours over the Gulf before making landfall.

Lots of news stations in the area have been saying it’s no longer expected to be a Cat 2. Which, technically is true. NHC only has it getting to 90th, but that seems like such an unnecessary thing to report when preparations are taking place.

exactly! 90 mph will still be a decent cat 1 hurricane, so people should still prepare just as before.

[Teban54]

I think there’s a good chance Francine doesn’t even become a hurricane before landfall the way it’s looking now. Just my unprofessional opinion.

This was from less than 2 hours ago. Even milk doesn't age this badly.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think there’s a good chance Francine doesn’t even become a hurricane before landfall the way it’s looking now. Just my unprofessional opinion.

This was from less than 2 hours ago. Even milk doesn't age this badly.

Raw salad placed on a countertop in a humid room doesn't age like this either. Anyways, but yes, we officially have the 4th hurricane of this season.

[Nimbus]

Just a friendly reminder that the NHC projects this to have roughly 24 more hours over the Gulf before making landfall.

Lots of news stations in the area have been saying it’s no longer expected to be a Cat 2. Which, technically is true. NHC only has it getting to 90th, but that seems like such an unnecessary thing to report when preparations are taking place.

exactly! 90 mph will still be a decent cat 1 hurricane, so people should still prepare just as before.

Its only 75 miles between Morgan city and Grande Isle.

[cycloneye]

[jasons2k]

The dew point at my place rose from 60 degrees up to 75 from 6am to noon today. 15 degrees over 6 hours.

[Nimbus]

Recon found a pretty stationary 979.3 mb reading since the last pass so probably no more than 1 mb per hour drop.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1833658532916334924

[ROCK]

90mph - 100 seems about right just be looking at the presentation and the 24hrs left over water. JMO…