ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

I think there’s a good chance Francine doesn’t even become a hurricane before landfall the way it’s looking now. Just my unprofessional opinion.

Current radar velocities imply that Francine is already a hurricane. Guess we'll see soon

[Steve]

As I feared yet another track shift to the east. Looks like Francine will pass between New Orleans and Baton Rouge? Still some dry air entraining into the circulation which should abate as the cyclone moves away from the west GOM coast. Francine will be moving with the UL winds so I doubt shear will be that impactful......MGC

I had us prepped yesterday, just sitting back and waiting on the action here on the Northshore. Hopefully it stays calm. I don’t think I can handle another clean up like Oda, and we made out well for Ida, all things considered.

Hope y’all make out okay. So much of the north shore has pine trees until you get out of that belt. And some of them snap. Didn’t have much to do after yesterday. When im in New Orleans last few years it’s on the 4th floor of a 100 year old building. So the only things we had to do was park my car downtown in the garage, have one of my kids pick me up, bring the pc home and stock up on provisions - food and party. Office building is closed tomorrow so I’ll just be hanging around. If power ain’t back on by Thursday I’ll go to my house in Pensacola for the weekend, watch football and be in the AC. I had to bail for Ida so I didn’t get to ride that one out. Rain has picked up here in the city, and it’s a little breezy - like 10-12 out the east.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think there’s a good chance Francine doesn’t even become a hurricane before landfall the way it’s looking now. Just my unprofessional opinion.

I think it will make a run, but probably just be a cat 1 at landfall. The longer it takes to get going the more it reduces the chance for it to get stronger. Usually we are talking about intensification up until landfall, but with this storm we know that the it will start to weaken due to strong shear and dry air, so yea I'm thinking a cat 1 looking more likely at this point. Now on the other hand if it continues to struggle tonight as well, then you well well could be right. (unless of course it already is a hurricane and we just don't know it yet).

[Steve]

New round of -80 storms are firing off either northeast of or near the center. They are roughly 25.8N 95W. Yeah that’s gotta be close to the center.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[NDG]

Francine says what dry air are some talking about?
A sign that convection will keep going is how they are firing up ahead of its path. IMO.

[Category5Kaiju]

Francine says what dry air are some talking about?
A sign that convection will keep going is how they are firing up ahead of its path. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/pd2439l.gif

Looks like Francine's on its way to become a hurricane. The next thing to watch for are hot towers, of course.

[TomballEd]

I think there’s a good chance Francine doesn’t even become a hurricane before landfall the way it’s looking now. Just my unprofessional opinion.

Hurricane models support the NHC forecast, in fact they are above NHC forecast until the weakening starts and still landfall as hurricanes. The flow above 300 mb level is pretty stout and weakens only slightly over LCH by landfall tomorrow afternoon or evening. 18Z LCH sounding, NHC has to balance the pure science with public safety, and the path of least regret is to go a bit over the mean of the intensity models.

[TomballEd]

New round of -80 storms are firing off either northeast of or near the center. They are roughly 25.8N 95W. Yeah that’s gotta be close to the center.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

One little spot closer to -90. Going home where Giphy isn't blocked.

[SohCahToa]

As I feared yet another track shift to the east. Looks like Francine will pass between New Orleans and Baton Rouge? Still some dry air entraining into the circulation which should abate as the cyclone moves away from the west GOM coast. Francine will be moving with the UL winds so I doubt shear will be that impactful......MGC

I had us prepped yesterday, just sitting back and waiting on the action here on the Northshore. Hopefully it stays calm. I don’t think I can handle another clean up like Oda, and we made out well for Ida, all things considered.

Hope y’all make out okay. So much of the north shore has pine trees until you get out of that belt. And some of them snap. Didn’t have much to do after yesterday. When im in New Orleans last few years it’s on the 4th floor of a 100 year old building. So the only things we had to do was park my car downtown in the garage, have one of my kids pick me up, bring the pc home and stock up on provisions - food and party. Office building is closed tomorrow so I’ll just be hanging around. If power ain’t back on by Thursday I’ll go to my house in Pensacola for the weekend, watch football and be in the AC. I had to bail for Ida so I didn’t get to ride that one out. Rain has picked up here in the city, and it’s a little breezy - like 10-12 out the east.

I think we will do ok. Hope yall do as well. I feel like our block is the only one not littered with Pine. It gets pretty heavy with pine a few blocks away at the back of the neighborhood down Rapatel. Watched a bunch of them snap from my back porch on Ida. Crazy things can happen, but I’m hoping for a relaxing day off before I have to get out and do clean up.

Hoping everyone else fares well and we all just get a little break here tomorrow.

[MississippiWx]

Francine says what dry air are some talking about?
A sign that convection will keep going is how they are firing up ahead of its path. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/pd2439l.gif

Looks like shrimp is for dinner.

[Ubuntwo]

71kt flight level in the northeast quadrant just about supports a hurricane.

[Nimbus]

[Stormlover70]

Looks horrible on radar. Guess thats why we don't use radar with tropics.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like the NHC will get back-to-back passes through the center of Francine before the next update. Miss Piggy recently reported 81.7mph flight level winds.

[tropicwatch]

Looks horrible on radar. Guess thats why we don't use radar with tropics.

Radar is stretching it to get the center of circulation. Quite aways from radar stations currently.

[ScottNAtlanta]

979.1 was the lowest extrp.pressure for the center pass

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks horrible on radar. Guess thats why we don't use radar with tropics.

Looks better than it did before with the return of an actual eye feature and increasing velocities. Plus, it’s nearly out of radar range. Always use radar for tropical cyclones when it’s available. You miss a lot of data under the hood if you don’t.

[NDG]

I was correct of pressure of at least low 980s mb when the recons arrived this evening.

URNT15 KWBC 102301
NOAA3 1006A FRANCINE HDOB 17 20240910
225130 2603N 09425W 7508 02425 9915 +144 +159 150060 062 /// /// 05
225200 2602N 09427W 7503 02420 9902 +148 +162 158065 071 /// /// 05
225230 2601N 09429W 7507 02410 9891 +151 +167 166065 071 /// /// 05
225300 2600N 09430W 7514 02403 9889 +152 +161 161051 059 /// /// 05
225330 2559N 09432W 7512 02399 9885 +151 +155 159049 050 /// /// 05
225400 2558N 09434W 7515 02391 9873 +159 +154 159046 049 /// /// 03
225430 2557N 09436W 7513 02386 9857 +166 +168 159048 052 /// /// 05
225500 2556N 09437W 7512 02378 9850 +163 +170 159045 049 /// /// 05
225530 2555N 09439W 7511 02376 9842 +165 +158 157046 046 /// /// 03
225600 2553N 09441W 7517 02360 9833 +169 +168 162042 046 /// /// 05
225630 2552N 09443W 7502 02364 9822 +168 +176 162041 046 /// /// 05
225700 2551N 09444W 7511 02357 9814 +175 +160 151031 037 /// /// 03
225730 2550N 09446W 7510 02356 9813 +175 +152 145017 024 /// /// 03
225800 2549N 09448W 7513 02349 9817 +165 +155 148010 012 /// /// 03
225830 2548N 09450W 7511 02347 9815 +164 +165 196004 010 /// /// 05
225900 2547N 09452W 7511 02349 9801 +182 +155 333011 014 /// /// 03
225930 2546N 09454W 7509 02353 9791 +197 +134 341018 020 /// /// 03
230000 2545N 09456W 7513 02353 9798 +198 +130 331021 022 /// /// 03
230030 2544N 09458W 7510 02361 9796 +201 +154 326023 025 /// /// 03
230100 2543N 09500W 7495 02381 9795 +206 +153 332029 030 /// /// 03

[Nederlander]

Wind shear starting to pancake the NW quadrant.

[NDG]

76 knots flight level winds and pressure support upgrade to hurricane.

URNT15 KNHC 102311
AF301 1106A FRANCINE HDOB 14 20240910
230300 2637N 09401W 6969 03122 0034 +079 //// 153054 055 033 013 01
230330 2636N 09403W 6962 03129 0033 +080 //// 151054 055 034 014 01
230400 2634N 09404W 6970 03117 0027 +082 +079 150055 056 036 012 00
230430 2633N 09405W 6967 03118 0035 +075 //// 148053 055 036 011 01
230500 2632N 09406W 6966 03118 0029 +077 //// 148052 054 036 010 01
230530 2631N 09408W 6964 03120 0022 +082 //// 145056 057 037 009 01
230600 2630N 09409W 6966 03117 0013 +089 +082 142057 057 036 007 00
230630 2629N 09410W 6969 03109 0010 +088 +080 141059 060 035 003 00
230700 2627N 09412W 6969 03107 0011 +084 +082 138060 060 036 004 00
230730 2626N 09413W 6968 03106 0018 +075 //// 137063 065 037 005 01
230800 2625N 09414W 6967 03102 0003 +083 +077 134065 065 039 008 00
230830 2624N 09416W 6968 03097 //// +060 //// 133066 066 040 012 01
230900 2623N 09417W 6965 03095 //// +064 //// 128061 065 040 022 01
230930 2621N 09418W 6969 03085 //// +064 //// 127061 062 046 022 01
231000 2620N 09420W 6970 03079 //// +066 //// 134066 069 047 026 01
231030 2619N 09421W 6949 03100 //// +074 //// 154072 076 050 025 01
231100 2618N 09422W 6972 03072 //// +081 //// 156066 072 051 024 01
231130 2617N 09424W 6972 03070 //// +084 //// 152061 070 054 029 01
231200 2615N 09425W 6975 03058 //// +074 //// 150065 069 050 034 01
231230 2614N 09426W 6976 03063 //// +072 //// 137058 066 058 029 01