ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

Glad to see my forecast of dry air not letting up verified, thus keeping Francine weaker than expected and that shear will now be added to the list of things against the storm. Very good news for Louisiana!

Which satellite product that you are using actually shows dry air being pulled into the system? You can't see water vapor on the visible.

[Steve]

Glad to see my forecast of dry air not letting up verified, thus keeping Francine weaker than expected and that shear will now be added to the list of things against the storm. Very good news for Louisiana!

Which satellite product that you are using actually shows dry air being pulled into the system? You can't see water vapor on the visible.

NHC alludes to it in the 4pm discussion.

“The convection associated with Francine has not changed much in
organization during the past six hours. Radar data from the
WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville shows good curved banding
around the center, but the convection is having trouble persisting,
possibly due to continued dry air entrainment…”

[NDG]

Convection is re-firing nicely right by the LLC.
My guess is that the next recon this evening will find pressure down to the 980s mb and winds closer if not hurricane force winds.

[cajungal]

Convection is re-firing nicely right by the LLC.
My guess is that the next recon this evening will find pressure down to the 980s mb and winds closer if not hurricane force winds.

https://i.imgur.com/DsutJGB.gif

Looks like she is finally getting her act together. Best she ever looked

[al78]

If the shear ramps up as the storm is making landfall, does that increase the likelihood of tornadoes?

[Hammy]

Convection is re-firing nicely right by the LLC.
My guess is that the next recon this evening will find pressure down to the 980s mb and winds closer if not hurricane force winds.

https://i.imgur.com/DsutJGB.gif

Obviously this is a good thing given it's limiting the land impacts but I'm still curious what the background reason is for the Gulf systems so far, having winds that are lagging behind what you would expect for the pressure

[WeatherBoy2000]

Looks like a storm that's just about to get going to me with the blob of convection on the northwest side trying to wrap around the center, once (if) it can do that then Francine will probably start intensifying much more rapidly.

[Kingarabian]

Looks really good. But it also did yesterday at the same time. Let's see if the night is kinder to it this time around.

[Kingarabian]

Looks really healthy. But it also did yesterday at the same time. Let's see if the night is kinder to it this time around.

[wxman57]

Shear is dropping ahead of it, but still very high as it gets closer to landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/QbX5qzd.gif

Note that the graphic is a shear tendency plot. Shear could be 100 kts but it drops to 70 kts and you'd see -30 contours. Yeah, it would be dropping but still high. They produce an actual shear chart, too.

[wxman57]

Looks really healthy. But it also did yesterday at the same time. Let's see if the night is kinder to it this time around.

I think it looked a lot better this time yesterday.

[InfernoFlameCat]

There is an eye like feature on radar. That was quick.

[xironman]

Glad to see my forecast of dry air not letting up verified, thus keeping Francine weaker than expected and that shear will now be added to the list of things against the storm. Very good news for Louisiana!

Which satellite product that you are using actually shows dry air being pulled into the system? You can't see water vapor on the visible.

NHC alludes to it in the 4pm discussion.

“The convection associated with Francine has not changed much in
organization during the past six hours. Radar data from the
WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville shows good curved banding
around the center, but the convection is having trouble persisting,
possibly due to continued dry air entrainment…”

Possibly does not sound very definitive.

[MGC]

As I feared yet another track shift to the east. Looks like Francine will pass between New Orleans and Baton Rouge? Still some dry air entraining into the circulation which should abate as the cyclone moves away from the west GOM coast. Francine will be moving with the UL winds so I doubt shear will be that impactful......MGC

[Hurricane Mike]

I still wouldn't be surprised if Francine slides further east than the official landfall track.

[Steve]

If the shear ramps up as the storm is making landfall, does that increase the likelihood of tornadoes?

GCANE was talking about that a few pages back. Not gonna pretend to be an expert like all you pros but I think it’s got to do with direction of the shear.

[Nimbus]

As I feared yet another track shift to the east. Looks like Francine will pass between New Orleans and Baton Rouge? Still some dry air entraining into the circulation which should abate as the cyclone moves away from the west GOM coast. Francine will be moving with the UL winds so I doubt shear will be that impactful......MGC

The SW quadrant of the low level circulation was visible just a few hours ago but sadly its getting close to RI time, if not tonight then early tomorrow. They have the track narrowed down but not enough to rule out NOLA. High cirrus clouds are expanding more symmetrically, so not sure where the next frontal shear source is going to align.

[SohCahToa]

As I feared yet another track shift to the east. Looks like Francine will pass between New Orleans and Baton Rouge? Still some dry air entraining into the circulation which should abate as the cyclone moves away from the west GOM coast. Francine will be moving with the UL winds so I doubt shear will be that impactful......MGC

I had us prepped yesterday, just sitting back and waiting on the action here on the Northshore. Hopefully it stays calm. I don’t think I can handle another clean up like Oda, and we made out well for Ida, all things considered.

[Hurricane Mike]

5pm Video on Francine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PGh4cSrZeE

[otowntiger]

I think there’s a good chance Francine doesn’t even become a hurricane before landfall the way it’s looking now. Just my unprofessional opinion.