ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Boom. There's a blowup. Look for this to maybe fizzle out before heavier consolidation later this evening into tomorrow. Not sure how much lower the pressure can actually get given the circumstances, but you'd think mid 970's would be the lowest they could probably get to.

Check the high-res visible on Levi's page. Looks like that blow-up is east of the center.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis

[Frank P]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Boom. There's a blowup. Look for this to maybe fizzle out before heavier consolidation later this evening into tomorrow. Not sure how much lower the pressure can actually get given the circumstances, but you'd think mid 970's would be the lowest they could probably get to.

Also looks like the convection off to the NE might be cooling a tad.

[ConvergenceZone]

Behaving very much like a system trying to deepen but fighting dry air intrusion.

Looks like increasing westerly shear, too.

I remember yesterday afternoon the NHC was forecasting this to be a hurricane last night. Wow, what a difference 24 hours makes.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Boom. There's a blowup. Look for this to maybe fizzle out before heavier consolidation later this evening into tomorrow. Not sure how much lower the pressure can actually get given the circumstances, but you'd think mid 970's would be the lowest they could probably get to.

Check the high-res visible on Levi's page. Looks like that blow-up is east of the center.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis

I think it is as well (and north). But also it's probably going to drag it along that way (toward the NE/NNE). IR seems to indicate a dry slot to the SW so that might or might not be the center. I didn't plot the blowup because I'm walking out the door from work for the next couple of days. I'll be around as long as we have power.

[Ubuntwo]

Behaving very much like a system trying to deepen but fighting dry air intrusion.

Looks like increasing westerly shear, too.

I remember yesterday afternoon the NHC was forecasting this to be a hurricane last night. Wow, what a difference 24 hours makes.

To be fair, the model expectation was mostly halted intensification until tonight and tomorrow morning. That has been the cane model thinking for a couple days now.

[NDG]

Unlike this time yesterday convection keeps re-firing near the LLC, look ahead of it as convection is also re-firing, there's a lot more instability surrounding the immediate core than this time yesterday. We should start seeing another drop in pressure this evening, IMO.

[wxman57]

Unlike this time yesterday convection keeps re-firing near the LLC, look ahead of it as convection is also re-firing, there's a lot more instability surrounding the immediate core than this time yesterday. We should start seeing another drop in pressure this evening, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/GS095hR.gif

Just a brief let-up in the shear would result in it becoming a hurricane. Come on, shear!

[Nimbus]

Unlike this time yesterday convection keeps re-firing near the LLC, look ahead of it as convection is also re-firing, there's a lot more instability surrounding the immediate core than this time yesterday. We should start seeing another drop in pressure this evening, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/GS095hR.gif

Just a brief let-up in the shear would result in it becoming a hurricane. Come on, shear!

If this were just a few miles closer to the desert like the GFS was depicting early on we would have never seen this intensification.

[NDG]

Considering that Francine is now trekking along to the NE, we have started getting our tropical cyclone preps done. I think the NHC is too far west. I expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5pm......MGC

I think that 30-40 mph onshore flow will put water over 90 between Gulfport and Biloxi tomorrow. Lots of rain, too, and possible tornadoes. You live pretty close to Josh Morgerman's house in Bay St. Louis.

I live in Pass Christian on the south side of the railroad tracks. We are on a high ground and didn't flood with Katrina. Tornadoes are my major concern for Francine. We are about 7 miles from Bay St Louis, closer to Long Beach.

I miss that area, the MS Gulf Coast was part of my sales territory when I lived in Nola before Katrina, so beautiful. Our clients we represented called me the mayor of Biloxi, all the Casinos were my customers. Once a week every week I took that drive to the gulf coast and back to Nola. Would take Hwy 90 from Gulfport of Biloxi all the way back to Bay St Louis to enjoy the view and sea breeze.
I was in Casino Magic in Bay St Louis for an event the Friday night before Katrina hit.
It took me a long time to drive that stretch after Katrina, didn't want to have a heart break. Hopefully it will be a long time before you guys get another Camille or Katrina.

[NDG]

Unlike this time yesterday convection keeps re-firing near the LLC, look ahead of it as convection is also re-firing, there's a lot more instability surrounding the immediate core than this time yesterday. We should start seeing another drop in pressure this evening, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/GS095hR.gif

Just a brief let-up in the shear would result in it becoming a hurricane. Come on, shear!

I don't see that much shear affecting it yet. 18z SHIPS shows 5 knots of shear over it. Next few hours is a different story.

[xironman]

Unlike this time yesterday convection keeps re-firing near the LLC, look ahead of it as convection is also re-firing, there's a lot more instability surrounding the immediate core than this time yesterday. We should start seeing another drop in pressure this evening, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/GS095hR.gif

Just a brief let-up in the shear would result in it becoming a hurricane. Come on, shear!

It is turning into the direction of the upper level winds, so relative shear might not be that big

[wxman57]

Unlike this time yesterday convection keeps re-firing near the LLC, look ahead of it as convection is also re-firing, there's a lot more instability surrounding the immediate core than this time yesterday. We should start seeing another drop in pressure this evening, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/GS095hR.gif

Just a brief let-up in the shear would result in it becoming a hurricane. Come on, shear!

It is turning into the direction of the upper level winds, so relative shear might not be that big

It would have to move a lot faster.

[NDG]

Shear is dropping ahead of it, but still very high as it gets closer to landfall.

[Steve]

Rain is picking up a little here maybe to moderate (almost yellows on the radar). Been pretty non-stop but it was lighter earlier today. I doubt we’ve picked up but about .5-.75” so far but you already know more is coming.

[NDG]

Mid & UL winds ahead of its track are not that bad, you substract its forecasted movement near this area near 10 knots and you end with net shear near 20 knots nothing close to the forecasted 30-40 knots.

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

https://i.imgur.com/eDNAEQt.gif

Convection is exploding to the NE where the storm is going, a bit of the fist of strengthening

[WiscoWx02]

Glad to see my forecast of dry air not letting up verified, thus keeping Francine weaker than expected and that shear will now be added to the list of things against the storm. Very good news for Louisiana!

[Teban54]

Glad to see my forecast of dry air not letting up verified, thus keeping Francine weaker than expected and that shear will now be added to the list of things against the storm. Very good news for Louisiana!

The day before "dry air" got thrown into the discussion, you were betting on mid-level shear as the primary reason why you were so certain Francine would underperform, even though there were already plenty of explanations about how the shear was expected to be divergent (especially once Francine starts moving more rapidly) and actually aid in providing outflow.

I have to think this is a broken clock situation. Not to mention we don't know whether Francine will underperform yet, since the current situation is well anticipated by hurricane models and they still show a Cat 2-3 peak.

[Woofde]

Glad to see my forecast of dry air not letting up verified, thus keeping Francine weaker than expected and that shear will now be added to the list of things against the storm. Very good news for Louisiana!

We shall see. Dry air is present, but I'm not sold on it killing the storm yet. It's just intensifying a slower pace at the moment. GFS didn't get this to 987mb till 8pm, we were already at that during the last recon pass.