ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Rotating hot towers...just what you see as things are taking off.

[tolakram]

From CIMSS: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[tolakram]

Levi from yesterday, good discussion of shear, dry air, and how intensity is a bit tricky depending on exactly where it runs into bad conditions.



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kbbv3k5VmrU

[MGC]

Francine should start picking up speed to the NE soon. The shortwave is moving in from the west and will pickup the cyclone. Might go a bit further east than current forecast. Baton Rouge and New Orleans gonna get some wind.....MGC

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Janie2006]

Hello Janie. So nice to see you back. Good luck over there.

Light rain has been steady here since I woke up in the 4am hour. Long way to go get to late tomorrow night and Thursday when maybe things are closer to normal. Unfortunately some people will lose their homes and lives. So take care and heed all local warnings. Heading to work but I said **** some **** and wore jeans.

Hello Steve, it’s good to be back. I’ve been working a lot and it’s certain to get crazier should Francine take a more easterly approach.

The rain is just south of me, and it’s raining from Dauphin Island all the way over to Bay St. Louis and Slidell….courtesy of that old frontal boundary from last Saturday moving north over the coastline.

It’s odd. 20 miles west of me a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect and nothing here, not even flood advisories simply because it’s been so dry the past few weeks. But I’ve lived through far too many of these storms to let my guard down and I know that intensity and landfall forecasts can change drastically in a matter of hours.

[kevin]

Second recon pass, 990.9 mbar extrapolated with 6 kt FL winds. SFMR is working and peaked at 58 kt.

[GCANE]

Tail end of the trof showing a 40kt jet at 300mb

[GCANE]

500mb showing a weak low at the west end of the TX/MX border.
May put a small western kink in the forecast track.

[GCANE]

5500 CAPE now in the mid GoM

[ColdMiser123]

Seems on track to intensify today. Dry air is mixing out of the core, & the persistent area of convection to the northeast is weakening.

Drop supports 987 mb.

[xironman]

In the steering layer wind analysis you can really see the eastward bias for a stronger storm

weak



strong

[wxman57]

Second recon pass, 990.9 mbar extrapolated with 6 kt FL winds. SFMR is working and peaked at 58 kt.

A 58kt SFMR that's 20 kts above FL wind is suspicious, to me. It does look like its trying to reorganize. Track will be east of Vermilion Bay. NHC won't shift that far at 10am, but they'll be shifting it east.

[TomballEd]

Second recon pass, 990.9 mbar extrapolated with 6 kt FL winds. SFMR is working and peaked at 58 kt.

A 58kt SFMR that's 20 kts above FL wind is suspicious, to me. It does look like its trying to reorganize. Track will be east of Vermilion Bay. NHC won't shift that far at 10am, but they'll be shifting it east.

I think much of New Iberia, away from the immediate coast, would be ok surge wise, but, of course, hurricane force winds and associated damage.

I've taken boats and caught helicopters in Morgan City and Patterson, there isn't a lot of relief, old Highway 90 (before they elevated it) would flood just from spring snow melt in the Mississippi River basin, heavy rain and elevated salt water levels would be bad. Terrebonne Parish is also low-lying, there are bridges in Houma.

[Nimbus]

Flight level pressure was reported a low of 615 mb vs 715 mb for the earlier recon flying lower but have to wait for the vortex message.

[kevin]

AF302 dropsonde (988 mb, 3 kt) also supports the 987 - 988 mbar intensity found by the NOAA2 dropsonde.

[NDG]

I should had listened last night to wxman57 pointing to the dry air along the MX coast to the west and SW of Francine, it was definitely keep it in check during the night.
But as soon as it started moving away from the Mexican coast it started maintaining convection.
Recon shows that it kept a nice tight core during the night, so now that deep convection is returning all around its LLC it should start gaining strength at a steady pace over the next 30 hours.

[NDG]

Second recon pass, 990.9 mbar extrapolated with 6 kt FL winds. SFMR is working and peaked at 58 kt.

A 58kt SFMR that's 20 kts above FL wind is suspicious, to me. It does look like its trying to reorganize. Track will be east of Vermilion Bay. NHC won't shift that far at 10am, but they'll be shifting it east.

Them extending the hurricane warnings east towards Grand Isle is a sign that they are shifting the track east, they have no choice with their beloved TVCN right over Baton Rouge now.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 988mb per latest AF recon VDM.

[GCANE]

Good core heating now. 40mm/hr rain rate.