ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Francine is clearly moving NNE now. Consensus and all dynamic models have shifted east to central to eastern Vermilion Bay. Could move inland east of Vermilion Bay. Zero rain for Houston out of this.

Please correct me if I am incorrect. I believe the ICON model was pretty much showing this general landfall back on Sept. 5th, no?

That being so would be something crazy!

Correct, and that's why my preliminary track I proposed Saturday was into Vermilion Bay. Other models were indicating anywhere from Tampico (GFS) to the mid TX coast. This type of storm/setup always results in a track east of most model guidance. Watch where the heaviest convection lies. The center always follows the convection. That convection is NE.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/RSkybyrd/status/1742537360187732108

[kevin]

Lowest extrapolated pressure so far seems to be 991.7 mbar with 7 kt winds -> 991 mbar. Highest FL winds so far in the NE quadrant are 47 kt.

[tropicwatch]

Doesn't appear to have moved much in the past couple of hours.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is slightly east of forecast track

[wxman57]

Doesn't appear to have moved much in the past couple of hours.

It's clearly moving NE: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis_swir

[wxman57]

Looks like it is slightly east of forecast track

It's definitely moving east of NHC's track. Heaviest convection is NE of the center, indicating where it's heading. Will likely move inland east of Vermilion Bay. I wouldn't rule out the Alabama coast after clipping SE LA, but not forecasting that yet.

[GCANE]

Nothing dry about the air NE of the CoC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 0-1119.png

[GCANE]

I am expecting near rapid intensification nearly all thru daylight hours.

[kevin]

Pressure down to 990 mbar based on the dropsonde.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 395 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Wrapping up quickly on radar, a lot more classic look. Those convective bursts are working their magic

[Janie2006]

Looks like it is slightly east of forecast track

It's definitely moving east of NHC's track. Heaviest convection is NE of the center, indicating where it's heading. Will likely move inland east of Vermilion Bay. I wouldn't rule out the Alabama coast after clipping SE LA, but not forecasting that yet.

You can stop that right now.

Gah.

[xironman]

I am expecting near rapid intensification nearly all thru daylight hours.

The shear has relaxed where it is now so I agree. The satellite and radar presentation are much more symmetrical, and the aircraft obs show it much better stacked. The upper level winds will pick up tomorrow, but the storm will be turned into the same direction the winds will be going. So the question is what the effective shear will be.

[REDHurricane]

I have a feeling Francine will look much different than this in 24 hours, she seems primed for RI now

[Frank P]

Doesn't appear to have moved much in the past couple of hours.

It's clearly moving NE: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis_swir

If it's already moving NE now and expected to bend as it approaches the coast that doesn't bode well for SELA I would assume.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Janie2006]

If it's already moving NE now and expected to bend as it approaches the coast that doesn't bode well for SELA I would assume.

And it cracks open the door for coastal Mississippi and Alabama as alluded to by Wxman, although that’s certainly leaping to conclusions at the moment.

[Steve]

Looks like it is slightly east of forecast track

It's definitely moving east of NHC's track. Heaviest convection is NE of the center, indicating where it's heading. Will likely move inland east of Vermilion Bay. I wouldn't rule out the Alabama coast after clipping SE LA, but not forecasting that yet.

You can stop that right now.

Gah.

Hello Janie. So nice to see you back. Good luck over there.

Light rain has been steady here since I woke up in the 4am hour. Long way to go get to late tomorrow night and Thursday when maybe things are closer to normal. Unfortunately some people will lose their homes and lives. So take care and heed all local warnings. Heading to work but I said **** some **** and wore jeans.

[GCANE]

Looks like eyewall just about to close off on radar

[tolakram]

Floater links

COD: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

SLIDER: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1044.7443084716797&y=1012.2158813476562&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

UW: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16_meso1.html

GOES: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL062024#homePageLink