ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Organization looks great and coming together rapidly but there's still a huge slot of dry air in there it needs to mix out.

I'm sure the time of the day may have a lot to do with it.

[Ubuntwo]

Dry air entrainment during this phase is common, and microwave/radar show that everything under the hood is organizing. Pressure is probably the same or a little lower than the recon pass earlier, guess we’ll see when it gets there. Unless new convection doesn’t form in the eyewall overnight, I don’t think anything we are seeing suggests this to be a weakening storm.

I agree, though it wouldn’t surprise me to see winds the same or even slightly lower in the very short term. This is usually a period of axisymmetrization, where the storm develops a more balanced wind structure - usually a prerequisite to RI.

[WaveBreaking]

Dry air entrainment during this phase is common, and microwave/radar show that everything under the hood is organizing. Pressure is probably the same or a little lower than the recon pass earlier, guess we’ll see when it gets there. Unless new convection doesn’t form in the eyewall overnight, I don’t think anything we are seeing suggests this to be a weakening storm.

I agree, though it wouldn’t surprise me to see winds the same or even slightly lower in the very short term. This is usually a period of axisymmetrization, where the storm develops a more balanced wind structure - usually a prerequisite to RI.

Yeah, reminds me of when Ian had that skeletal look to it before starting its RI phase before Cuba. Not saying that it will pull off what Ian did tho.

[Teban54]

Even though the SE quad is obviously less convectively active at the moment, it gives some gorgeous visible imagery.

[xironman]

Even though the SE quad is obviously less convectively active at the moment, it gives some gorgeous visible imagery.

Those mesos swinging around the proto eyewall should take car of that

[Visioen]

Is it doing an EWRC yet

[Teban54]

Dry air entrainment during this phase is common, and microwave/radar show that everything under the hood is organizing. Pressure is probably the same or a little lower than the recon pass earlier, guess we’ll see when it gets there. Unless new convection doesn’t form in the eyewall overnight, I don’t think anything we are seeing suggests this to be a weakening storm.

I agree, though it wouldn’t surprise me to see winds the same or even slightly lower in the very short term. This is usually a period of axisymmetrization, where the storm develops a more balanced wind structure - usually a prerequisite to RI.

This was also well-anticipated by the hurricane models. HAFS-A and B, the only two models that correctly showed the 995 mb pressure around 17z, had slow or negligible deepening in the following 12-18 hours before starting RI.

[sphelps8681]

Is it possible for another eyewall reformation? Or is it done. Thanks.

[NDG]

Dry air entrainment during this phase is common, and microwave/radar show that everything under the hood is organizing. Pressure is probably the same or a little lower than the recon pass earlier, guess we’ll see when it gets there. Unless new convection doesn’t form in the eyewall overnight, I don’t think anything we are seeing suggests this to be a weakening storm.

I agree, though it wouldn’t surprise me to see winds the same or even slightly lower in the very short term. This is usually a period of axisymmetrization, where the storm develops a more balanced wind structure - usually a prerequisite to RI.

This was also well-anticipated by the hurricane models. HAFS-A and B, the only two models that correctly showed the 995 mb pressure around 17z, had slow or negligible deepening in the following 12-18 hours before starting RI.

Very impressed with HAFS so far.

[Visioen]

Is it possible for another eyewall reformation? Or is it done. Thanks.

I think you mean center reformation. It's done.

[LadyBug72]

Is it possible for another eyewall reformation? Or is it done. Thanks.

Meteorologist Eric Graves said another reformation would be extremely rare given how deep the new center is.

[WiscoWx02]

The dry air entrainment struggle has begun and will likely continue to plague the system until landfall. Category 1 is the likely ceiling thanks to entrainment. Models have been seeing this more and more today, with the dry air struggle being clearly show on the Euro’s 700-300 hPa Relative Humidity scheme…GFS shows it as well.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The dry air entrainment struggle has begun and will likely continue to plague the system until landfall. Category 1 is the likely ceiling thanks to entrainment. Models have been seeing this more and more today, with the dry air struggle being clearly show on the Euro’s 700-300 hPa Relative Humidity scheme…GFS shows it as well.

Not sure we're seeing dry air issues... this looks like natural diurnal effects.

[xironman]

The dry air entrainment struggle has begun and will likely continue to plague the system until landfall. Category 1 is the likely ceiling thanks to entrainment. Models have been seeing this more and more today, with the dry air struggle being clearly show on the Euro’s 700-300 hPa Relative Humidity scheme…GFS shows it as well.

I don't see significant dry air until Wed

[ConvergenceZone]

The dry air entrainment struggle has begun and will likely continue to plague the system until landfall. Category 1 is the likely ceiling thanks to entrainment. Models have been seeing this more and more today, with the dry air struggle being clearly show on the Euro’s 700-300 hPa Relative Humidity scheme…GFS shows it as well.

If what you are saying is true, then why did the NHC just upgrade the landfall to a strong Cat 2? almost Cat 3?

[NDG]

Plenty of good data is going to be going into tonight's 0z models' runs.

[Blinhart]

The dry air entrainment struggle has begun and will likely continue to plague the system until landfall. Category 1 is the likely ceiling thanks to entrainment. Models have been seeing this more and more today, with the dry air struggle being clearly show on the Euro’s 700-300 hPa Relative Humidity scheme…GFS shows it as well.

Where are you getting all this??? all models are saying Cat 2 is most likely and Cat 3 isn't still out of realm of possibility.

[Category5Kaiju]

The dry air entrainment struggle has begun and will likely continue to plague the system until landfall. Category 1 is the likely ceiling thanks to entrainment. Models have been seeing this more and more today, with the dry air struggle being clearly show on the Euro’s 700-300 hPa Relative Humidity scheme…GFS shows it as well.

The NHC just updated the possible landfall intensity, which is now at Category 2 strength.

Is there a specific source you're getting this info? Don't get me wrong, I'd be extremely happy if this system underperforms and hits land as a minimal strength system, but unfortunately the trends have not been going in that direction.

[BobHarlem]

The dry air entrainment struggle has begun and will likely continue to plague the system until landfall. Category 1 is the likely ceiling thanks to entrainment. Models have been seeing this more and more today, with the dry air struggle being clearly show on the Euro’s 700-300 hPa Relative Humidity scheme…GFS shows it as well.

I'm not seeing any dry air on the water vapor getting in, don't confuse it with structural issues of it winding up (and daytime warming). It could get the dry air later but not until around landfall time, by then the momentum will already have been established and surge, etc.



Outflow is good, any dry air getting in from the outside is getting mixed out at all levels, which the WV shows plainly here:

[TomballEd]

A storm this time of year would often head W or NW, but the jet is very far S. This usually happens closer to the Equinox, I assume it is temporary. Ian strengthening despite shear and dry air shows how much baroclinic processes can maintain a storm or at least reduce its decay in otherwise less favorable conditions. I'm not sure looking at long range BRO radar dry air is already affecting the core. GFS doesn't get the dry air to the core until just before landfall.