ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

GOES is back. Structure looks good, but it does seem like it ingested some dry air on top of the typical CCC collapse.

I said this earlier, but was told otherwise....

Don't really see any dry air injestion on the wv, at mid or low levels (click mid/low for wv sat view). Looks more like daytime warming.

[Steve]

Post landfall it looks like the track initially will be almost due north for a while. The NAMs (except 3km which humorously drops it to 930 before landfall) all show a NNE move and then a little bit of a hook NE then a move more toward due north. Our private weather forecaster also noted this in an email.

[wx98]

Looks like a good analog for path and potential intensity is Edith 1971 (if you delete the southern Caribbean trek and the Cat 5 Central America landfall, on Sept 9 btw). Edith touched the northeast Mexican coastline and then jetted northeastward to a central Louisiana Cat 2 landfall.

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1833244492045967427

[Nederlander]

[jasons2k]

Trough will pick it up

MLC is trekking westward on Brownsville radar.

It’s just crazy that a storm that far south and west, this early in September, is forecast to make landfall east over in Louisiana.

I think we all agree on that. I just wouldn’t expect to see this setup before mid September. It’s definitely a more fall-like setup with the jet dipping and pushing the storm east instead of tugging it NNW.

[NDG]

I'm sure a combination of some dry air into into its CoC is what it has given it popping an eye, but that's still an eye to me though it may not be a hurricane in strength yet.

[Travorum]

I'm sure a combination of some dry air into into its CoC is what it has given it popping an eye, but that's still an eye to me though it may not be a hurricane in strength yet.

https://i.imgur.com/bGfbY90.png

Here's the 37GHz, its getting that cyan ring look.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Horn1991]

Looks like a good analog for path and potential intensity is Edith 1971 (if you delete the southern Caribbean trek and the Cat 5 Central America landfall, on Sept 9 btw). Edith touched the northeast Mexican coastline and then jetted northeastward to a central Louisiana Cat 2 landfall.

[Stormgodess]

Landfall intensity just upgraded to Cat 2

[Hurricane2022]

[WaveBreaking]

Visible reminds me of an Ammonite shell

[xironman]

It was a malformed mess 18hrs ago. We aren't in Kansas anymore.

[Stormgodess]

A tale of two local station forcast maps

I'm not sure which is better, or which informs the public the most, but the difference can be confusing to the everyday person

[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/p9oZ20i[/imgur]

[MGC]

100mph landfall intensity now forecast. Slight track shift west at 4pm advisory.....MGC

[Hurrilurker]

Organization looks great and coming together rapidly but there's still a huge slot of dry air in there it needs to mix out.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dry air entrainment during this phase is common, and microwave/radar show that everything under the hood is organizing. Pressure is probably the same or a little lower than the recon pass earlier, guess we’ll see when it gets there. Unless new convection doesn’t form in the eyewall overnight, I don’t think anything we are seeing suggests this to be a weakening storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

100mph landfall intensity now forecast. Slight track shift west at 4pm advisory.....MGC

It will be interesting to see if they go higher in the future, or if we are approaching the potential cap of this system.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This morning's massive -90C convective blob has collapsed, now showing a more classic spiral shape. Won't take long to see more deep convection fire in the center.