ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Even on visible satellite loop it is getting very apparent its CoC, this thing is getting its act together fast.

https://i.imgur.com/t41rQYJ.gif

Where are you getting that imagery? GOES is still down.

Zoom.Earth appears to be current: https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=22.9598,-93.2084,7z

I have checked College of Dupage, and it's still up

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1833223766442147930

[cheezyWXguy]

That prominent band draped over the north side of the system is like a moisture pipeline. Should see some more big convective bursts overnight as banding continues to establish itself around the core.

[wx98]

Likely gonna see an increase from NHC to 55 kts at 21z. They’ll probably up the forecast to a Cat 2 at landfall.

[Steejo91]

When is the next RECON flight into Francine?? Would really love to know what is happening under the hood right about now. Visible Sat is looking fairly healthy and concerning!

[Sciencerocks]

[Stormgodess]

So, in yalls early opinions... If we were to "Storm Compare".

Would yall say that the Baton Rouge area should prepare for the same type of impact as Gustav? Possibly worse?

Just as a just in case scenario?

[Travorum]

When is the next RECON flight into Francine?? Would really love to know what is happening under the hood right about now. Visible Sat is looking fairly healthy and concerning!

NOAA should be departing any minute now, and AF should depart at 2115Z.

[Steve]

When is the next RECON flight into Francine?? Would really love to know what is happening under the hood right about now. Visible Sat is looking fairly healthy and concerning!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Scroll down to #4. Looks to be upper-air sampling soon to be in progress as that mission is in progress.

[aspen]

GOES is back. Structure looks good, but it does seem like it ingested some dry air on top of the typical CCC collapse.

[wx98]

So the new center appears to be significantly further NW than the official center, any long term impact to the track and eventual landfall?

Not anticipating major changes track wise. The new center is actually slightly east of the newest HAFS forecasts, which still take this into Louisiana.

NHC will likely nudge the track back west a little bit with the center being further west. Between Intracoastal City and Lake Charles.

[WaveBreaking]

It feels like Francine is coming together so quickly. Like it just got upgraded to an TS a few hours ago and is already forming an eye.

[FLpanhandle91]

Wil be curious to see how Francine interacts with environmental shear as it approaches the coast. I've been reading the below article and it suggests that when the TC-induced shear vector (outflow) is pointed against environmental shear, it can facilitate intensification. Would love if a met can more accurately digest and ELI5. Is this hypothesis relegated to upper-level wind shear?

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0231.1.xml

[Category5Kaiju]

It feels like Francine is coming together so quickly. Like it just got upgraded to an TS a few hours ago and is already forming an eye.

https://i.imgur.com/MqCYjQm.jpeg

Yeah, that’s a really healthy-looking storm. Outflow to the north looks pretty amazing

[Frank P]

So the new center appears to be significantly further NW than the official center, any long term impact to the track and eventual landfall?

Not anticipating major changes track wise. The new center is actually slightly east of the newest HAFS forecasts, which still take this into Louisiana.

NHC will likely nudge the track back west a little bit with the center being further west. Between Intracoastal City and Lake Charles.

Dude you've been right every time with your NHC comments, you must have inside information..

[Steve]

So the new center appears to be significantly further NW than the official center, any long term impact to the track and eventual landfall?

Not anticipating major changes track wise. The new center is actually slightly east of the newest HAFS forecasts, which still take this into Louisiana.

NHC will likely nudge the track back west a little bit with the center being further west. Between Intracoastal City and Lake Charles.

Could be. The 18z early cycles did go a little west from the 12z late cycles.

[Stormgodess]

Wil be curious to see how Francine interacts with environmental shear as it approaches the coast. I've been reading the below article and it suggests that when the TC-induced shear vector (outflow) is pointed against environmental shear, it can facilitate intensification. Would love if a met can more accurately digest and ELI5. Is this hypothesis relegated to upper-level wind shear?

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0231.1.xml

Didn't we have that possibly happen with a storm last season? I'm sorry I'm getting old and my memory is shot. Maybe Idalia?

[kevin]

Looks like an eye feature forming on VIS. Or a dry slot?

[Nederlander]

GOES is back. Structure looks good, but it does seem like it ingested some dry air on top of the typical CCC collapse.

I said this earlier, but was told otherwise....

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined