ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

995.0 mb would that put the center at ~23.7N and 95.5W, is that what I am seeing? ... NHC @LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
https://i.ibb.co/YRz9jnb/recon-AF308-0306-A-INVEST-zoom.png

Still moving NNW from 20N -93.(2-4)W yesterday.

Once this misses the front, what are the models going to do with the track?
Normal scenario in the open Atlantic is S then W then N then OTS.
So maybe the northern motion will slow a little then a couple steps W then couple steps E?

[Teban54]

VDM with an eyewall open to the W...

366
URNT12 KNHC 091722
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062024
A. 09/16:45:10Z
B. 23.69 deg N 095.85 deg W
C. 850 mb 1387 m
D. 996 mb
E. 140 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN W
G. C20
H. NA
I. NA
J. 308 deg 31 kt
K. 219 deg 6 nm 16:43:30Z
L. 47 kt
M. 047 deg 55 nm 17:02:00Z
N. 133 deg 58 kt
O. 044 deg 12 nm 16:49:00Z
P. 16 C / 1523 m
Q. 20 C / 1524 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF308 0306A INVEST OB 08
MAX FL WIND 58 KT 044 / 12 NM 16:49:00Z
;

[NDG]

VDM confirms eyewall like feature now with Francine.

URNT12 KNHC 091722
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062024
A. 09/16:45:10Z
B. 23.69 deg N 095.85 deg W
C. 850 mb 1387 m
D. 996 mb
E. 140 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN W
G. C20
H. NA
I. NA
J. 308 deg 31 kt
K. 219 deg 6 nm 16:43:30Z
L. 47 kt
M. 047 deg 55 nm 17:02:00Z
N. 133 deg 58 kt
O. 044 deg 12 nm 16:49:00Z
P. 16 C / 1523 m
Q. 20 C / 1524 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF308 0306A INVEST OB 08
MAX FL WIND 58 KT 044 / 12 NM 16:49:00Z

[ColdMiser123]

So the new center appears to be significantly further NW than the official center, any long term impact to the track and eventual landfall?

Not anticipating major changes track wise. The new center is actually slightly east of the newest HAFS forecasts, which still take this into Louisiana.

[Kazmit]

The 12z GFS doesn’t have Francine at its current pressure until 18z tomorrow, i.e., about 24 hours from now.

[ElectricStorm]

Well pressure is certainly lower than I expected it to be. We'll see if it can sustain. I was thinking around a 75-85kt peak but if it doesn't go through any hiccups I could see it getting a little stronger than that perhaps.

[NDG]

The 12z GFS doesn’t have Francine at its current pressure until 18z tomorrow, i.e., about 24 hours from now.

I was about to mention that, time to pay more attention to the hurricane models, in particular HAFS-B.

[Nederlander]

Looks like she might be pulling in a bit of dry air. If so, that could help to keep things in check.

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow nice shape, Francine!

https://i.ibb.co/CzwfJzs/GOES17362024253anj-QIl.jpg

[BobHarlem]

Is GOES-E glitching out or is it just some of the distribution network? I'm starting to see issues on multiple websites with some of the frames of it.

[Stormgodess]

Wow nice shape, Francine!

https://i.ibb.co/CzwfJzs/GOES17362024253anj-QIl.jpg

She's a BIG girl!

[tolakram]

It jumps location, but 100 frame 2n saved loop

[BobHarlem]

Brownsville radar being interesting with the obvious mlc at the very least:

[zal0phus]

I'm very bullish on Francine's chances. We know how these Gulf storms tend to be. I don't think a high-end Category 3, or even a Category 4, are off the table.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like she might be pulling in a bit of dry air. If so, that could help to keep things in check.

This is a transitionary period between a bursting/ccc pattern and a banding cdo pattern, which commonly features a reduction in magnitude of convection. That warm spot on visible really is a nascent eye, it lines up with radar and recon obs. This is not a weakening system, but the opposite.

[chaser1]

I'm guessing NHC goes a little stronger at 5:00pm but remains fairly conservative until 11:00pm update. Only other factor might be moving up timing of landfall slightly as a result of northward center relocation. Maybe a minor nudge west landfall as well?

[MississippiWx]

Brownsville radar being interesting with the obvious mlc at the very least:

https://i.imgur.com/8H8cFdJ.gif

Not just the Mid-level center. The low-level center is there too.

[Travorum]

The center relocation combined with the interpolation of the last full advisory cone has produced a funky intermediate advisory cone :

[loon]

In the past being stronger or weaker had X affect on the track.. with the frontal boundry in play, what, if any, affects can be expected here in stronger vs weaker?

[IcyTundra]

In the past being stronger or weaker had X affect on the track.. with the frontal boundry in play, what, if any, affects can be expected here in stronger vs weaker?

The stronger it is the further east it will go.