ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Like Ortt pointed out, weakening is the trend right now, but doesnt mean it wont ramp back up later.


https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=13&length=24

Typically these large CDOs (CCC if you will) are unsustainable, research has shown they can indicate halted intensification but may mask structural changes. In this case Francine’s intensity is roughly the same but the storm now has a tight LLC roughly stacked with the MLC. I expected structured convection to replace the burst as it fades.

I could be wrong however my perception leans toward the latter possibility. We'll see but I'm thinking a LLC becoming better co-located with the MLC and a possible 2:00pm position closer to 24N & 95W

[tolakram]

I'm sure this has been already addressed but I am unaware. What is going on with the GOES sat.??

Appears to be some geomagnetic activity.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm


Could be due to that.

I seem to remember a comment a few years ago that it has to do with the angle of the sun in relationship to the orbit of the satellite. Twice a year it's impacted as the orbit is geocentric and as we orbit around the sun the apparent sun angle changes. The solar activity from the recent CME should ramp up tomorrow, which might also mess with it. Really not sure.

[cheezyWXguy]

Radar presentation is coming together very quickly, with a distinct mid level center becoming apparent. Convection will ebb and flow as this organizes. Assuming these radar trends continue, I am tending to lean bullish on the RI prospects.

[ConvergenceZone]

I really don't think the storm is weakening like some are suggesting. I could be wrong, but I think it's just pulsing.

[MississippiWx]

Yooo...Extrap. down to 995mb and not in the center yet.

[chaser1]

I'm sure this has been already addressed but I am unaware. What is going on with the GOES sat.??

Appears to be some geomagnetic activity.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm


Could be due to that.

I seem to remember a comment a few years ago that it has to do with the angle of the sun in relationship to the orbit of the satellite. Twice a year it's impacted as the orbit is geocentric and as we orbit around the sun the apparent sun angle changes. The solar activity from the recent CME should ramp up tomorrow, which might also mess with it. Really not sure.

CME affects notwithstanding, I think you are referring to the annual (satellite) eclipse? For years and years I recall that impact to satellite but had thought this did not occur until roughly end of Sept or October?

[Hurricane2022]

Yooo...Extrap. down to 995mb and not in the center yet.

A fairly tight core is forming. Lowest extrap pressure was 995.0

[cheezyWXguy]

Sounds like recon is confirming radar trends are genuine.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like the MLC has fully mixed down now with pressures of 995mb and 58kt at flight level. Small batch of hurricane force returns on long distance radar. This was shown well on some of the hurricane models and isolated GFS runs, let’s see if it holds.

[xironman]

Yooo...Extrap. down to 995mb and not in the center yet.

It is almost like old 90l took over the game.

[aspen]

I really don't think the storm is weakening like some are suggesting. I could be wrong, but I think it's just pulsing.

Yeah it’s simply convective pulsing. It started off with a CCC, which is likely giving way for an eventual CDO now that the MLC and LLC are stacked and a core is forming. I believe something similar was observed with Sally.

[Ubuntwo]

I really don't think the storm is weakening like some are suggesting. I could be wrong, but I think it's just pulsing.

Yeah it’s simply convective pulsing. It started off with a CCC, which is likely giving way for an eventual CDO now that the MLC and LLC are stacked and a core is forming. I believe something similar was observed with Sally.

Almost this exact evolution with Sally. A CCC gave way to a center relocation and extremely steep pressure drop. Sally then actually weakened for a bit as the tops faded before reestablishing its structure and running with it. Let’s see what happens this time.

[Kazmit]

Much steeper pressure gradient compared to early this morning. It’s go time.

[NDG]

Radar confirms that Francine is getting vertically stacked, no wonder the pressure dropped so quickly, unfortunately for the people in southern LA.

[Frank P]

995.0 mb would that put the center at ~23.7N and 95.5W, is that what I am seeing? ... NHC @LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W

[Teban54]

995.0 mb would that put the center at ~23.7N and 95.5W, is that what I am seeing? ... NHC @LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
https://i.ibb.co/YRz9jnb/recon-AF308-0306-A-INVEST-zoom.png

55+ kt FL that's well-associated with the now-stacked 995 mb center and nothing to do with the front?

[aspen]

I really don't think the storm is weakening like some are suggesting. I could be wrong, but I think it's just pulsing.

Yeah it’s simply convective pulsing. It started off with a CCC, which is likely giving way for an eventual CDO now that the MLC and LLC are stacked and a core is forming. I believe something similar was observed with Sally.

Almost this exact evolution with Sally. A CCC gave way to a center relocation and extremely steep pressure drop. Sally then actually weakened for a bit as the tops faded before reestablishing its structure and running with it. Let’s see what happens this time.

I think Sally was still fighting shear when the center reformed. The relocation gave it a sudden boost and a small window to intensify, but shear remained an issue, even though it did manage to eventually reach 95 kt.

I think Francine will level off for a bit now that the centers are stacked. Doubtful it’ll weaken at all in the short term, but it probably won’t keep deepening until it’s sorted out its developing inner core and CCC-to-CDO transition.

[Pipelines182]

So the new center appears to be significantly further NW than the official center, any long term impact to the track and eventual landfall?

[EasyTiger]

Yooo...Extrap. down to 995mb and not in the center yet.

It is almost like old 90l took over the game.

90L appeared to have the stronger circulation, 91L just brought the fuel

[PDKlikatino]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this looks significantly better than a 45kt TS, at least on visual. Given how fast she is organizing and how favorable the environment is, I get the feeling we're going to see something a bit stronger than a 75kt CAT 1 in a few days...