ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

I missed the #Francine by a few seconds

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1833145782838391026

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I guess the Atlantic is capable of producing Tropical Storms this month after all.

[tolakram]

I guess the Atlantic is capable of producing Tropical Storms this month after all.

https://i.imgur.com/tlcMMlJ.jpeg

Record gulf heat, peak of hurricane season, one hurricane on the menu. Fingers crossed that whatever has been limiting development also limits intensity.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1833149572727635975

[aspen]

Thinking the circulation is elongated NW to SE.

[GCANE]

Seeing an increase in the warm-core signatures

[cajungal]

Today is also anniversary of Betsy which went straight up Bayou Lafourche. My mom’s Betsy stories riding it out as a teenager in Thibodaux got me hooked on weather. My dad lived in Cut off at the time and no phone service or power for 3 weeks.

[chaser1]

Woke up and took a quick look and .... BOOM We interrupt the "Great 2024 Lull" for the convective explosion and rapid organization of Francine. Please note that the captain has illuminated the remain seated with seatbelts ON

[NDG]

Legit structure of a tropical storm, CoC looks to still be a little elongated/broad as seen on recon reports.

[MississippiWx]

The structure of the convection is conducive to quick strengthening, but underneath the hood is not for now. The pressure gradient is broad/loose which can take time. The longer it remains like this, the less of a chance it has to be anything significant. Will be interesting to see if the convective pattern can remain long enough to tighten the pressure gradient below. If it does, we might have a bigger problem.

[Blinhart]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES
ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island,
Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand
Isle in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas,
to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth
of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch in in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* West of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Blinhart]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES
ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island,
Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand
Isle in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas,
to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth
of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch in in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* West of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

So I'm now under a Hurricane Watch

[GCANE]

This may rapidly increase in intensity starting in a couple hours.
Could last thru the afternoon.
Note the large hot tower firing off south of the CoC.

[tiger_deF]

It looks like the center is relocating. HH flying right through the previous pass and still finding SW winds.

[Category5Kaiju]

And….we now have Francine.

Just by looking at it, the storm seems pretty healthy with great ventilation and a structure eerily reminiscent of maturing WPAC storms in the South China Sea. Will be watching this one closely as between this and the ultra warm Gulf waters, I personally think it has a considerable ceiling.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at recon obs we might have competing centers trying to form.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like the center might be reforming more in the dead center of the convective mass. This would certainly help the organization process.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the center might be reforming more in the dead center of the convective mass. This would certainly help the organization process.

Brownsville radar suggests this, but it’s hard to tell as the core is nearly out of range and looking fairly high up.

[PTrackerLA]

Hurricane Watch here in Lafayette...about to slip out for lunch early and hit the store as I'm sure things are already getting crazy.

[aspen]

Congrats Atlantic, you finally produced an ASO named storm for the first time in 28 days!

The 11am intensity seems pretty reasonable. While SHIPS is high and SSTs are near record-high, Francine only has like 48 hours before shear starts becoming unfavorable. Could it end up having an unforeseen favorable interaction with the shear vector like Michael or Ian? Perhaps, but for now it’s safe to expect a plateauing or weakening trend before landfall, which is what all the hurricane models currently show.