ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

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kevin
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#241 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:02 am

Recon (AF308) is on its way.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#242 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:03 am

WaveBreaking wrote:The cold tops on this could put some WPAC invests to shame. I see multiple -90C overshooting tops in this loop :eek:

EDIT: Also the most recent burst of convection is nearly right over where the NHC has the center at (22N 94.7W).
https://i.imgur.com/NMbQrhN.gif



This is really starting to look bad for the gulf coast.
Outflow is going to be almost perfect, and shear is not an issue that far south.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#243 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:04 am

WaveBreaking wrote:The cold tops on this could put some WPAC invests to shame. I see multiple -90C overshooting tops in this loop :eek:

EDIT: Also the most recent burst of convection is nearly right over where the NHC has the center at (22N 94.7W).
https://i.imgur.com/NMbQrhN.gif


Probably the most impressive PTCs I've seen, some of those cloud tops are well below -90C. And this new burst seems to be consolidating the LLC.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#244 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:16 am

kevin wrote:Recon (AF308) is on its way.

I’d say odds are decently high it finds Francine. If PTC6 isn’t organized enough to be a TC yet, I imagine it’s probably pretty close and will get upgraded later today.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#245 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:45 am

Skeptics: "This season's over and there's a decent chance there will be no active storms on peak season day"

Narrator: "It was not, in fact" :lol:
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#246 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:47 am

I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#247 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:54 am

Steve wrote:I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.


Plan on doing that in a couple hours.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#248 Postby REDHurricane » Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:54 am

Looks like she's already attempting to shrimp out -- I bet it won't take too much longer to reach full shrimp mode, maybe by the end of today even :eek:

Image
Last edited by REDHurricane on Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#249 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:00 am

Convection is started to get more concentrated near the estimated CoC.
I think recon will find a defined enough LLC before its mission is over for Francine to begin.

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#250 Postby MONTEGUT_LA » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:03 am

Steve wrote:I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.


On my way now to pick up more supplies and then we going to head to Thibodaux to my son's house. We had minor flooding for ida, but she hit more to the east of us. I never trust the leeves lol
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#251 Postby cajungal » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:06 am

MONTEGUT_LA wrote:
Steve wrote:I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.


On my way now to pick up more supplies and then we going to head to Thibodaux to my son's house. We had minor flooding for ida, but she hit more to the east of us. I never trust the leeves lol


I am in Thibodaux. Just can’t believe here we go again
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#252 Postby SohCahToa » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:16 am

Steve wrote:I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.


Just got back to Mandeville from an 8 day long work trip. Luckily I’m off today so I’ll probably do the same. I JUST put up a dang trampoline for the kids too :(
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#253 Postby cajungal » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:19 am

SohCahToa wrote:
Steve wrote:I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.


Just got back to Mandeville from an 8 day long work trip. Luckily I’m off today so I’ll probably do the same. I JUST put up a dang trampoline for the kids too :(


Just take the net down and anchor it to the ground. That is what we did for Ida and trampoline survived. I am in Thibodaux
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#254 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:31 am

Despite some very "warm" temps at 200 mb in the western GOM it has been very stormy underneath it during the past few days in that area and now PTC 6 about to become officially Francine. A good friend of mine pro-met T. Scott, told me that mid level temps are important for instability than way way at h20.

Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#255 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:39 am

Fresh recon getting ready for a pass, we'll see if it's name worthy or not (I'd be surprised if not).
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#256 Postby MONTEGUT_LA » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:55 am

cajungal wrote:
MONTEGUT_LA wrote:
Steve wrote:I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.


On my way now to pick up more supplies and then we going to head to Thibodaux to my son's house. We had minor flooding for ida, but she hit more to the east of us. I never trust the leeves lol


I am in Thibodaux. Just can’t believe here we go again


Ppl in terrebonne are taking this seriously. Ppl are buying supplies (water, gas cans, etc) .. Ida is still a very recent memory.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#257 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:56 am

10m winds looking good.
Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#258 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 09, 2024 8:07 am

A shift of winds just south of the deep convection. Circulation seems to still be a bit elongated.

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#259 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 09, 2024 8:08 am

Extrap pressure fell nicely near the center, looks to be slowly organizing a core.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#260 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 09, 2024 8:10 am

xironman wrote:Extrap pressure fell nicely near the center, looks to be slowly organizing a core.


Yeah, I'd go ahead and name it based on that pass. I think they missed the center to the south.
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