ATL: FRANCINE - Models

[Steve]

^^ east. Let’s see what 00z’s are doing

[Stratton23]

no changes on the 10 PM cone track, i have this coming in at the texas/ lousiana border as a 70 mph TS

[Steve]

Nam 3km useless for this. Nam 12km 990’s into St Mary Parish. FV3 ends 980 in NW Gulf.

[Stormcenter]

Actually it's a little further east over Lake Charles and not TX/LA. border.

no changes on the 10 PM cone track, i have this coming in at the texas/ lousiana border as a 70 mph TS

[Stratton23]

Stormcenter very slight shift east, but overall not a big change, the cone still extends from matagorda bay all the way to se lousiana

[Steve]

ICON 993 SCLA.

[NDG]

Crazy similarities between PTC 6 and Hurricane Michael '18
GFS was the first one to sniff Michael becoming a MH before the rest of the models while at the same time SHIPS only had it as TS at landfall with lots of shear over it.

[Teban54]

Crazy similarities between PTC 6 and Hurricane Michael '18
GFS was the first one to sniff Michael becoming a MH before the rest of the models while at the same time SHIPS only had it as TS at landfall with lots of shear over it.

Suddenly we're not just looking at couple of naked swirls in the GOM during peak, huh?

Anyway, the good thing is that this system will have much less time to intensify than Michael did. NHC only expects 48 hours as a TC; going back 48 hours from Michael's landfall, and it was already a 75-kt Cat 1 near the western tip of Cuba about to enter the Gulf. While NHC expects it to form into a TC at an unusually high intensity of 50 kts, it still needs time to build a core.

On the other hand, Zeta was also aided by baroclinic forcing, and it went from a 55 kt TS to Cat 3 in 24-30 hours. Idalia went from a 60 kt TS to 115 kt Cat 4 in 36 hours, and would have intensified further if not for the last-minute EWRC.

[Ubuntwo]

Crazy similarities between PTC 6 and Hurricane Michael '18
GFS was the first one to sniff Michael becoming a MH before the rest of the models while at the same time SHIPS only had it as TS at landfall with lots of shear over it.

OT, but the UKMet was actually the first to show Michael reaching a major hurricane. It had a run in the 920's before an invest was even designated. But this is absolutely no Michael, it is a wave and not a gyre, the genesis pathway for this system is really quite unique. The main similarity here is the potential for baroclinic enhancement.

[Steve]

Crazy similarities between PTC 6 and Hurricane Michael '18
GFS was the first one to sniff Michael becoming a MH before the rest of the models while at the same time SHIPS only had it as TS at landfall with lots of shear over it.

I don’t see it. GFS hasn’t seen the pattern for 2+ weeks. It was always bringing the NW Gulf inland ahead of the trough and along the front - or not doing anything. Instead it stayed disturbed. Maybe it catches a stronger landfall as it did @ 18z but pivotal and TT are slow. Models almost always catch up to reality so I want to see that and CMC before bed so I can decide how badly I need to grab supplies tomorrow to get through a couple days. Doubt there would be TS conditions in New Orleans but we could see rainfall or feeder bands to knock out power being less than 3 days out.

[Stormcenter]

Crazy similarities between PTC 6 and Hurricane Michael '18
GFS was the first one to sniff Michael becoming a MH before the rest of the models while at the same time SHIPS only had it as TS at landfall with lots of shear over it.

Of course it all depends on how strong it becomes and how far east it ends up making landfall whether NOLA receives TS winds or not. All I know right now is that they (NHC) and the models
keeps on nudging the track eastward.

I don’t see it. GFS hasn’t seen the pattern for 2+ weeks. It was always brining the NW Gulf inland ahead of the trough and along the front - or not doing anything. Instead it stayed disturbed. Maybe it catches a stronger landfall as it did @ 18z but pivotal and TT are slow. Models almost always catch up to reality so I want to see that and CMC before bed so I can decide how badly I need to grab supplies tomorrow to get through a couple days. Doubt there would be TS conditions in New Orleans but we could see rainfall or feeder bands to knock out power.

[Cpv17]

no changes on the 10 PM cone track, i have this coming in at the texas/ lousiana border as a 70 mph TS

It has a better chance at going to Vermillion Bay than it does going to the TX/LA border. If I were you I’d shift my prediction at least 75 miles east.

[NDG]

Crazy similarities between PTC 6 and Hurricane Michael '18
GFS was the first one to sniff Michael becoming a MH before the rest of the models while at the same time SHIPS only had it as TS at landfall with lots of shear over it.

Suddenly we're not just looking at couple of naked swirls in the GOM during peak, huh?

Anyway, the good thing is that this system will have much less time to intensify than Michael did. NHC only expects 48 hours as a TC; going back 48 hours from Michael's landfall, and it was already a 75-kt Cat 1 near the western tip of Cuba about to enter the Gulf. While NHC expects it to form into a TC at an unusually high intensity of 50 kts, it still needs time to build a core.

On the other hand, Zeta was also aided by baroclinic forcing, and it went from a 55 kt TS to Cat 3 in 24-30 hours. Idalia went from a 60 kt TS to 115 kt Cat 4 in 36 hours, and would have intensified further if not for the last-minute EWRC.

Definitely Michael had an extra day, but it still went from a TD to a Cat 5 in a little over 72 hrs, it strengthened rapidly to a hurricane in the NW Caribbean before entering the SE GOM with a lot more shear than what PTC 6 will have over the next 48 hrs. This might be the reason why the latest SHIPS has the chances for RI nine times higher than climatology.

[Steve]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

[cajungal]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

I know that this storm won’t be like Ida but not liking this at all here in Lafourche. Didn’t I say almost 2 weeks ago on this forum beware of the wave in the Caribbean? And here we are

[Steve]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

I know that this storm won’t be like Ida but not liking this at all here in Lafourche. Didn’t I say almost 2 weeks ago on this forum beware of the wave in the Caribbean? And here we are

Yeah. Lots of us have been saying watch it. We had that prolonged phase 4 MJO and the NW Gulf stayed loaded. 90l didn’t do anything by itself but maybe it was a harbinger. Y’all are going to be close in on the action too and probably WBR and Pointe Coupe as far as rainfall if GFS doesn’t adjust farther east. Rainfall is heavy in a narrow swath.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90900&fh=6

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 my prediction is based on shear, its an unpopular opinion but I think the shear wins this battle and prevents this from taking off, maybe a cat 1 at the most for me, the trough thats steering this will also be imparting westerly shear on it, thats going to be very difficult for a system to maintain a core

[Steve]

CMC upper 980’s Vernillion Pariah.

[Cpv17]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

I know that this storm won’t be like Ida but not liking this at all here in Lafourche. Didn’t I say almost 2 weeks ago on this forum beware of the wave in the Caribbean? And here we are

Wouldn’t be hurricane season without LA getting hit by something. You guys are a TC magnet.

[NDG]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

It shifted a good 15-20 miles east from previous 18z run. Landfall before midnight Wednesday night.