ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

When is the next advisory. I am in SE Tx.

Intermediate advisory at 7pm if watches or warnings up. Full advisory at 10pm CDT and are every 6 hours

[WaveBreaking]

Latest sandwich loop (before goes-16 started having issues):

[Hypercane_Kyle]

WPAC lookin' convection.

[WaveBreaking]

WPAC lookin' convection.

https://i.imgur.com/GPjTmhE.jpeg

Just shows how warm the waters in the GOM are rn.

[wxman57]

I'm still thinking landfall closer to west side of Vermilion Bay. I think the consensus models are too far west due to the poor-performing HWRF, which takes it inland into Matagorda, and the HMON.

[TomballEd]

I'm looking at multiple sites. All have the weird missing areas. I think the satellite itself is working, it is having a comms issue. Pretty oblique angle if they have to use a different satellite. I'm not staying up for the 0Z models, but they should do better, especially the hurricane models, with the added data near the center.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is there anything that can cause this to be stronger than expected? or do you think cat 1 is the cap at this point? I tried to find something in the NHC discussion, but I didn't see anything that mentioned intensity forecast was conservative.

[TomballEd]

Perillo was doing weather in Lafayette back in the 1990s. He is good.

 https://x.com/robperillo/status/1832898189659177158

[WaveBreaking]

Latest meso:

[Steve]

What could cause this to go a little farther east, more towards the tip of Louisiana?

The stronger it becomes the further east it will go. The 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro both take PTC6 to Vermillion Bay which is currently on the eastern end of model guidance right now which makes sense considering they are the most bullish right now.

I was thinking that too icy but I haven’t been looking much at upper patterns. Presumably for this to have a NW component for a few days there had to be a ridge bulging in from the east. So I’m not sure how far east it could even get. Guess I need to check. Yeah. Looks like with GFS and ICON the highest pressure is butt up against the east of 6 coming up.

[EasyTiger]

The interaction between the Canadian low and the Gulf system is fascinating. The Gulf system seems to have a west to southwest tilt at the moment

[Frank P]

[Frank P]

That stalled front looks like a paved driveway for PTC6.

https://i.ibb.co/r23G1mq/Screenshot-2024-09-08-18-30-13.png

[ColdMiser123]

The very cold burst of convection is helping to tighten up the LLC compared to earlier.

[tolakram]

Floater, as the sun sets.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Steve]

Oh whack. Long response to a post that got deleted that won’t post now? Ugh. That was a waste of my time. I’ll just say scientists have different disciplines and may know others who are doing research which might could matter. And we were told we would get information on what that might be if it pans out. I was thinking seismic in gravity waves which G is out front of most pro mets because of his understanding of dynamics and engineering. But after re-reading I’m thinking seismic activity as some correlation maybe not 100% understood which is tipped off but not blowing cover.

[Ubuntwo]

To restate, the intense deepening depicted on the GFS is the result of baroclinic support due to the trough interaction. This could improve outflow and allow for quick deepening in spite of theoretically high shear. These interactions are usually quite hard to forecast, and depend on placement with respect to the trough and a generally well-organized system prior to the onset of the interaction. It’s not shown on all models but will be something to watch out for with 6L.

[WaveBreaking]

GOES imagery on Tropical Tidbits and CyclonicWX seems to be broken atm, but NOAA's site for GOES imagery and RAMMB SLIDER are both still functional rn.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should be a TD by 5am, if not sooner.