ATL: FRANCINE - Models

[cajungal]

GFS getting real close to major hurricane territory…

[Hypercane_Kyle]

the GFS has 25-40 knots of shear over that strong hurricane, im very suspicious of a strong run like that , that kind of shear would inhibit big strengthening

Gonna depend on the juxtaposition. We gotta learn new stuff with new weather patterns imho.

Yeah, at least to my amateur eye seems like the shear vector causes ventilation that, combined with record breaking SSTs, results in the GFS showing explosive deepening into a major hurricane.

[IcyTundra]

The GFS is a big time outlier for intensity right now. Not saying it can’t happen but with no other models supporting that much intensification it is hard to take the GFS seriously. Let’s see if the 12Z hurricane models show an uptick in intensity.

[cheezyWXguy]

The GFS is a big time outlier for intensity right now. Not saying it can’t happen but with no other models supporting that much intensification it is hard to take the GFS seriously. Let’s see if the 12Z hurricane models show an uptick in intensity.

Definitely an outlier at the moment, but this isn’t an unreasonable solution. Zeta and Ian were similar, and I think Nicholas, Michael and Humberto were too to some degree, but someone can check me on that. Favorable alignment and movement with respect to a trough can result more in enhancement of upper level divergence than storm relative shear. Question is just how likely it is to line up that way. As you said, we’ll see if the other models come around.

[johngaltfla]

GFS is an outlier, but once we get a closed low with storms wrapping, that' s when the models will give us a better picture. If it did verify, it would be an epic disaster for the oil price as it slices through the heart of both Gulf fields but shipping lanes and processing areas on land.

[cajungal]

Would be really bad for St Mary, Terrebonne and Lafourche on the eastern side

[Woofde]

The GFS is a big time outlier for intensity right now. Not saying it can’t happen but with no other models supporting that much intensification it is hard to take the GFS seriously. Let’s see if the 12Z hurricane models show an uptick in intensity.

Yeah, it's an outlier though it does have support from its own previous runs so it can't be thrown out. The ICON also does get this to 991mb. It's short term consolidation will determine how strong this gets.

I'm especially curious to see the Euro ensemble package to see if there's any support there.

[IcyTundra]

There is an uptick in intensity with more strong members in the 12Z GEFS.

[Stormlover70]

There is an uptick in intensity with more strong members in the 12Z GEFS.

looking like a major flooding event as steering collapses in Mississippi valley.

[PTrackerLA]

12z EURO comes in much more intense and similar to GFS track. Down to 974mb before landfall western Vermilion Bay. We've been able to dodge the big ones the past 20+ years here in Lafayette, but this could bring quite an impact in a little over 3 days from now.

[Stratton23]

Euro EPS 12z is way more aggressive, look out upper texas coast- sw lousiana

[Stormlover70]

Yikes

[kevin]

The main reason I'm sceptical is because of the current very high shear in the northern gulf. But if that relaxes a bit, a hurricane or even MH like GFS is showing doesn't seem that unrealistic. 24 hours over some of the warmest GOM waters in recent history could easily do that. Does anyone have more information about the shear forecast of these bullish GFS and Euro runs?

[Teban54]

If the 12z GFS and Euro intensities verify -- and that's a big if -- it would be another huge win for ICON. In addition to expecting something to form in the western Gulf in the first place, it was also the only non-AI model that showed significant deepening more than 4 days out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If the 12z GFS and Euro intensities verify -- and that's a big if -- it would be another huge win for ICON. In addition to expecting something to form in the western Gulf in the first place, it was also the only non-AI model that showed significant deepening more than 4 days out.

It's a massive win for the AI-based Euro; it was calling for this genesis and track literally since last Tuesday. That is some impressive validation.

[Teban54]

If the 12z GFS and Euro intensities verify -- and that's a big if -- it would be another huge win for ICON. In addition to expecting something to form in the western Gulf in the first place, it was also the only non-AI model that showed significant deepening more than 4 days out.

It's a massive win for the AI-based Euro; it was calling for this genesis and track literally since last Tuesday. That is some impressive validation.

ECAI actually first started showing this evolution even way further in advance -- probably the Tuesday before last, around August 27. That was when operational models were on the hype train of another Ida-like storm or a Caribbean cruiser. But EC-AIFS was instead showing a weak low or borderline TC through the Caribbean, then into BoC, being pulled north and intensifying to a hurricane on northern Gulf coast. (This was also about the first thing it showed after a long period of insisting on this becoming a TC near Puerto Rico, followed by an equally long period of showing nothing. Then it came back with this.)

I didn't keep track of ECAI's runs after that, as the consensus at that time was that it's unreliable. Looking at some of TT's archives, it didn't have a lot of consistency in this scenario. But if ECAI did happen to nail the system a full 2 weeks before everyone else, that's quite eerie at the very least, even if just by chance.

[ronjon]

ICON has been really consistent the last 5 days of runs. It also did a good job with Beryl and Debby. Might be the best model so far this season with its consistency and landfall forecasts.

[Ubuntwo]

If the 12z GFS and Euro intensities verify -- and that's a big if -- it would be another huge win for ICON. In addition to expecting something to form in the western Gulf in the first place, it was also the only non-AI model that showed significant deepening more than 4 days out.

It's a massive win for the AI-based Euro; it was calling for this genesis and track literally since last Tuesday. That is some impressive validation.

ECAI actually first started showing this evolution even way further in advance -- probably the Tuesday before last, around August 27. That was when operational models were on the hype train of another Ida-like storm or a Caribbean cruiser. But EC-AIFS was instead showing a weak low or borderline TC through the Caribbean, then into BoC, being pulled north and intensifying to a hurricane on northern Gulf coast. (This was also about the first thing it showed after a long period of insisting on this becoming a TC near Puerto Rico, followed by an equally long period of showing nothing. Then it came back with this.)

I didn't keep track of ECAI's runs after that, as the consensus at that time was that it's unreliable. Looking at some of TT's archives, it didn't have a lot of consistency in this scenario. But if ECAI did happen to nail the system a full 2 weeks before everyone else, that's quite eerie at the very least, even if just by chance.

The ICON was, however, the first operational model to show the merger between a non tropical low in the northern Gulf and this wave. This was actually depicted even earlier on a small cluster of Euro ensembles back in August. You can dig through my post history for a mention of it.

[Steve]

18z ICON Vermillion Parish 15z Wednesday. Landfall been trending a little faster. NAM 12km had 987 a hair farther east toward St. Mary Parish 06z Thursday.

[cheezyWXguy]

Another cat3 on the 18z gfs