ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Haha damnit G. Hook us up with a tease.

It's nothing conspiracy.
Just additional effects most people don't correlate TC intensification with.
So. I won't throw out the details.
Could also see some seismic activity in the area.
I'll leave it at that.

Bro.....you got my attention....talk about a cliff hanger....im curious...

I'll divulge more if it pans out.

[MGC]

Convective war zone down in the Gulf this morning. Looks like a sharp trough axis to me.....I see no well defined circulation, but one could be hiding in there somewhere. When and where a CC closes off if at all is anyone's guess. This has the potential to wrap up quickly as there is little shear over the disturbance currently. Looking like a Louisiana threat to me. Could be a major rainfall threat due to the recent heavy rains there......MGC

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS seems to like the idea of an upper end scenario. Seems to show quite a favorable trough interaction

[Blinhart]

Really shocked they haven't classified this as a PTC yet. Since it is within 5 days of potential landfall as a Hurricane, classifying it as a PTC would help state governments to start activating emergency protocols.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Convective war zone down in the Gulf this morning. Looks like a sharp trough axis to me.....I see no well defined circulation, but one could be hiding in there somewhere. When and where a CC closes off if at all is anyone's guess. This has the potential to wrap up quickly as there is little shear over the disturbance currently. Looking like a Louisiana threat to me. Could be a major rainfall threat due to the recent heavy rains there......MGC

I think the main (if not only) reason for the lack of a well-defined LLC is that 91L is merging with the circulation of ex-90L at the moment. Once that sorts out, it's game on.

[underthwx]

It's nothing conspiracy.
Just additional effects most people don't correlate TC intensification with.
So. I won't throw out the details.
Could also see some seismic activity in the area.
I'll leave it at that.

Bro.....you got my attention....talk about a cliff hanger....im curious...

I'll divulge more if it pans out.

Omg!....okay....fair enough!...

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

[underthwx]

Recon in the air

Nice!!!...hey Gcane...any thoughts on what you feel that recon may discover out there?....

[Hurricaneman]

They’re gonna find a sharp trough but could be enough circulation to call it a depression

[IcyTundra]

Really shocked they haven't classified this as a PTC yet. Since it is within 5 days of potential landfall as a Hurricane, classifying it as a PTC would help state governments to start activating emergency protocols.

They only issue advisories for a PTC if they need to issue watches. Watches are issued roughly 48 hours before impacts begin (potential of TS force winds, storm surge) with how models have trended Mexico is unlikely to experience TS force winds or significant storm surge so it hasn't been necessary to classify this as a PTC. If a TD/TS still hasn't formed by tomorrow then we will likely see a PTC.

[MarioProtVI]

They’re gonna find a sharp trough but could be enough circulation to call it a depression

It has gales already (confirmed by ASCAT) so it’d go right to Francine if designated

[TomballEd]

This is a quote from the morning forecast discussion, from Houston/Galveston NWS..."The weather Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday will be
dictated by the eventual track of a materializing area of low
pressure that is currently in the Bay of Campeche. The system
could very well become the next named tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season (see tropical discussion) as it moves northward, potentially along the Texas Coast. However, I want to focus on the word `potentially` in the previous sentence because there is no shortage of uncertainty regarding the system`s future track. This is due in large part to the low being in its formative stages. Track uncertainty will remain high until we are able to establish a more organized and coherent system. For anyone trying to make a rainfall forecast during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, this uncertainty is downright frustrating"......so....monitor...wait....stayy informed...

Almost all ensemble mebers keep this offshore Texas and hit Louisiana, maybe near Abbeville, where the seafood is quite good. If #91L can stay close enough to the coast, the rains could be significant. For now, the GFS/Euro/Canadian ensemble total rainfall in SETX is not too extreme. GFS mid 970s slowly rising as the system approaches Louisiana would probably be a Cat 1 hurricane. Euro is barely a TS, but going by Canadian, GFS and the ICON, a strong TS or minimal hurricane seems the most likely.

91L is still a mess, but a mess with storm tops approaching -90*C, it should organize if the convection stays with it.

Our parish had well over 12" of rain the past few days. Unfortunately, i dont think we can handle much more. I heard reports of water in homes in Houma. We still have ppl in fema trailers as well.

Landfall at New Iberia- Morgan City puts us on the dirty side. Hopefully it jets out of here quick.

I used to go to Cocodrie, passing Houma, to catch a boat to near shore rigs. The vacation homes in Cocodrie are like Galveston, built on poles, but there are businesses not elevated. I used to go out of Fourchon a lot, Bayou Lafourche is protected from Mississippi flooding by a control structure, but any rain falling downstream, it is coming into the bayou, and also coming up from the bay. I'm not sure how wave heights correlate exactly to surge, especially as influenced by terrain, but 10 foot waves just offshore can't be good.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon data being ingested later tonight will help a lot with the models.

[Ubuntwo]

The north half/ex-90L looks more potent than GFS expectations, I expect something closer to the Euro/CMC solution intensity-wise given this current structure.

[TomballEd]

The Vermillion River can flow backwards into Lafayette after heavy rains. I was never in LFT, in my almost 4 years there, for a TC, but elevated salt water levels in whatever that bay is called S of South Marsh Island and 8+ inches of rain, that could mean significant flooding. The GFS is probably not exactly right in track or intensity (definitely in the shrinking cluster of tracks, but stronger than the other globals) but this would be a bad scenario for Vermillion and Lafayette parishes.

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

Nice!!!...hey Gcane...any thoughts on what you feel that recon may discover out there?....

Probably not much.
I think this will consolidate tomorrow

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon in the air

Nice!!!...hey Gcane...any thoughts on what you feel that recon may discover out there?....

Probably not much.
I think this will consolidate tomorrow

Yeah I’m still seeing two separate areas of low level rotation on visible, I don’t think it’s likely this will be named today.

[TomballEd]

Recon just closed off one center, or at least very sharp trough. The remains of 90L. It may reach the stronger center soon, it looks close to where I'd guess the main circulation to be judging by satellite.

[Bimms]

I'm wondering about the impacts to the Houston Metro. I remember with Beryl, a lot of people on here were saying it was going to miss, but I kept saying it was going to be a direct hit, and it was. Starting to get similar vibes with this one if it develops. What are you thoughts?