ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track: Winds at 35kt.

AL, 91, 2024090812, , BEST, 0, 205N, 942W, 35, 1003, LO

[underthwx]

This is a quote from the morning forecast discussion, from Houston/Galveston NWS..."The weather Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday will be
dictated by the eventual track of a materializing area of low
pressure that is currently in the Bay of Campeche. The system
could very well become the next named tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season (see tropical discussion) as it moves northward, potentially along the Texas Coast. However, I want to focus on the word `potentially` in the previous sentence because there is no shortage of uncertainty regarding the system`s future track. This is due in large part to the low being in its formative stages. Track uncertainty will remain high until we are able to establish a more organized and coherent system. For anyone trying to make a rainfall forecast during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, this uncertainty is downright frustrating"......so....monitor...wait....stayy informed...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A ton of very deep convection firing off around 91L. These waters have essentially been untouched all summer, with record breaking SSTs.

IMHO, a hurricane is brewing, question is how strong. Nicholas is the closest analog, although I think this one will get more water time.

[Category5Kaiju]

A ton of very deep convection firing off around 91L. These waters have essentially been untouched all summer, with record breaking SSTs.

IMHO, a hurricane is brewing, question is how strong. Nicholas is the closest analog, although I think this one will get more water time.

https://i.imgur.com/ceoFadG.jpeg

I'd say a high end Cat 1 or a Cat 2 is the most likely outcome. While I don't think this will pull an Alicia or a Harvey, I'm trying to refrain making definitive statements like that at this point, because who knows?

[cycloneye]

Recon will go this afternoon and we will know if they find a TD, TS or not yet a cyclone.

[underthwx]

Recon will go this afternoon and we will know if they find a TD, TS or not yet a cyclone.

I would venture to guess they will begin PTC advisories?...this concludes my speculation....yall enjoy today!...

[wxman57]

Recon will go this afternoon and we will know if they find a TD, TS or not yet a cyclone.

Any TS wind today is due to cool air accelerating down the coast of Mexico rather than due to the developing circulation. Winds have been 35 kts along the MX coast for over 24 hours. Very common behind a front.

It'll be important to see where the center sets up over the next 24 hours. That will play a part in the eventual track. It appears that the storm will encounter increasing westerly winds aloft as it moves across the NW Gulf Tue-Wed. Initially, that could aid outflow and help it to strengthen. Eventually, though, it'll become shear and result in weakening. 12Z Consensus shifted west to Lake Charles area, but I think it's going to track east of there, possibly as far east as western Vermilion Bay. Models are almost always too far west in these setups.

TS wind could pass offshore Brownsville on Tuesday, maybe very near the coast. That would require the NHC to initiate PTC advisories today. Maybe they'll wait for recon reports, though.

[TomballEd]

This is a quote from the morning forecast discussion, from Houston/Galveston NWS..."The weather Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday will be
dictated by the eventual track of a materializing area of low
pressure that is currently in the Bay of Campeche. The system
could very well become the next named tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season (see tropical discussion) as it moves northward, potentially along the Texas Coast. However, I want to focus on the word `potentially` in the previous sentence because there is no shortage of uncertainty regarding the system`s future track. This is due in large part to the low being in its formative stages. Track uncertainty will remain high until we are able to establish a more organized and coherent system. For anyone trying to make a rainfall forecast during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, this uncertainty is downright frustrating"......so....monitor...wait....stayy informed...

Almost all ensemble mebers keep this offshore Texas and hit Louisiana, maybe near Abbeville, where the seafood is quite good. If #91L can stay close enough to the coast, the rains could be significant. For now, the GFS/Euro/Canadian ensemble total rainfall in SETX is not too extreme. GFS mid 970s slowly rising as the system approaches Louisiana would probably be a Cat 1 hurricane. Euro is barely a TS, but going by Canadian, GFS and the ICON, a strong TS or minimal hurricane seems the most likely.

91L is still a mess, but a mess with storm tops approaching -90*C, it should organize if the convection stays with it.

[MarioProtVI]

It has gales so it should go right to Francine when it forms. Maybe even today if recon finds a circulation.

[underthwx]

This is a quote from the morning forecast discussion, from Houston/Galveston NWS..."The weather Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday will be
dictated by the eventual track of a materializing area of low
pressure that is currently in the Bay of Campeche. The system
could very well become the next named tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season (see tropical discussion) as it moves northward, potentially along the Texas Coast. However, I want to focus on the word `potentially` in the previous sentence because there is no shortage of uncertainty regarding the system`s future track. This is due in large part to the low being in its formative stages. Track uncertainty will remain high until we are able to establish a more organized and coherent system. For anyone trying to make a rainfall forecast during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, this uncertainty is downright frustrating"......so....monitor...wait....stayy informed...

Almost all ensemble mebers keep this offshore Texas and hit Louisiana, maybe near Abbeville, where the seafood is quite good. If #91L can stay close enough to the coast, the rains could be significant. For now, the GFS/Euro/Canadian ensemble total rainfall in SETX is not too extreme. GFS mid 970s slowly rising as the system approaches Louisiana would probably be a Cat 1 hurricane. Euro is barely a TS, but going by Canadian, GFS and the ICON, a strong TS or minimal hurricane seems the most likely.

91L is still a mess, but a mess with storm tops approaching -90*C, it should organize if the convection stays with it.

It seems as if this low will have a great deal of influence on the weather in Louisiana unfortunately...in whatever form this system takes...or possibly even further east towards the Florida panhandle....then points north and east?....perhaps?...

[MONTEGUT_LA]

This is a quote from the morning forecast discussion, from Houston/Galveston NWS..."The weather Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday will be
dictated by the eventual track of a materializing area of low
pressure that is currently in the Bay of Campeche. The system
could very well become the next named tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season (see tropical discussion) as it moves northward, potentially along the Texas Coast. However, I want to focus on the word `potentially` in the previous sentence because there is no shortage of uncertainty regarding the system`s future track. This is due in large part to the low being in its formative stages. Track uncertainty will remain high until we are able to establish a more organized and coherent system. For anyone trying to make a rainfall forecast during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, this uncertainty is downright frustrating"......so....monitor...wait....stayy informed...

Almost all ensemble mebers keep this offshore Texas and hit Louisiana, maybe near Abbeville, where the seafood is quite good. If #91L can stay close enough to the coast, the rains could be significant. For now, the GFS/Euro/Canadian ensemble total rainfall in SETX is not too extreme. GFS mid 970s slowly rising as the system approaches Louisiana would probably be a Cat 1 hurricane. Euro is barely a TS, but going by Canadian, GFS and the ICON, a strong TS or minimal hurricane seems the most likely.

91L is still a mess, but a mess with storm tops approaching -90*C, it should organize if the convection stays with it.

Our parish had well over 12" of rain the past few days. Unfortunately, i dont think we can handle much more. I heard reports of water in homes in Houma. We still have ppl in fema trailers as well.

Landfall at New Iberia- Morgan City puts us on the dirty side. Hopefully it jets out of here quick.

[GCANE]

Going out on a limb and saying this could become a major.
Reasons I am not privy to say.

[wx98]

This is a quote from the morning forecast discussion, from Houston/Galveston NWS..."The weather Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday will be
dictated by the eventual track of a materializing area of low
pressure that is currently in the Bay of Campeche. The system
could very well become the next named tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season (see tropical discussion) as it moves northward, potentially along the Texas Coast. However, I want to focus on the word `potentially` in the previous sentence because there is no shortage of uncertainty regarding the system`s future track. This is due in large part to the low being in its formative stages. Track uncertainty will remain high until we are able to establish a more organized and coherent system. For anyone trying to make a rainfall forecast during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, this uncertainty is downright frustrating"......so....monitor...wait....stayy informed...

Almost all ensemble mebers keep this offshore Texas and hit Louisiana, maybe near Abbeville, where the seafood is quite good. If #91L can stay close enough to the coast, the rains could be significant. For now, the GFS/Euro/Canadian ensemble total rainfall in SETX is not too extreme. GFS mid 970s slowly rising as the system approaches Louisiana would probably be a Cat 1 hurricane. Euro is barely a TS, but going by Canadian, GFS and the ICON, a strong TS or minimal hurricane seems the most likely.

91L is still a mess, but a mess with storm tops approaching -90*C, it should organize if the convection stays with it.

It seems as if this low will have a great deal of influence on the weather in Louisiana unfortunately...in whatever form this system takes...or possibly even further east towards the Florida panhandle....then points north and east?....perhaps?...

Getting all the way to the panhandle would be a stretch. Louisiana is the best bet as of now looking at the models, meteorology, and geometry of it.

[wx98]

Going out on a limb and saying this could become a major.
Reasons I am not privy to say.

Wouldn’t be surprised. I think those forecasting a mid-grade tropical storm could be surprised.

[Steve]

Going out on a limb and saying this could become a major.
Reasons I am not privy to say.

Haha damnit G. Hook us up with a tease.

[EasyTiger]

Looks like somebody lit a match in the entire W GOM this morning. Lots of convection firing up

[GCANE]

Going out on a limb and saying this could become a major.
Reasons I am not privy to say.

Haha damnit G. Hook us up with a tease.

It's nothing conspiracy.
Just additional effects most people don't correlate TC intensification with.
So. I won't throw out the details.
Could also see some seismic activity in the area.
I'll leave it at that.

[loon]

Going out on a limb and saying this could become a major.
Reasons I am not privy to say.

Haha damnit G. Hook us up with a tease.

It's nothing conspiracy.
Just additional effects most people don't correlate TC intensification with.
So. I won't throw out the details.
Could also see some seismic activity in the area.
I'll leave it at that.

[underthwx]

Going out on a limb and saying this could become a major.
Reasons I am not privy to say.

Haha damnit G. Hook us up with a tease.

It's nothing conspiracy.
Just additional effects most people don't correlate TC intensification with.
So. I won't throw out the details.
Could also see some seismic activity in the area.
I'll leave it at that.

Bro.....you got my attention....talk about a cliff hanger....im curious...

[GCANE]

All that convection is conditioning the upper troposphere for a massive anticyclone which will be reinforced by the tail of the trof.
CIMSS is already showing the UL winds going in that direction and 200mb vort is clear.