ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Models are seeing the increased westerly shear as it moves into the northern Gulf early Wednesday. That should lead to weakening prior to moving ashore. I'm a little west of ICON, taking it inland just west of Vermilion Bay. May reach 45-50 kts Tuesday evening but may weaken to 35 kts at landfall.

[Steve]

That’s a better case.

QPF might be conservative if it comes in that weak.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1725762713

[Teban54]

Some more convection has started firing closer to where the X is.

[Sciencerocks]

[kassi]

Up to 70/80

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data indicate a broad area of low pressure is
located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico while
interacting with a frontal boundary. This system is forecast to
drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. Interests along
the western Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Craters]

Well, the 00Z GFS is feeling its oats: 976-mb hurricane into Vermilion Bay on Thursday morning.

[Teban54]

Seems like there's a pattern with these systems that go over the Yucatan, either with depressions or formative systems, where they lose all their convection and look like they'll be unable to develop--but a vigorous swirl still remains and then blow up about 12-24 hours after clearing land

Given we'll be in Dmax by that point, that will more than likely aide in that process

Looks like this is happening. Convection has almost covered the LLC now, though just barely (and seems to have poofed a bit over the center in the last hour). Meanwhile, ex-90L has lost its convection and become elongated drifting south.

[GCANE]

GFS run to run is showing a strengthening ARWB prior to landfall.
This is a significant indication that the forecast trend for a strong TC is increasing in odds.

[Stratton23]

Upper level and Mid level shear are currently very hostile in the northern gulf, it may relax some, but im still not on board yet with a stronger system ( hurricane) , dry air is also plentiful over texas, IMO the ceiling for this is maybe a 70 mph TS right now

[Nimbus]

Wind is out of the NNE at 42002 and out of the east at 42001 at the surface so as the NHC stated its a broad low level circulation. If these two area merge sooner than expected I could see a hurricane as the models are forecasting rather than a sloppy wet Fuji with multiple "landfalls".

[ChrisH-UK]

Well 91L future depends on how quickly it can merge with 90L and how much of it ends in the East Pacific forming a storm there as well as copping with the shear.

GOES-16 Cloud Phase + Snow/Cloud - https://col.st/ptdVI

[Frank P]

looks to me per that sat loop like the elongated center of 90L is being sucked down into 91L and the merger process is underway..

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward
during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or
along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the
week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should
closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be
required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or
tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also
scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1832748782305345905

[xironman]

42055 in the BOC has switched to NE, have to see if it lasts.

2024-09-08 07:20 am NNE 7.8
2024-09-08 07:10 am NNE 9.7
2024-09-08 07:00 am NE 9.7
2024-09-08 06:50 am NE 7.8
2024-09-08 06:40 am ENE 7.8
2024-09-08 06:30 am ENE 7.8

[Frank P]

Watching the latest IR loops it looks to me like the convection associated with former 90L is being sucked down towards 91L this morning.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Reminds me somewhat of Hurricane Nicholas.

[3090]

For an evolving tropical system so close it is very quiet in here. Where are all the posters?

It looks like 91L is starting to get its act together somewhat. Will be interesting to see how the models react and forecast track changes today. Right now the forecast tracks appear to have shifted east some but not by much. It looks like the Vermillion bay area is currently the odds on favorite for a landfall. We shall see.

[Steve]

looks to me per that sat loop like the elongated center of 90L is being sucked down into 91L and the merger process is underway..

Check the visible. Its still pretty circular.

[Frank P]

looks to me per that sat loop like the elongated center of 90L is being sucked down into 91L and the merger process is underway..

Check the visible. Its still pretty circular.

Yeah I can see it better with the vis, still rotating. thx