ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[3090]

Should be fun to see the low level centers interact. 90l is coming south to say what’s up. Complicated patterns can be somewhat unpredictable but also take time to resolve. Whether we get a couple centers rotating around a broader low pressure or a merge or even if one ingested the other, we’ll see in a couple of days. I also like Wx57’s ideas of a slightly east of Lake Charles/Cameron landfall as a midgrade TS. Anywhere from Chambers/Jefferson Counties over to Vermilion or St. Mary Parishes seems most likely. Slower and farther east could (should?) be stronger.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Ex 90L will have zero impact on 91L in due time.

Maybe. But it’s the more pronounced circulation as of now. You tell me

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0718&fh=54

Now is one thing. Not in the next 5-6 days. Low shear environment upcoming. The now center or whatever of 90L will be a non factor.

[underthwx]

Early hurricane models show Lake Charles and one of four show nothing of significance into the Tex/Mex border.

Looks like the GFS shifted a tad east at 12z compared to 06z. Bringing it in around Lake Charles. 12z ECMWF is more substantial this run and comes in around Port Arthur on Wednesday night.

12Z GFS puts the low down quite close to the Mexican coast for the Lake Charles landfall track.
I'll put this run on the scorecard for later though.

A day or so ago....after reading discussions from NWS and NHC....I was thinking that anything that develops from this system.....would be pushed way east because of the proximity of the front?...

[Steve]

Ex 90L will have zero impact on 91L in due time.

Maybe. But it’s the more pronounced circulation as of now. You tell me

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0718&fh=54

Now is one thing. Not in the next 5-6 days. Low shear environment upcoming. The now center or whatever of 90L will be a non factor.

It’ll be inland before 5 days if ICON is right. Just under 5 if GFS is right. I don’t really care what center ends up dominant because those models bring 90L down, pick up the energy from 91L, and the whole thing reorganizes into a tropical storm. It’s all there in the models. They just aren’t at a high enough resolution to decipher the merger process. Maybe ensemble vorts on GFS will, but I haven’t looked at that yet.

[Steve]

GEPS not that much help but here you go (rewind and press play obviously)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=126

[Frank P]

Not very impressive at the moment but at least it looks like its on the move... provided that swirl to the east of the convection is the broad center...

[Frank P]

Is it possible for the LLC to develop more to the west just off the coast where all the convection is currently firing up, and the swirl to the NE just washes out?

[tropicwatch]

Currently the lowest pressures are along the western side of Yucatan and near Ciudad Del Carmen, 1004mb.

[Frank P]

Looks like to me the LLC is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

[Nimbus]

Looks like to me the LLC will is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

[LadyBug72]

Looks like to me the LLC will is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

Would that do much to where the storm would make landfall? This is so interesting to me. Thank you for your time.

[Hammy]

Looks like to me the LLC will is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

Seems like this is what's actually forecast by the latest GFS

I've also traced the low cloud motion--the yellow is my best guess as to what's under the obscuring canopy, but it looks like we have either a still-slightly east displaced center, or an elongated one that will consolidate once the convection builds and it merges with the one off of Texas.

[Frank P]

Looks like to me the LLC will is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

Watch the latest vis sat loop as the system formally known as INVEST 90L starts to drive south towards the BOC... strange times indeed this season.

[Steve]

Really good Saturday summary on weatherbell today that just came out. All but the last 3 minutes are tropics. Joe draws the evolution of the llc’s and the Fujiwara that brings them together. He then notes the next system heading for NC and possibly New England. He put out new numbers for the rest of the season and explains why he thinks there’s been the lull since Ernesto. There’s a thread on Talkin that I haven’t even read because it’s obvious there’s just too much sinking air in the Atlantic and the wrong phases of MJO. He shows why he was wrong as to the season as a whole, thinks some of it is climate change distortion, and how the pattern will get back to what everyone thought in the 15-40 day range. For 90L he thinks it hits as a hurricane between Matagorda Bay and SC LA coast on Thursday. Worth anyone’s time to watch.

[Craters]

Looks like to me the LLC will is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

Watch the latest vis sat loop as the system formally known as INVEST 90L starts to drive south towards the BOC... strange times indeed this season.
https://i.ibb.co/cYXtjFJ/69596768.gif

Those real-time contrails forming over the open Gulf to the north of the CoC are amazing!

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure has formed over the Bay of Campeche and is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to drift slowly northward for a couple of days while it
interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and
Texas Gulf coastline. Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[REDHurricane]

What does everyone think the odds are of future Francine rapidly intensifying into a MH before landfall? Latest model runs are forecasting a strong TS/weak hurricane making landfall in around 100ish hours, so sometime late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning seems probable. ICON and ECMWF show 91L and former 90L consolidating into one low pressure center in approximately 48 hours, whereas GFS has the consolidation occurring ~12 hours after that, giving it an estimated 2 days or so as a single system over the boiling Gulf waters.

[Nimbus]

Looks like to me the LLC will is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

Watch the latest vis sat loop as the system formally known as INVEST 90L starts to drive south towards the BOC... strange times indeed this season.
https://i.ibb.co/cYXtjFJ/69596768.gif

Surface pressure with 90L is actually lower
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

[tropicwatch]

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Steve]

What does everyone think the odds are of future Francine rapidly intensifying into a MH before landfall? Latest model runs are forecasting a strong TS/weak hurricane making landfall in around 100ish hours, so sometime late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning seems probable. ICON and ECMWF show 91L and former 90L consolidating into one low pressure center in approximately 48 hours, whereas GFS has the consolidation occurring ~12 hours after that, giving it an estimated 2 days or so as a single system over the boiling Gulf waters.

I don’t think it will be a major. If we were in phases 2 or 3 of the MJO maybe. But we are back in the circle for a few days. Cat 2 would be my absolute ceiling with TS most likely then Cat 1.

[Nimbus]

Looks like to me the LLC will is somewhere under the convection building off the coast on the west flank of this system.

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

Would that do much to where the storm would make landfall? This is so interesting to me. Thank you for your time.

Two storm centers of equal strength dancing around each other would inhibit development but increase precipitation totals for a larger area, probably entire gulf coast east of Texas.