ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Tailgater33]

Conditions at 42002 as of
(2:40 pm CDT)
1940 GMT on 09/06/2024:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
5-day plot - Average Wave Period Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSW ( 195 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.1 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 20 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
1007.5 mb

[Sciencerocks]

I'd name it based on it 1. having a closed LLC, 2. 35knt ascat winds and 3. sustain convection. The nhc should have this at 80% right now at a minimum considering the above. The single largest argument against upgrading is the LLC is a little bit elongated but I've seen plenty of systems like this get upgraded in the past and secondly maybe the sheared convection but again the same were also upgraded many of times in the past....

This deserves a little bit more respect considering how close to the coast it is.

[Teban54]

I'd name it based on it 1. having a closed LLC, 2. 35knt ascat winds and 3. sustain convection. The nhc should have this at 80% right now at a minimum considering the above. The single largest argument against upgrading is the LLC is a little bit elongated but I've seen plenty of systems like this get upgraded in the past and secondly maybe the sheared convection but again the same were also upgraded many of times in the past....

This deserves a little bit more respect considering how close to the coast it is.

In addition to many systems getting a designation in a state like this, there are also many, many more systems that were in a state like this after weakening from a peak earlier, but retained their status as a TC.

[MGC]

I'm old school. I don't think 90L is a TC, circulation a bit too broad and lack of organized convection. I'm tired of disturbances getting upgraded when one thunderstorm is near the center......MGC

[NDG]

I'd name it based on it 1. having a closed LLC, 2. 35knt ascat winds and 3. sustain convection. The nhc should have this at 80% right now at a minimum considering the above. The single largest argument against upgrading is the LLC is a little bit elongated but I've seen plenty of systems like this get upgraded in the past and secondly maybe the sheared convection but again the same were also upgraded many of times in the past....

This deserves a little bit more respect considering how close to the coast it is.

I only see 30 knots on the latest ASCAT well east of the CoC , the same ASCAT shows its eastern circulation very frontal like.

[Ubuntwo]

I'd name it based on it 1. having a closed LLC, 2. 35knt ascat winds and 3. sustain convection. The nhc should have this at 80% right now at a minimum considering the above. The single largest argument against upgrading is the LLC is a little bit elongated but I've seen plenty of systems like this get upgraded in the past and secondly maybe the sheared convection but again the same were also upgraded many of times in the past....

This deserves a little bit more respect considering how close to the coast it is.

I only see 30 knots on the latest ASCAT well east of the CoC , the same ASCAT shows its eastern circulation very frontal like.

https://i.imgur.com/GBI3nkY.jpeg

The ASCAT pass prior had a 35 knot barb, which is why the NHC went up to 35 for the 18z update. To be fair, the same pass showed the circulation beginning to deteriorate as a result of frontal interaction. You can find it earlier in this thread.

[Drewsey]

I was already out of power for a week in Houston from Beryl. Please do not hit Houston

It happens. I was out of power for 28 days after Ida

[Tailgater33]

Down to 1006.5 mb east of Brownsville, looks like a elongated circulation
Watching the area near 26 N 95W

[Stormcenter]

What is wrong with the GFS model? I mean every
run is totally different. I wouldn’t trust it for nothing
this season.

[Stratton23]

Stormcenter we dont have a defined center to track, nothing is wrong with the GFS lol

[jasons2k]

I think it fit the criteria for a TD/STC for about 24 hours.

I’m north of Houston and it’s still very tropical-like outside here until tonight’s front arrives. Been breezy out of the northeast, but still very humid and a sky full of those white puffy tropical clouds building into passing rain bands.

My dew point temp is still 75 degrees and I have had a persistent stiff NE wind for a couple of days now. That just doesn’t happen here unless there is a tropical low in the Gulf.

What you see on paper from afar doesn’t always tell the whole story.

[wxman57]

Kind of strange that the chances were brought down?

NHC forecasters are focusing on the wave now crossing the Yucatan, though it's really a combination of the two disturbances that will spin up in the SW Gulf Sunday. There's not much of a circulation left with 90L tonight.

[wxman57]

I think it fit the criteria for a TD/STC for about 24 hours.

I’m north of Houston and it’s still very tropical-like outside here until tonight’s front arrives. Been breezy out of the northeast, but still very humid and a sky full of those white puffy tropical clouds building into passing rain bands.

My dew point temp is still 75 degrees and I have had a persistent stiff NE wind for a couple of days now. That just doesn’t happen here unless there is a tropical low in the Gulf.

What you see on paper from afar doesn’t always tell the whole story.

The leading edge of drier air has reached Bush Airport now. Dewpoints in the 60s just north of Conroe. It's not a sharp frontal boundary at all. Cooler and drier air will spill south across Houston area tonight.

[Steve]

Stormcenter we dont have a defined center to track, nothing is wrong with the GFS lol

Stratton23 True but that’s more important with hurricane models and future tracks of waves far out. It has missed this setup for 2 weeks and continues to deviate from run to run. It mostly gets an F for this pattern over the last 2 weeks. Several other models have anticipated what had transpired.

[jasons2k]

I think it fit the criteria for a TD/STC for about 24 hours.

I’m north of Houston and it’s still very tropical-like outside here until tonight’s front arrives. Been breezy out of the northeast, but still very humid and a sky full of those white puffy tropical clouds building into passing rain bands.

My dew point temp is still 75 degrees and I have had a persistent stiff NE wind for a couple of days now. That just doesn’t happen here unless there is a tropical low in the Gulf.

What you see on paper from afar doesn’t always tell the whole story.

The leading edge of drier air has reached Bush Airport now. Dewpoints in the 60s just north of Conroe. It's not a sharp frontal boundary at all. Cooler and drier air will spill south across Houston area tonight.

Yeah, it blew threw here right about the time I typed that up. It was enough to tell the difference. Winds definitely picked-up and you could feel the moisture scouring out. The sky looked different not too long afterwards and the pressure starting rising on the barometer.

[wxman57]

I have a preliminary track based mostly on the ICON. Landfall near Beaumont around mid morning Wednesday as a 45-50kt TS. Dry air on west side should limit Houston impact of wind and precip. I'm discounting the consensus for now as I think they are influenced too much by the GFS and its variants that take it into Mexico. This won't likely be 90L, as the NHC is focusing on the wave over the Yucatan. They may designate it 91L to be in line with their forecast of development.

[Ptarmigan]

Kind of strange that the chances were brought down?

NHC forecasters are focusing on the wave now crossing the Yucatan, though it's really a combination of the two disturbances that will spin up in the SW Gulf Sunday. There's not much of a circulation left with 90L tonight.

I wonder if the tropical wave over Yucatan will be tagged as an Invest.

[Stratton23]

2 am update is up to 40% in 2 days/60% in 5 days, this is likely going to become francine

[Cpv17]

2 am update is up to 40% in 2 days/60% in 5 days, this is likely going to become francine

Looks like Nicholas from the 2021 season. Lots of rain headed towards the Golden Triangle and southern LA. Houston might be on the edge of it.

[wxman57]

Kind of strange that the chances were brought down?

NHC forecasters are focusing on the wave now crossing the Yucatan, though it's really a combination of the two disturbances that will spin up in the SW Gulf Sunday. There's not much of a circulation left with 90L tonight.

I wonder if the tropical wave over Yucatan will be tagged as an Invest.

I'm sure that's what the NHC plans to do, since they killed off Invest 90L overnight.