ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

[wxman57]

I plotted he consensus (TVCN - Green) and corrected consensus (TVCC - maroon). Both take it south then back into Texas at 7am next Wednesday. There's definitely a closed low out there. In the past, the NHC would have recon out there finding 35kt winds somewhere and named it. Perhaps this is a sign of a new operating procedure from the new NHC director? That's what my coworker thinks. I'd say development chances are a lot higher than 10% or 20%, but much will depend on how the increased shear and dry air intrusion impact it over the weekend.

https://wxman57.com/images/90LConsensus.JPG

[Stratton23]

Heavy rain looks like a pretty good bet for south texas, central and se texas and into lousiana, it wont really matter too much if this tracks into northern mexico because a trough over west texas is going to pull the moisture right into the texas coast line and eventually turn our system to the NNE, as seen on the GFS and CMC, as of now id say a 50-60 mph TS seems like a decent bet, id just prepare for a lot of rain in the tuesday- friday time frame

CMC stalls in south texas and has multiple rounds of energy rotating up the coast into central and se texas, thats a setup for a big flooding event

[Horn1991]

I plotted he consensus (TVCN - Green) and corrected consensus (TVCC - maroon). Both take it south then back into Texas at 7am next Wednesday. There's definitely a closed low out there. In the past, the NHC would have recon out there finding 35kt winds somewhere and named it. Perhaps this is a sign of a new operating procedure from the new NHC director?

I've been wondering this myself.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-B.

[Stratton23]

12z EPS is locked in on texas

[Ubuntwo]

12z EPS is locked in on texas

I count just under 40% of members developing in the Gulf. Yeah, most go towards Texas. While some are mostly from the tropical wave over the Yucatan, many members are clearly just this low 'developing' after frontal passage, so I disagree with a drop to 0% (at least from an ensemble support perspective).

[NDG]

Whoever thought this low pressure had a good chance to develop the last couple of days need to give more credit to the GFS/Euro and less credit to the HR Regional Models and ICON.
The global models were correct in shear coming down to shear the heck of it in the mid and upper levels. 30-50 knots of shear over it now making look like a frontal boundary.

[NDG]

HAFS-B.

https://i.imgur.com/uoUv4Um.png

Something is wrong with that hurricane model, it exaggerates the IR Satellite forecast. Not sure Andy ever answered why it has been doing that.

[Stratton23]

NDG it goes both ways, while the GFS/ Euro did see the shear, the ICON also suggested that this low was going to linger around all week, the GFS/ Euro had to play catch up to the ICON on that

[HurricaneBrain]

ICON was the first to forecast a closed off low, which it had predicted 10 days ago and stuck with run after run. Euro and GFS didn't show a closed off low until it already closed off.

Whoever thought this low pressure had a good chance to develop the last couple of days need to give more credit to the GFS/Euro and less credit to the HR Regional Models and ICON.
The global models were correct in shear coming down to shear the heck of it in the mid and upper levels. 30-50 knots of shear over it now making look like a frontal boundary.

https://i.imgur.com/x2xq90R.jpg

[NDG]

NDG it goes both ways, while the GFS/ Euro did see the shear, the ICON also suggested that this low was going to linger around all week, the GFS/ Euro had to play catch up to the ICON on that

Maybe it got lucky. 7 days ago it had a moderate to strong TS making landfall in SW LA for yesterday afternoon.
Going back 10 days ago the model only goes out to 7.5 days.

[Ptarmigan]

HAFS-B.

https://i.imgur.com/uoUv4Um.png

Looks rather ominous if it panned out.

[Steve]

Whoever thought this low pressure had a good chance to develop the last couple of days need to give more credit to the GFS/Euro and less credit to the HR Regional Models and ICON.
The global models were correct in shear coming down to shear the heck of it in the mid and upper levels. 30-50 knots of shear over it now making look like a frontal boundary.

https://i.imgur.com/x2xq90R.jpg

Not buying in even 5%. We all knew that. They had sporadic rain in an otherwise disturbed Gulf. No lows except an occasional run. Might want to go back and run the models you’re discounting at 500. Low center would move south and come back up.

[Steve]

NDG it goes both ways, while the GFS/ Euro did see the shear, the ICON also suggested that this low was going to linger around all week, the GFS/ Euro had to play catch up to the ICON on that

Maybe it got lucky. 7 days ago it had a moderate to strong TS making landfall in SW LA for yesterday afternoon.
Going back 10 days ago the model only goes out to 7.5 days.

2 week heads up in where the low would be. Missed intensity but had the right setup. It’s all there in the talking tropics 8 page thread. Mid level energy peeled off and rained in SW LA.