WPAC: YAGI - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

12W YAGI 240905 0000 19.0N 115.8E WPAC 140 916

[doomhaMwx]

916 mb recorded by the buoy in the eye. Wow!

 https://x.com/doomhaMwx/status/1831949332666626497


 https://x.com/FansOfStorms/status/1831957108298019304

[doomhaMwx]

The Quizhou Islands are now partially in the eye as per satellite and radar. Landfall will occur over "Mainland" Hainan any moment now.

[Hayabusa]

A 05/2245Z SMAP pass reveals a converted 134 kt 1 min winds, maybe the 06/00z fix needs also be adjusted? (currently 130 kts)

WP, 12, 202409052245, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1920N, 11220E, , 1, 125, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 12, 202409052245, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1920N, 11220E, , 1, 125, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 128, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 12, 202409052245, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1920N, 11220E, , 1, 125, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 74, 75, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[mrbagyo]

LANDFALL!

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/yangyubin1998/status/1831978696925966730

[doomhaMwx]

 https://x.com/cmanewsinfocus/status/1831977654649803103

[kevin]

A blend of the 6 intensity estimates gives a landfall intensity of 922 mb, 125 kt. This is fairly in-line with JTWC's landfall intensity of 928 mb, 125 kt. Based on the 922 mb measurement made on the ground the 922 mb estimate is more accurate and the true landfall pressure might've even been a bit lower around 920 mb. Either way, China doesn't often see a direct cat 4 landfall. Yagi is the most intense landfall in China since Rammasun in 2014.

[doomhaMwx]

921.7 mb was the actual minimum.

 https://x.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1831991840863625273

[mrbagyo]

Haikou - 928 hPa
ZJHK 061100Z 01003MPS 3000 R09///// R10/P2000 SHRA SCT010 SCT026CB SCT026 25/25 Q0928 BECMG TL1200 25020G35MPS 1000 +SHRA

[shah83]

HAFS-A is predicting an extremely severe Vietnam landfall with major impacts on Hanoi.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://x.com/That_WeatherGuy/status/1832020084048425389

[doomhaMwx]

Eye currently directly passing over the weather radar site in Haikou City!

[kevin]

Haikou City measured an hourly pressure at 7:00PM of 27.33 in -> 925.5 mb (https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/haikou/ZJHK).

[MarioProtVI]

12W YAGI 240905 0000 19.0N 115.8E WPAC 140 916

Only the fourth in the SCS after Pamela ‘54, Rammasun ‘14 and Rai ‘21. This feels like the WPac’s version of Beryl this year. Pretty wild.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If the 140 kt estimate was before the first EWRC ended, the second peak may have even been stronger.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/That_WeatherGuy/status/1832052312556146887

[mrbagyo]

Gulf of Tonkin is plenty warm so Yagi might regain some of its convective juice.
The gulf is also a relatively shallow body of water so If this typhoon moves to just south of the Red River Delta, we would be looking at a potential historic storm surge event in a populated area.

[Zonacane]

Gulf of Tonkin is plenty warm so Yagi might regain some of its convective juice.
The gulf is also a relatively shallow body of water so If this typhoon moves to just south of the Red River Delta, we would be looking at a potential historic storm surge event in a populated area.
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/S1Ivj.png

I was just going to mention this, any southward deviations would lead to catastrophic storm surge in the Red Delta and major typhoon impacts for the city of Hanoi. Hopefully this misses to the north

[CrazyC83]

There's been some pretty good measurements that can provide good estimates for the intensity. The Hong Kong recon supported 926 mb during the first ERC, and the buoy reading supporting 914 mb plus the landfall pressure data (I heard a school had a 922 reading, but wasn't sure the surface winds at the time).

The peak intensity I think was 145 kt (1-min) at 0300Z (non-synoptic time), at the time of the buoy reading of 916/20. Landfall (at about 0715Z) I would estimate at 140 kt with a pressure of 920 mb.