Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[GCANE]

Last 3hrs showing a good improvement in the LL vort
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[texsn95]

Horn Mountain, MC127, reel lay vessel, I need to be there before they hang the riser

Winds and squalls not that bad in Mississippi Canyon, but weather will deteriorate tomorrow afternoon/evening. Platforms in Eugene Island and Garden Banks reporting gusts 35-40 kts.

I started as a marine forecaster for the Gulf in May of 1980. By December, I was sent off to a jack-up platform off the southern tip of Argentina for 28 day rotations.

Roger that, thanks for the info, hopefully can get out there today.

[Frank P]

base velocity image

[cycloneye]

I think NHC may have to tag this area as 90L.

[Frank P]

looks very close to being a TD

[GCANE]

Looks like the main feed is a ridge of 5500 CAPE air to the SE

[Tailgater33]

Conditions at 42019 as of
(8:40 am CDT)
1340 GMT on 09/05/2024:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 270 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 20 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[GCANE]

Appears to be setting up for a significant surge of high TPW EPAC air thru the IoT

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

Already has a feeder band setup over the TPW feed and high CAPE ridge.
Seeing low-level Lift-Index at -8.
This may go ballistic

[wxman57]

HRRR has the low merging with the cold front tomorrow night and passing south of the mouth of the MS as a 35 kt west Gulf low Saturday morning. Clearly frontal by then.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1831330796621447345

[GCANE]

Same date, same spot where Harvey went from TD to Cat 4 in 40 hrs

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Wonderful, I'm in Houma this morning and supposed to fly offshore around noon today...

At work on houma's eastside, we got light rain right now, but water in some places are starting to rise. I execpt the city to have street flooding by lunch time. It doesnt take much in houma. South of houma should fair better.

[wxman57]

The difference between now and Harvey is the upper trof digging into the NW Gulf tomorrow, imparting increasing wind shear with dry air spilling offshore. Almost a classic West Gulf Low developing. It starts tropical then goes frontal by late tomorrow.

[Tailgater33]

Wxman 57 would say you this is a TD at this point?

[GCANE]

The difference between now and Harvey is the upper trof digging into the NW Gulf tomorrow, imparting increasing wind shear with dry air spilling offshore. Almost a classic West Gulf Low developing. It starts tropical then goes frontal by late tomorrow.

Trof not digging that deep into the GOM. Anti-cyclone will be on the SE side of the tip of the trof. If the LL Vort gets into that anti-cyclone, I don't need to tell what will happen.

[wxman57]

The difference between now and Harvey is the upper trof digging into the NW Gulf tomorrow, imparting increasing wind shear with dry air spilling offshore. Almost a classic West Gulf Low developing. It starts tropical then goes frontal by late tomorrow.

Trof not digging that deep into the GOM. Anti-cyclone will be on the SE side of the tip of the trof. If the LL Vort gets into that anti-cyclone, I don't need to tell what will happen.

Sure looks like the trof is digging pretty far into the Gulf by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Significantly increased shear and lots of dry air flowing offshore.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090506/gfs_uv250_scus_36.png

[wxman57]

Wxman 57 would say you this is a TD at this point?

Hard to confirm without more obs, but it certainly looks like a circulation is present. Such lows were classified as tropical storms in the past. I do think it will become frontal by 36 hrs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC bump up development chances considerably by 18Z.

[Frank P]

I've seen many systems classified at this point. Regardless, convection expanding and pulling moisture from the southern GOM and BOC while looking like it wants to make a go at it..

[LarryWx]

Wxman 57 would say you this is a TD at this point?

Hard to confirm without more obs, but it certainly looks like a circulation is present. Such lows were classified as tropical storms in the past. I do think it will become frontal by 36 hrs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC bump up development chances considerably by 18Z.

Kudos to the ICON. No other model has even been close as far as consistently showing a closed surface low getting going around now in the NW Gulf. Folks can see it for themselves by looking at old runs going back many days right now at TT.