Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[Steve]

Looks like NWS has SELA in the 4-6. They’re figuring some of the NW Gulf moisture interacts with the front through Friday. Kind of a weird Gulf low considering it’s been around as long as it has. Maybe it gets picked up or maybe that’s just some energy and the overall system moves south or stays stationary. Models are split but they send rain to LA, MS and AL in the near term.

https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[Frank P]

Looks like NWS has SELA in the 4-6. They’re figuring some of the NW Gulf moisture interacts with the front through Friday. Kind of a weird Gulf low considering it’s been around as long as it has. Maybe it gets picked up or maybe that’s just some energy and the overall system moves south or stays stationary. Models are split but they send rain to LA, MS and AL in the near term.

https://www.weather.gov/lix/

Looking at the latest radar loop images and vis sat loops I see a very tiny hint of a possible broad low trying to form in the NW GOM east of the TX coast. However, buoys are not falling at this time to support. It has support from the latest HRRR and NAM Models. Or chalk the whole post up to boredom with wanting something to track. Anyhoo, change my mind.

[Stormcenter]

NW Gulf looking more and more suspicious.

[Stratton23]

18z NAM 3k casually dropping 3 feet of rain on the east side of houston

[Frank P]

NW Gulf looking more and more suspicious.

I do believe someone is going to get some serious rain out of this blob. Side note: 81z HRRR has a low of 997 mb heading towards the north GOM for what little it might be worth.

[Frank P]

It's all a moot point as the approaching cool front along with the blistering wind shear will obliterate this system in the next day or so..

[Steve]

It's all a moot point as the approaching cool front along with the blistering wind shear will obliterate this system in the next day or so..

Some globals have it decapitated. Some drop it down southward and merge with the Yucatán wave.

?

[Stratton23]

The models seem to split the energy, our piece near the texad coast looks to get pushed south by the front, but that energy could also play a role in aiding our caribbean wave to develop, we will see

[Craters]

It's all a moot point as the approaching cool front along with the blistering wind shear will obliterate this system in the next day or so..

I don't think that the front is due to be out over the Gulf until Sunday afternoon...

[Steve]

It's all a moot point as the approaching cool front along with the blistering wind shear will obliterate this system in the next day or so..

I don't think that the front is due to be out over the Gulf until Sunday afternoon...

I’m thinking Saturday midday on. Otherwise right but if low pressure at all consolidates to the sw of the front it’s probably still going to be hanging around the Gulf after that at least a couple days if not more unless it was to move into Mexico or Texas. Chances are the front is going to grab some juice because there is a lot of moisture to work with. It’s raining in New Orleans now which it has been off and on all day. I watched several bands of low clouds with rain move in from the SE all day at the office. So some is going to peel off throughout the next 36 hours or so as the Canadian trough follows the mid America one. We’ll see what the 00z models say but at 18 the mesoscales icon and EC say watch off the Texas coast for the next few days. For now off SE TX but 3 days or so if nothing is consolidated there look to the Bay. Whether there ends up being multiple lows at whatever level or merging energy to form a main low south has to play out. But bank on a continued disturbed and unstable Gulf for the next week.

[Frank P]

It's all a moot point as the approaching cool front along with the blistering wind shear will obliterate this system in the next day or so..

I don't think that the front is due to be out over the Gulf until Sunday afternoon...

Yeah, my bad I should have said next 3-4 days.

[Teban54]

I'm just amazed we're still getting almost a full page of comments in a day for a 0/0 system, with Storm2K server issues to boot

[Frank P]

I'm just amazed we're still getting almost a full page of comments in a day for a 0/0 system, with Storm2K server issues to boot

Well it's been a long time since we’ve had a storm to track in the GOM, and now during the peak of the season there is still nothing anywhere per se. Hard on the weather enthusiasts like us on S2K.

[cajungal]

We are bored!

[Steve]

I'm just amazed we're still getting almost a full page of comments in a day for a 0/0 system, with Storm2K server issues to boot

It’s been a unique system from anything I can remember august or early September. On the one hand we knew mjo wasn’t right for anything crazy and models signaled that a week ago except to look off the Tx Coast. As 57 said multiple times we see gulf lows in the winter. But those don’t just spin around for a week or more. It’s kind of semi tropical without the winds. A few days ago we were under a band. Then a couple days of not much rain until today which had waves of rain. And we still have a chance to get a tropica storm this weekend or early next week which would be kind of cool. So unless everything poofs and the pattern changes, hopefully there will be a page worth reading every day.

[Teban54]

I'm just amazed we're still getting almost a full page of comments in a day for a 0/0 system, with Storm2K server issues to boot

It’s been a unique system from anything I can remember august or early September. On the one hand we knew mjo wasn’t right for anything crazy and models signaled that a week ago except to look off the Tx Coast. As 57 said multiple times we see gulf lows in the winter. But those don’t just spin around for a week or more. It’s kind of semi tropical without the winds. A few days ago we were under a band. Then a couple days of not much rain until today which had waves of rain. And we still have a chance to get a tropica storm this weekend or early next week which would be kind of cool. So unless everything poofs and the pattern changes, hopefully there will be a page worth reading every day.

ICON correctly showed a stalling low way in advance (7-10 days out IIRC), even if it was often too aggressive with it.

Edit: My bad, forgot that ICON only goes out to 180 hrs.

[Craters]

I'm just amazed we're still getting almost a full page of comments in a day for a 0/0 system, with Storm2K server issues to boot

It’s been a unique system from anything I can remember august or early September. On the one hand we knew mjo wasn’t right for anything crazy and models signaled that a week ago except to look off the Tx Coast. As 57 said multiple times we see gulf lows in the winter. But those don’t just spin around for a week or more. It’s kind of semi tropical without the winds. A few days ago we were under a band. Then a couple days of not much rain until today which had waves of rain. And we still have a chance to get a tropica storm this weekend or early next week which would be kind of cool. So unless everything poofs and the pattern changes, hopefully there will be a page worth reading every day.

ICON correctly showed a stalling low way in advance (7-10 days out IIRC), even if it was often too aggressive with it.

Yep. Given its performance last year and this season, the ICON is really going to have to mess up in a spectacular way a few times before I discount it anymore. I just wish they'd fix that strange rainfall cutoff at the coastlines...

[Steve]

Word. That’s been my take on ICON as well. Since I’ve only been following it a couple of years I’m trying to find where it succeeds and where it has flaws or overreacts. This year it’s been aggressive but also out front as far as disturbed weather in the NW Gulf. Part of that is due to it being adamant about systems that ended up being in the vicinity with this and Beryl. It will take a few seasons to know if it’s blind squirrel **** or possibly a legit signal even if intensity might sometimes have to be tamped down. For now the 00z wants to send a low down to Brownsville at 54 hours - edit that it’s actually heading for the BOC again. If the Euro is in again it would be the beryl alliance tag team.

[Steve]

Coming back north at 102 hours (4+ days) at 1004 which my guess is it will lower toward 990’s after that.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 500&fh=102

[Tailgater33]

Mesoscale models certainly seam to to be locking in a low forming in the NW gulf but they shoot it NE unlike the ICON
good guess Steve 989mb
I think they destroyed the Insurance building in Lake Charles damaged by Laura today