WPAC: YAGI - Post-Tropical

[kevin]

Based on a blend of ADT, AiDT and DPRINT I'd put the current intensity at 945 mb, 100 kt. It already has the look of a cat 4, just a matter of time before satellite images stabalize long enough & winds mix down and then ADT will also support it. Using this intensity would make the current ERI of Yagi one of the fastest of the year, 50 kt over the last 24 hours (just below Beryl).

[REDHurricane]

It seemed about time for the northern hemisphere to produce a real monster or two, all that energy has to go somewhere

[cycloneye]

Up to cat 3.

12W YAGI 240904 1200 19.2N 116.9E WPAC 110 968

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yagi looks to be on the wrong side of the Philippines. This isn't exactly a common sight.

We may wake up to a category 5.

[WaveBreaking]

[WaveBreaking]

Polygonal eye currently. Mesovorticies will start mixing higher winds soon.

[mrbagyo]

HKO reportedly flew a recon mission to Yagi though it didn't penetrate the eye
https://weibo.com/5644859481/Ovtd79GDb

Surface Observation from Pratas Island (Dongsha)



Haikou radar (460km)

[Kingarabian]

Easily a cat.4 now. Will need a few more hours before it can get to cat.5.

[WaveBreaking]

[Cantdecideanalias]

HKO reportedly flew a recon mission to Yagi though it didn't penetrate the eye
Surface Observation from Pratas Island (Dongsha)

Central Weather Administration(CWA) of Tai Wan website had more data
https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46810
Pressure chart↓
No idea why there is no wind speed chart, through

BTW, Yagi is moving away from Dongsha station(20.7N, 116.7E), yet pressure is still dropping

[ElectricStorm]

Once the eye clears out should easily be a Cat 5. Probably well into Cat 4 range approaching super typhoon status right now.

[kevin]

An equal blend of the 6 intensity estimates (ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, DMINT, MW SOUNDERS, SATCON) gives an intensity of 923 mb, 125 kt. Furthermore, AI-RI (which updates a little more than 2 hours ago when the storm was assessed at 120 kt) gives a 52.4% chance of 20kt/12hr, which means a 52.4% chance of a 140 kt cat 5. There is even a 22.9% chance of 40kt/24hr, which is just insane and would amount to a 160 kt typhoon before landfall. Either way this will likely be a historic storm for the region.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

I Think that JTWC is being somewhat conservative in this 21z forecast. Yagi is likely going to peak at around 145 - 150 kt, not at just 130 kt. But either way this storm is going to be historic. Maybe already it is now...

[Hurricane2022]

the eye of Yagi has been warming very gradually so far. Also notice this WSW dip that Yagi has been doing in the last few frames.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like there is some N shear affecting Yagi now, maybe that's why it is struggling to warm up his eye?

[Kingarabian]

the eye of Yagi has been warming very gradually so far. Also notice this WSW dip that Yagi has been doing in the last few frames.
https://imageshack.com/i/poH3PXMng

WSW dip is a precursor for ERI.

Some mid shear but it should pull through.

[dexterlabio]

That WSW dip is a classic track for these WPAC howlers, primarily due to strong East Asia subtropical ridge

[WaveBreaking]

Sunrise

[ElectricStorm]

Eye is clearer but the CDO is much less symmetrical on the east side. Looks like a bit of shear may be getting to it. I'd put it at 130kts for 0z.