Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Stratton23]

MarioProTVI respectfully I disagree, the CMC, ICON, Euro AIFS, still develop this, they wont decrease development chances over one run, i have a hinch they are going to wait on the Euro/ EPS runs first

[Audrey2Katrina]

GEFS has backed off on development, still a lot of uncertainty though

Virtually no model develops it anymore. I think it’s time to drop chances as the GFS was really the only one still predicting development. The BoC/Western Gulf chances are a wild card and don’t even matter if the wave buries itself into Central America. To think the EPS on August 26 was saying we’d have a hurricane north of PR or so right now which ended up trending to basically nothing is

I don't think that means a whole lot. As a resident of the central Gulf who's seen more than my share of majors hitting my area, I hope it DOES peter out. However, it could well be that once it crosses the Yucatan, those very warm waters in the Bay of Campeche could fire this thing into something nobody will want a part of. It's no guarantee, but the possibility does exist.

[Stratton23]

00z Euro is trending toward development in the Southern gulf , moves into tampico as a weak TD/TS, but thats 8-9 days out, the fact that the Euro OP run is starting to catch on to some organization is big

[LAF92]

00z Euro is trending toward development in the Southern gulf , moves into tampico as a weak TD/TS, but thats 8-9 days out, the fact that the Euro OP run is starting to catch on to some organization is big

Right on Que the 0z euro has a system meandering in the BOC

[Stratton23]

Still good support from the EPS

[chaser1]

I'm not buying it. Not until I see one of two things occur first. Either a Bonafide TD on satellite, or two or more Global models depicting a TS at their 72 hr forecast.

[Stratton23]

Based on the model runs overnight, their is a decent bet this is going to become francine in the BOC, the euro/ ICON/ CMC are all in agreement, thTs enough for me

[Hammy]

I'm not buying it. Not until I see one of two things occur first. Either a Bonafide TD on satellite, or two or more Global models depicting a TS at their 72 hr forecast.

Probably the safest course until there's actually a trackable center/developed system. The models have been horrendous, and a reminder what the Euro ensembles looked like a mere 72 hours ago

[kevin]

The last two ICON runs show something very... interesting.

This system develops into a TD/low-end TS (let's call it Francince from now on for clarity) in 66 - 84 hrs and then makes landfall in Yucatan. Around the same time at +90 hrs a tropical system starts to consolidate close to the Mexico/US border. It is pulled south by Francine and then merges into a larger system which goes north and could become the big ominous Gulf hurricane. I don't know if this would be 1, 2 or 3 separate TCs, but it'll be interesting for sure. Also note that if this ICON run becomes reality we could be at Kirk in the naming list by September 10 (3 tropical storms in the eastern MDR, a weak TS in the subtropics and the 2 Gulf/WCar systems).

[Frank P]

First vis sat loops of the system.

[WaveBreaking]

Interestingly enough, if you look at the low level clouds from 16N 65W at the beginning of the loop to 17N 73W at the end, you can see some sort of vortmax/weak circulation rushing off to the ENE that tightens up at the end of the loop. Is this the LLC that models hinted at decoupling from the MLC around this time period?

[Teban54]

It seems that the main reason why 0z and 6z GFS doesn't develop the system -- not even in the BoC -- is that the energy gets sent to EPAC. The thing is, that makes GFS the southern outlier, as CMC and Euro both have the wave over BoC. If you extrapolate GFS's level of organization (which is still decent even if not as well-developed as previous runs) into BoC, you'd expect something to develop there.

[mpic]

The thing that disturbs me is the attitude of people in my area of SE Texas dismissing the rest of the season. The Spring storms and then Beryl with all of the damage, rain and loss of electricity seems to have convinced them that the season is over. It may well be and sure hope it is, but we do get majors in September and they seem to have forgotten that.

[Stratton23]

GFS still tries to send the energy into the pacific, im not buying this, so as for now the GFS is an outlier, the 12z CMC has shifted north in the BOC and looks similar to the 12z ICON with a developing system, a good deal more North of its 00z run

[LadyBug72]

The thing that disturbs me is the attitude of people in my area of SE Texas dismissing the rest of the season. The Spring storms and then Beryl with all of the damage, rain and loss of electricity seems to have convinced them that the season is over. It may well be and sure hope it is, but we do get majors in September and they seem to have forgotten that.

I am in SE Texas and agree with you on this, I think some of it has to do with the front that is supposed to move in by Sunday....I know in my experience of talking to people and belonging to weather forums etc over the years I have learned a lot of people hear the word front and automatically think hurricane season is over for our area. I can see how it can be tricky because sometimes that is the case, but I don't think they realize it has to be a strong front.

[Stratton23]

12z CMC coming in with a strong TS into north mexico, pretty decent shift north though, im having a hard time buying the GFS as its doing weird stuff with energy from the pacific

[Kazmit]

It seems like if this system reemerges into the BoC it has a good chance of developing. GFS has had it going into the EPac for several runs now, but most of the other globals have it in the BoC. ICON is particularly enthusiastic, showing a strengthening hurricane approaching Texas. I wouldn't discount this one yet.

[Stratton23]

12z euro develops and stalls in the southern gulf

[Teban54]

Lol...

[chaser1]

Not unlike the tropical wave out in the Eastern MDR, this disturbance is also looking a little better early this afternoon. What any models are depicting beyond 3 days from now are irrelevant. What is relevant is what level of convection and organization this is exhibiting as the day and evening progresses. Diurnal processes notwithstanding, it is only a viable candidate for development.... if it can maintain convection. It really does come down to what we see with our own eyes. Let's see what this looks like tonight.