WINTER STORM DISCUSSION, an active and progressive pattern!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon everyone. A busy weekend coming up with a nation divided into two parts. In the eastern half of the country, temperatures are currently 10-15 degrees above average. In Houston for example, the current temperature is 75 degrees. It's 63 degrees in Washington DC, 68 in Baltimore, and a balmy 64 degrees in St Louis. Those warm temperatures are ahead of the cold front, which is situated across the central part of the country today. Meanwhile behind the cold front, a much colder airmass and the potential of a winter storm coming up. Current temperatures range from 47 in Kansas City, 44 in Chicago, low to mid 40s in the Quad Cities, just 16 in Bismarck, ND, and only 2 above zero in Williston. When you factor in the winds in Williston, ND, wind chills are 11 below zero.

The contrast in the temperatures or the increase in the thermal gradient will enhance this upcoming storm system and strengthen it as we head through the upcoming weekend. The system is developing over the central rockies as we speak. Snowfall amounts of 6-8 inches is expected over parts of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado today. Ski resorts are certainly liking this added snow pack. The effects from this storm has already been felt in a cold way across the Pacific northwest. Snow levels dropped occasionally down to the valley floor in Seattle and Portland at times. Tacoma had some accumulating snow and even Spokanne, WA received a record of 8.2 inches of snow on Thursday, beating the old record of 6.5 inches.

As we head on through the weekend, low pressure is expected to continue to organize over southern Colorado and the four corners region. Upslope flow will be enhanced over the front range of the rockies. That combined with much colder temperatures will result in heavy snow and blizzard conditions from Denver northward up to Cheyenne, Wyoming. 6-12 inches of snow is likely in and around Denver and Cheyenne. Locally higher amounts are possible through tomorrow. Areas impacted by this snowstorm includes the rockies as mentioned today through Saturday. Likewise the central plains will likely see heavier snows Saturday night and shifting north and east on Sunday. The heavier spots could see nearly a foot of the white stuff. This could include areas of northwest Kansas, central and western nebraska, and west central Iowa. South and east of those areas, warmer air will likely preclude significant snowfall amounts. However severe weather threat is very high Sunday afternoon and evening from Kansas City and the Quad Cities eastward to St Louis, Chicago, and Little Rock. Widespread damaging winds are likely along the cold front.

Meanwhile the winter storm continues to rage Monday with very heavy snows for northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. A few inches of snow would likely have accumulated by Sunday night. Monday's snowfall will likely be even more significant with 1-2 inches per hour a good possibility. That combined with wind gusts to 50-65 mph will result in whiteout conditions. Gale warnings will likely be hoisted over the great lakes region over the upcoming weekend and into early next week courtesy of 45 knot gales. Gusts could easily exceed storm force at or over 50 knots. Snowfall accumulation in the heaviest spots in Michigan's upper peninsula could exceed 2 feet in some places when this storm system is all said and done. Meanwhile expect scattered showers and storms to enter the mid atlantic region Monday afternoon and evening with rain further north into the eastern Great Lakes including Buffalo and Cleveland.

Obviously this storm system needs to be watched carefully and folks in the path of this storm system whether it's wintry or severe should prepare for it. A tough travel weekend at the very least is expected. Be careful.

After this weekend's storm is all said and done, we should focus on storm #2, which will invade the western US and take about the same path as this weekends storm. That means more heavy mountain snows in the rockies and the northern plains with storms and rain along and ahead of the cold front in the central United States by late next week. An active and progressive pattern as you can probably tell.

An update later on this situation. Good afternoon everyone.

Jim

[JCT777]

Good analysis, Jim. Looks to be mild along the east coast for a while. I was hoping the 2nd storm might go further south and east than the first storm, but you may very well be right.

[wxid]

Good work, This looks like the distinctive narrative Wx style of Shuyler? Is it?