WPAC: HONE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

EP, 91, 2024082006, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1317W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, ep722024 to ep912024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep912024.dat

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looking like 91E will be the dominant entity over 90E?

[Yellow Evan]

Model support has shifted to 91E from 90E

[Yellow Evan]

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined area of
low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
are gradually becoming better organized, and only a slight increase
in organization could result in the formation of a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph. The weaker disturbance located just to its southwest
is expected to dissipate or merge with this system during the next
several hours. This system is expected to strengthen as it moves
across the central Pacific basin late this week and move near the
Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Given the latest CB has covered the center, this is almost certainly a sheared TC.

[Kingarabian]

Models having a hard time with Hawaii islands volcanos. Have the center hopping all over the place once this gets near.

[SconnieCane]

Wouldn't it be ironic if Hawaii saw a direct TC impact during a La Nina in which the EPAC struggled mightily to even produce a storm for the first two months of the season? Hurricane models indicating it is a possibility with this one.

[Kingarabian]

Needs to get it's act together quicker for there to be any Hawaii impacts. There will be an initial weakness in the ridge that may take it towards Hawaii island but this system may be too weak to feel it. A second weakness may open up if this is south of the islands but it will likely be brief and the TUTT will be in better position to shear it.

[cycloneye]

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since
last night in association with a well-defined area of low pressure
located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. However, only
a slight improvement in organization could result in the formation
of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today while it
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This system is expected
to strengthen as it moves into the central Pacific basin tonight or
on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend
or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Hot tower going off over the LLC. Let's see if it can expand.

[Kingarabian]

Latest Euro has this just missing Kauai. Looks like there's a possibility for this to feel the second weakness if this clears the Big Island to the south.

[Yellow Evan]

We can get northward motion near Hawaii but probably not low enough heights for full on re-curvature.

[Kingarabian]

Will move into an area of lower shear in about 12 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Should be classified already.
https://postimg.cc/f3pvMFx5/d9f96a71

[ElectricStorm]

Just looked and there hasn't been a CPAC name used in quite a long time, since 2019. Looks like this has a chance to finally be the next one

[Subtrop]

TXPN41 PHFO 221205
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1205 UTC THU AUG 22 2024
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII CP902024
B. 22/1130Z
C. 15.4N
D. 140.2W
E. GOES-18
F. 2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HOURS.
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CURVED BAND WRAPS 0.4 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE...FINAL T BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.
$$
JELSEMA

[cycloneye]

CP, 90, 2024082212, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1403W, 30, 1005, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bcp902024.dat

[DorkyMcDorkface]

CP, 01, 2024082212, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1403W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

This is about a day late. And I'm sure it has TS force winds.