Texas Summer 2024

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting run on the 12Z GFS for mid-August. I saw the 6Z had it going in south Texas, if it is anything at all. Model is picking up something I guess.

[snownado]

Interesting run on the 12Z GFS for mid-August. I saw the 6Z had it going in south Texas, if it is anything at all. Model is picking up something I guess.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024080212/gfs_ref_frzn_scus_48.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024080212/gfs_ref_frzn_scus_50.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024080212/gfs_ref_frzn_scus_53.png

Houston doesn't need another direct hit. So hopefully the GFS is up to its usual hijinks with that run...

[rwfromkansas]

Woken up by a heavy thunderstorm that is quite large over Tarrant. FWD taken by surprise. Not even a chance overnight in the latest forecast discussion. This was unexpected but nice since we kept missing out during the rainy pattern.

[gpsnowman]

Woken up by a heavy thunderstorm that is quite large over Tarrant. FWD taken by surprise. Not even a chance overnight in the latest forecast discussion. This was unexpected but nice since we kept missing out during the rainy pattern.

Seriously. I'm wide awake and the thunder is loud. Nice surprise now back to sleep.

[mmmmsnouts]

Woken up by a heavy thunderstorm that is quite large over Tarrant. FWD taken by surprise. Not even a chance overnight in the latest forecast discussion. This was unexpected but nice since we kept missing out during the rainy pattern.

That’s OK! They raised the chances to 40% once they already had warnings posted and it was pouring down rain and the lightning woke everyone up. So they’re covered.

[snownado]

Woken up by a heavy thunderstorm that is quite large over Tarrant. FWD taken by surprise. Not even a chance overnight in the latest forecast discussion. This was unexpected but nice since we kept missing out during the rainy pattern.

It wasn't entirely by surprise, as FWD did mention in their recent AFDs there would be an isolated chance for a strong/severe storm given the temp/dewpoint spread and a weak front (low-level convergence) moving through.

That said, even looking at the SPC mesoanalysis, this was about as marginal of a setup as you could get for organized surface convection.

EDIT: We were mostly shut out in Collin County, which I'm ok with. But I love it for you all who did see quite a bit of activity (it definitely looked nice on radar).

[Gotwood]

Man we needed this in my area after a really dry July just got almost an inch of rain IMBY.

[rwfromkansas]

Crazy how overnight rain in summer really does nothing to keep temps down. Already 86 IMBY.

[Brent]

Still seeing signs of a front here next weekend

[gpsnowman]

Still seeing signs of a front here next weekend

Does it make it through Texas?

[Brent]

Still seeing signs of a front here next weekend

Does it make it through Texas?

There are some mid 90s for DFW next weekend showing up which is well better than most of next week

[weatherdude1108]

Was 96 earlier. Just had a Summer thunderstorm pop up and work with the heat. Dropped to 73 and got 0.35"!

I'll take it, especially before the blast furnace kicks in this week

[Texoz]

Was 96 earlier. Just had a Summer thunderstorm pop up and work with the heat. Dropped to 73 and got 0.35"!

I'll take it, especially before the blast furnace kicks in this week

Yep, we're having quite the downpour in Austin. The t-storm complex seemed to form just northwest of Austin and quickly grow in size over central ATX. My son thinks he saw a funnel cloud/tornado driving back north from the airport, but he tends to exaggerate. Based on the lightening and wind gusts, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wall cloud.

EDIT: adding that hail has been reported in central/east Austin. Some rain gauges in ATX are showing almost 2 inches in last hour.

[utpmg]

Holy smokes, thunderstorm unloading over 2" here in the last hour in East Austin. I think a wee bit of hail fell too, with the big drops at the start. Mucho thunder and lightning close by. Haven't looked at my gauge yet.

[weatherdude1108]

Was 96 earlier. Just had a Summer thunderstorm pop up and work with the heat. Dropped to 73 and got 0.35"!

I'll take it, especially before the blast furnace kicks in this week

Yep, we're having quite the downpour in Austin. The t-storm complex seemed to form just northwest of Austin and quickly grow in size over central ATX. My son thinks he saw a funnel cloud/tornado driving back north from the airport, but he tends to exaggerate. Based on the lightening and wind gusts, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wall cloud.

EDIT: adding that hail has been reported in central/east Austin. Some rain gauges in ATX are showing almost 2 inches in last hour.

Yeah, I thought I heard a few ice pellets, but not sure. 2 inches? Wow! I just missed out. Definitely saw the menacing dark clouds to rhe north coming back from Freebirds on 620! Didn't look like stereotypical wall clouds to me, but who knows? Anything can happen about any time of year here.lol

[weatherdude1108]

Holy smokes, thunderstorm unloading over 2" here in the last hour in East Austin. I think a wee bit of hail fell too, with the big drops at the start. Mucho thunder and lightning close by. Haven't looked at my gauge yet.

Dang, you got the jackpot! Kept on building south I guess.

[gpsnowman]

Nasty heat on the way. Hopefully just a one week ordeal. Summer hasn't been terrible but this week is undeniable. Please October get here!!

[LadyBug72]

Does anyone know how long the high pressure is supposed to stay over us?

[Brent]

Does anyone know how long the high pressure is supposed to stay over us?

Unfortunately it could be September. Even if we get a front this month for a day or two it's just gonna get hot again unfortunately

The gfs is again hinting at another Gulf storm next weekend but like yeah it's gonna be hard to break this pattern for a few weeks probably

[LadyBug72]

Does anyone know how long the high pressure is supposed to stay over us?

Unfortunately it could be September. Even if we get a front this month for a day or two it's just gonna get hot again unfortunately

The gfs is again hinting at another Gulf storm next weekend but like yeah it's gonna be hard to break this pattern for a few weeks probably

I saw that run which is why I was asking about our high pressure...I was thinking high pressure="protection" from tropical trouble.