Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Nimbus]

We will have a big problem if models start stalling it in the middle of the gulf and not inland. That raises the ceiling significantly

I don't think we should take the 18Z GFS literally.
Stalls about 2 days over Tate's Hell State Forest due to the ridging.
The original track had a larger dip bypassing NOLA and driving north into the Louisiana coast further west.
And the UKM et, straight up from the Yucatan channel 1116 mile over bathtub warm gulf

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS shows up to 40 inches of rain in areas up near the FL/GA border.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS through 126 hours. Almost all members that show development are in the Gulf with a spread from Louisiana to the West Coast of Florida.

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS with a big uptick, spread from tampa to LA/ TEX border, gonna be a wild week ahead of watching this one

[Blown Away]

The 2pm position was just ESE of PR. Lots of deep convection well N of that location. JMHO, when we have a very undefined AOI and we see big swings in model tracks or weird stalls, sometimes the models were off on where the consolidation is really happening resulting in strange outcomes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That stall scenario is definitely concerning. Most models are showing it now.

[toad strangler]

How about some levity lol

 https://twitter.com/ryannbc6/status/1818786511640264939

[hipshot]

https://i.postimg.cc/NGNxBVJ1/goes16-ir-watl.gif

The 2pm position was just ESE of PR. Lots of deep convection well N of that location. JMHO, when we have a very undefined AOI and we see big swings in model tracks or weird stalls, sometimes the models were off on where the consolidation is really happening resulting in strange outcomes.

What is that wicked looking convection over the Nicaragua area?

[cycloneye]

Cone more west in GOM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward
Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and
northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system is not
anticipated during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean,
including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater
Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[SFLcane]

[floridasun]

i think that whole state will get a lot rain e4ven here in south fl because we on right side of low pressure let see were low form nhc likely make this invest by 11pm

[AtlanticWind]

I wouldn’t sleep on this for S Florida yet as the models are still jumping around.
If a center gets North of Cuban coastline we could possibly get a quick spin up
on this system.

[Stratton23]

thats quite the spread on the GEFS lol

[BobHarlem]

thats quite the spread on the GEFS lol

It gets even more silly a bit later in the run like a big splat up against the southeast. A few ensembles have it hanging around there until Friday/Saturday.

[floridasun]

I wouldn’t sleep on this for S Florida yet as the models are still jumping around.
If a center gets North of Cuban coastline we could possibly get a quick spin up
on this system.

i never take eye off system to my east we see if go all over islands or go north them a bit

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1818797005876896011

[WaveBreaking]

[SFLcane]

Big blowup north of PR,…

[lsuhurricane]

End of 18z Euro appears to be a tad west of the 12z run. 90 hrs

Not intensifying at that point though

[ThunderForce]

Huh? Are tropical waves really less likely to strengthen if they stall for a time? I haven't heard this before.
This is related to the current tropical wave that's being monitored in this thread.

 https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1818763674569289753