Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[lsuhurricane]

Appears that the ICON is keeping this in the GOM. Stronger ridging on the eastern seaboard being the culprit.

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1818662816405913937?s=46

Not bad considering that that doesn't sound like the healthiest breakfast.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon goes through keys/south Florida briefly pops into the Gulf, then exits via Jacksonville, and the newer part, now forms it into a hurricane offshore of NC.

[hipshot]

https://i.postimg.cc/Kz22LGMB/bnbnb.gif

From that view, the split of the wave sure looks like it may be a real thing!

[Blown Away]

12z Icon goes through keys/south Florida briefly pops into the Gulf, then exits via Jacksonville, and the newer part, now forms it into a hurricane offshore of NC.

12z ICON rakes over all the GA islands and then tries to consolidate in the FL Straits before going over the FL Peninsula... I wonder IF this area moves just N of the GA islands will the models see better conditions earlier?

[BobHarlem]

Notable Gulf/E. Coast split in the 6z Euro ensembles. Follows along with the weaker wave goes into the Gulf idea. (compared to 0z which had almost nothing in the Gulf)

[chaser1]

If I were forced to project where an invest would be established, I'd guess close to 17.8 N & 62.8 W (stretched SSE to NNW)

[chaser1]

12Z GFS and ICON looking pretty similar at 102 hr's (so far)

[Blown Away]

If this AOI moves rakes over all the GA Islands it will stay shallow, move farther W, and lift into the EGOM and develop (12z GFS).

If AOI lifts just N of the GA Islands I think it will find better conditions, deepen near Bahamas and be a threat to FL/SE CONUS... JMHO

[toad strangler]

12z GFS landfalls in the FL Big Bend. REALLY REALLY slow. Pretty much stalling

[BobHarlem]

TD/TS landfall in Big Bend, moving pretty slow and more or less stalls on the Big Bend. Much of Florida would get inundated on this run.

[chaser1]

Hey Debby, I've got Elena on the line. She told me to tell you "Respect the Ridge"

[BobHarlem]

After stalling around the Big Bend for a day or so, it makes it back into the Gulf at hour 156

[WaveBreaking]

One thing I recently noticed with this setup is that models were possibly overdoing the Fujiwhara interaction between the ITCZ disturbance and the AEW.

Current satellite imagery shows our main wave axis near the Leeward Islands, but the ITCZ disturbance is lagging behind and is elongated E to W.


My original understanding of what supposed to happen between the two vort maxes was that the ITCZ disturbance was supposed to pivot N of the wave, strengthen, and become the dominant feature as seen below:


But what happened instead was that the ITCZ disturbance failed to pivot N into more favorable conditions and instead got sheared out by the wave, meaning that the wave was never pulled N.


Therefore, one could make the conclusion that the more southern track solutions are more likely barring any downstream influence from a stronger-than-forecast trough.

[toad strangler]

Geez this operational GFS 12z run would flood the entire FL peninsula if it verified. Another crazy run and it ain't over yet.

[BobHarlem]

Geez this operational GFS 12z run would flood the entire FL peninsula if it verified. Another crazy run and it ain't over yet.

Why not?

[chaser1]

Geez this operational GFS 12z run would flood the entire FL peninsula if it verified. Another crazy run and it ain't over yet.

That AIFS model run seemed crazy..... but maybe not SO crazy LOL

[Stratton23]

Thats an almost harvey like stall on the GFS, its going to get very tricky when it gets into the gulf with potentially a ridge trapping it in place or causing it to move very sporadically

[toad strangler]

Geez this operational GFS 12z run would flood the entire FL peninsula if it verified. Another crazy run and it ain't over yet.

That AIFS model run seemed crazy..... but maybe not SO crazy LOL

That's almost 4 straight days of stalling / meandering

[SFLcane]

Geez this operational GFS 12z run would flood the entire FL peninsula if it verified. Another crazy run and it ain't over yet.

My point indeed! Impacts are coming to the peninsula to what extent not sure yet. Even a weak storm brings impacts ask texas how it went with there cat 1.