Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[SFLcane]

[boca]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/zGpFCVW1/dddd.gif

Which model is that are they new or changed their name to something else.

[jlauderdal]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/zGpFCVW1/dddd.gif

Which model is that are they new or changed their name to something else.

Euro AI model, and it's been all over the place; discount it for now.

[SFLcane]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/zGpFCVW1/dddd.gif

Which model is that are they new or changed their name to something else.

Euro AI model, and it's been all over the place; discount it for now.

Cant discount anything right now we dont even have a coherent disturbance yet. Gfs surely not alone with the gom idea. Just saying

[boca]

Which model is that are they new or changed their name to something else.

Euro AI model, and it's been all over the place; discount it for now.

Cant discount anything right now we dont even have a coherent disturbance yet. Gfs surely not alone with the gom idea. Just saying

Thank you for the info.

[jlauderdal]

Which model is that are they new or changed their name to something else.

Euro AI model, and it's been all over the place; discount it for now.

Cant discount anything right now we dont even have a coherent disturbance yet. Gfs surely not alone with the gom idea. Just saying

The GOM idea isn't the issue; how it gets to the gulf is and its inconsistency. Discount doesn't mean toss it, and there are runs of models that get tossed completely. If that run of the Euro-AI is remotely close to reality with its track east and across florida, I will eat 10 pounds of crow.

[NDG]

I wouldn't throw out the GFS solutions out the window with the Euro ensembles trending west little by little, even more in the short term.
ICON and CMC have always been too inconsistent for me to put too much stock into them.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

ill say it again. i dont like the hook. i can just see that shift west a few hundred miles as the week goes on

[BobHarlem]

It'll be odd if it coming from such a dry origin it winds up being a large flooding Tropical storm for Florida or the Southeast (I.e. Fay or Ian type of flooding in Florida). The AI Euro is like the AI image generator that randomly sticks in third arms and the like, but the idea of a stall or just massive rain I think is legitimate.

[NDG]

It'll be odd if it coming from such a dry origin it winds up being a large flooding Tropical storm for Florida or the Southeast (I.e. Fay or Ian type of flooding in Florida). The AI Euro is like the AI image generator that randomly sticks in third arms and the like, but the idea of a stall or just massive rain I think is legitimate.

Ever since it was in western Africa it always had a very rich low level moisture but as soon as it started getting away from the H70 SAL last night it started to bloom like a flower, will continue to do so the more west it gets.

[jlauderdal]

ill say it again. i dont like the hook. i can just see that shift west a few hundred miles as the week goes on

No doubt, we stared down Floyd back in the day as it was coming into the bahamas and was supposed to hook, it did but we are all boarded up in sofla just in case. Sofla was shut down for 2 days, and we had less than an inch of rain and plenty of sun; that was a big win and my first time looking down the barrel of a major hurricane.

[AnnularCane]

I wish they'd make it an invest so it can have a floater. I keep going into Tropical Tidbits forgetting that there's no floater yet and have to settle for one of the wider views instead.

[Blown Away]

Convection really building...

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1818662816405913937

[SFLcane]

[BobHarlem]

Juicing up quite well today, click image for latest:

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/Kz22LGMB/bnbnb.gif

This got juicy really quick.

[Blown Away]

Just an observation, the GFS has been showing initial deeper convection over the past few runs... Maybe seeing better conditions and maybe they can lock in better??

[chaser1]

So is it me or does anyone else get Elena vibes when they see the GFS?

Btw, you want a good ole GFS vs Euro battle, this is it because they’re on opposite sides of the spectrum here.

Bingo! Same thoughts too. Not suggesting the exact same occurs but a similar evolution seems less unlikely.

So here too is something to consider. Jump onto Tropical Tidbits, click Models, then Euro (6Z run) for the forecast time of 0Z Aug 3rd. Now go to the bottom of the page and click on the "Previous Run" arrow a few times. Now click on the "Next Run" arrow to the current (6Z) model output. The reason that the recent runs of Operational EURO is less enthusiastic about organization and genesis in the S. Bahamas and off S. Florida is that you'll notice with each model run, the 500 mb vorticity has become progressively weaker and more NE/SW stretched out. Do the same with the ICON and you'll see the same thing.

Furthermore, NDG made a nice observation regarding the clear forecast distinction between the GFS and the EURO 6Z 500 mb heights for 0Z Aug 3rd. The GFS distinctly indicating a further west extension of the W. Atlantic mid-level ridge then what the EURO seemed to indicate. Possible reason being that the wave itself has yet to develop any vertical structure and is doing nothing (yet) to assist in breaking down the strong ridge to it's north. So why begin to lean more toward a GFS solution GOM solution?? Well, take a look at last night's EURO 0Z 500 mb Geopotential Height forecast for 3Z on Aug 3rd (not the 500mb vorticity output). Now, click on the "Prior Run" button at the bottom of screen. Interestingly the EURO depicts greater 594 height bridging over N. Florida then what its prior runs depicted.

Hipshot, "how will we know which one verifies?" Great question but that likely will be answered at the point and time when we finally do have a (persistent) CDO develop. Right now, there are some intense CB's popping NNE of E. Puerto Rico but it's getting pretty sheared. I think we'll have to wait at least 24 more hours to see some evidence of a more congruent concentration of convection and mid-level organization. If NHC indicates later today that this system has been classified, than it still begs the question "where?". Hey, perhaps this disturbance unexpectedly starts to become better organized today, NHC classifies it an invest and the EURO still proves plausible... but I doubt it. Days ago I projected my thoughts that this would not develop North of the Greater Antilles firstly due to its sprawling size and dry air. At that point I though it seemed inevitable for the disturbance to drag across the Greater Antilles. I didn't buy much into this developing into a GOM hurricane though and I still have my doubts. Now I wait for the EURO 12Z run to further lean toward a GOM solution (weak, strong or otherwise) or perhaps further west development in the Florida Straits or just south of Cuba.

[tropicwatch]

Looking a lot better this morning with the buildup of convection. Finally might get an invest tag this afternoon.