Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[zzzh]

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Some development of this system will
be possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the
early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles toward the latter part
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Ubuntwo]

Euro has trended towards a stronger low pressure area in the Central Atlantic, which the previously-dominant Eastern Atlantic wave interacts with:


When the two waves interact this run, neither appears dominant, unlike previous runs (look towards the west):


This leads to a strung-out wave signature with no concentrated vorticity crossing the Greater Antilles:


This solution is a lot more in-line with what the GFS has settled on:


The vorticity stringing out east-west makes consolidation more difficult, and also renders the wave more sensitive to land interaction with the Greater Antilles (elongation north-south with this land interaction would promote more development, on the other hand.) What that said, the environment in the Gulf isn't bad. Models have solid moisture levels, and on some runs we've seen a ULAC align with the wave. Additionally, the low in the Central Atlantic has been trending towards closing off before interacting with the second wave, so a short-lived depression or weak storm in the MDR is also on the table.

Most important thing to watch will be the amplification of these two separate systems & the evolution of their interaction.

[Nimbus]

Quite a lot of dry shear ~-40 -45 W currently but the wave could pull some moisture up from the ITCZ?

[aspen]

Right now I’m thinking this’ll be a sacrificial wave to help clear out the dust ahead of other waves that may find more success between August 5-15th, as the positive MJO moves in. Perhaps we could see some development from this one in the Gulf if any of its vorticity survives.

[Stratton23]

aspen thats what interests me, I think we could see this wave just hold together but not necessarily develop as it either interacts with the islands or tracks through the caribbean, euro does show it getting into the western gulf, environment looks decent in the gulf, worth watching

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro Ensembles still busy, not quite as dense as the 0z.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

12z Euro Ensembles still busy, not quite as dense as the 0z.
https://i.imgur.com/z5mNugC.png

oh i dont like that right hook pattern at all

[Ubuntwo]

The eastern wave maintains dominance on the 18z GFS, developing an anticyclone while over the Caribbean. This run appears to have a favorable setup for development. That said, another 50 miles north and it loses its vorticity over Hispaniola and then Cuba. A fine line to ride.

[Stratton23]

Ubuntwo has a weak tropical storm shooting the yuctan channel at hour 216

[IcyTundra]

Looks like the GFS finally woke up.

[Ubuntwo]

This is the difference between a major hurricane and open wave -150 hours, right before the trades kick up and land interaction. The butterfly effect in action, folks.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1816970177721872840

[Nimbus]

This is the difference between a major hurricane and open wave -150 hours, right before the trades kick up and land interaction. The butterfly effect in action, folks.
https://i.imgur.com/bN0jsu2.gif

Steering ridge Tuesday next week is pretty strong which is the problem, open wave in a dry environment might not be a threat.

edit to add:
Looks like its down around 10N -34.4W tonight pulling moisture but if it gains much latitude it might stay an open wave. Might enter the Caribbean further south than GFS is depicting?

[Keldeo1997]

GFS has a RIing storm into TX/LA line. Its in fantasy land though

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS not showing much development. 4-5 members with development of a weak system (~10% of members).

[Ubuntwo]

18Z GEFS not showing much development. 4-5 members with development (~10% of members).

https://i.ibb.co/T0mYpdV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh120-384.gif

GEFS has 31 members, EPS has 51. Although modest, this is the highest GEFS support since the Euro first picked up on the system.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS not showing much development. 4-5 members with development (~10% of members).

https://i.ibb.co/T0mYpdV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh120-384.gif

GEFS has 31 members, EPS has 51. Although modest, this is the highest GEFS support since the Euro first picked up on the system.

Correct so I bit higher than 10%. Closer to 15% of members showing development then.

[IcyTundra]

18Z EPS (only goes out to 6 days)

[lsuhurricane]

And just like that.....both the 0z GFS and Canadian runs are popping a storm entering the gulf. That switch got flipped quick.

[IcyTundra]

0Z Canadian now on board with development




0Z GFS still shows development