2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Camerooski]

12z ECMWF uptick in intensity

[chaser1]

https://imgur.com/BMManXj

12z ECMWF uptick in intensity

Interesting; in part however given that the prior model run had the potentially disturbance being dragged over the Greater Antilles. That 12Z suggests it may be a few degrees further north coming "up the alley"

[cycloneye]

Breaking news= 12z ECMWF once again develops wave just off Africa now.

[IcyTundra]

https://imgur.com/BMManXj

12z ECMWF uptick in intensity

Interesting; in part however given that the prior model run had the potentially disturbance being dragged over the Greater Antilles. That 12Z suggests it may be a few degrees further north coming "up the alley"

It's pretty close to where the 12Z run was yesterday. It is a bit slower today but if you interpolate the track 12-18 hours it would be a similar position to where the 12Z was yesterday.

[cycloneye]

zzzh, inadvertly, deleited your post as was going to quote your post. I thought it was the wave just offshore, but is then that biggie.

[AnnularCane]

zzzh, inadvertly, deleited your post as was going to quote your post. I thought it was the wave just offshore, but is then that biggie.

https://i.imgur.com/LWyS0iy.png

I guess it could be either one. The big one looks like it's about to gobble up the offshore wave.

[Ubuntwo]

zzzh, inadvertly, deleited your post as was going to quote your post. I thought it was the wave just offshore, but is then that biggie.

https://i.imgur.com/LWyS0iy.png

I guess it could be either one. The big one looks like it's about to gobble up the offshore wave.

You’re not wrong! Models have the energy over Africa merging with what’s offshore now.

[Ubuntwo]

[SFLcane]

FYI, conservative UKMET also has a bonified tc north of Puerto Rico.

[IcyTundra]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736018608366551111/1265757615422443520/image0.jpg?ex=66a2ac24&is=66a15aa4&hm=e4c8ddd314e7ddd07c7111602e7a55bb59e054e1aeaa746d6f7829552974597d&

Pretty substantial uptick in development from the 12Z EPS. Dry air is the only thing that might hold back development but if it is able to shield itself from the dry air conditions look very favorable.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1816206642326979039

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1816202605447549269

[otowntiger]

Without looking I’m guessing the Euro has backed off on its development of the African wave since this thread is so dead all of a sudden.

[weeniepatrol]

Without looking I’m guessing the Euro has backed off on its development of the African wave since this thread is so dead all of a sudden.

No, 12z eps is the most active run yet. The timeframe of development is beyond the 144 hours 18z goes out to, and 0z isn’t out yet

[Teban54]

Without looking I’m guessing the Euro has backed off on its development of the African wave since this thread is so dead all of a sudden.

As others have posted above:

12z operational Euro has 996 mb through the Bahamas, likely on approach to Florida.

12z Euro ensembles has 29 members out of 51 (57%) showing development.

[Keldeo1997]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/ ... 253a32a1d&

I will note it look like there will be a monster Ridge parked over the Central US so there will likely be no trough so unless the Bremuda H is weak US impacts will be likely.

[Stratton23]

Keldeo1997 I wouldn’t be so sure about that, the models have the ridge shifting off to the west and eventually re centering over the western - northern US, that is going to leave the gulf coast open

[zzzh]

Euro and EPS basically drops development this run.

[otowntiger]

Euro and EPS basically drops development this run.

[REDHurricane]

Euro and EPS basically drops development this run.

Eh I'm not so sure about that, to me it looks like half of the EPS members still keep the system forming north of the Greater Antilles while the other half show a weaker, more southerly system holding off on development until it hits the western Caribbean and interacting with a CAG-type setup possibly? In my experience it's pretty typical for the models to take a few days to calibrate once a potential TC comes off of Africa, so we should have a much better idea about the forecast in another day or two.