WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

[ChrisH-UK]

Source. Kompsat-2A Geo Colour IR blend - https://col.st/l90dV

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1815750026066542946

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1815764446419058718

[Hayabusa]

Is KMA's Unified Model (from Ukmet) reliable?

[InfernoFlameCat]

An eye is popping out on infrared. Its probably a major now.

[Kingarabian]

An eye is popping out on infrared. Its probably a major now.

Yeah it's basically there. Winds need to catch up though.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks very good!!

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like Gaemi is in the middle of an EWRC. But I'm not sure if she/he will be able to finish it.

[Hayabusa]

10kts early to call it a STY

WDPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 22.8N 123.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 05W GAEMI WITH A DISTINCT PINHOLE EYE AND A LARGE
REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTH, GIVING
THE SYSTEM AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE ON THE UPPER-LEVELS. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH A CONCENTRIC RING OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND THE INNER EYE. A 231433Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
A MICROWAVE EYE HINTING AT THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF AN OUTER
EYEWALL AS WELL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR, MICROWAVE, AND
RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 105 KTS AT 1900Z
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 1900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 05W IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN OVERALL TRACK
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. HISTORICALLY, THE
TOPOGRAPHY OF NORTHERN TAIWAN IS KNOWN TO CAUSE A TRACK DEFLECTION
WHICH MAY CAUSE A TRACK DISCONTINUITY AROUND THE NORTHERN COAST THAT
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24 AND IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST
GRAPHIC. BETWEEN TAU 36-48, STY 05W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TRACKING SLIGHTLY NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTER COMPLETING ERC WHICH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
BEFORE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 130KTS BY TAU
36 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. OUTFLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG EQUATORWARD WHILE A TUTT CELL LOCATED WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPON INTERACTION WITH
LAND, STY 05W WILL BEGIN WEAKENING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR (20-30KTS) OVER LAND AND IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT
BEFORE REACHING FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THERE MAY BE VARIATIONS
IN HOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR BASED ON IF AND HOW LARGE THE
TRACK DEVIATIONS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TAIWAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STY 05W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER, MESOSCALE MODELS HAFS-A AND HWRF
DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEFLECT NORTHWARD UPON LANDFALL WITH
TAIWAN RATHER THAN RESUME THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND HINTS AT A MORE
NORTHWARD LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE CONTINUOUSLY WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION THROUGH
TAU 96.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[Hurricane2022]

10kts early to call it a STY

WDPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 22.8N 123.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 05W GAEMI WITH A DISTINCT PINHOLE EYE AND A LARGE
REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTH, GIVING
THE SYSTEM AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE ON THE UPPER-LEVELS. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH A CONCENTRIC RING OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND THE INNER EYE. A 231433Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
A MICROWAVE EYE HINTING AT THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF AN OUTER
EYEWALL AS WELL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR, MICROWAVE, AND
RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 105 KTS AT 1900Z
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 1900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 05W IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN OVERALL TRACK
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. HISTORICALLY, THE
TOPOGRAPHY OF NORTHERN TAIWAN IS KNOWN TO CAUSE A TRACK DEFLECTION
WHICH MAY CAUSE A TRACK DISCONTINUITY AROUND THE NORTHERN COAST THAT
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24 AND IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST
GRAPHIC. BETWEEN TAU 36-48, STY 05W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TRACKING SLIGHTLY NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTER COMPLETING ERC WHICH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
BEFORE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 130KTS BY TAU
36 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. OUTFLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG EQUATORWARD WHILE A TUTT CELL LOCATED WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPON INTERACTION WITH
LAND, STY 05W WILL BEGIN WEAKENING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR (20-30KTS) OVER LAND AND IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT
BEFORE REACHING FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THERE MAY BE VARIATIONS
IN HOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR BASED ON IF AND HOW LARGE THE
TRACK DEVIATIONS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TAIWAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STY 05W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER, MESOSCALE MODELS HAFS-A AND HWRF
DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEFLECT NORTHWARD UPON LANDFALL WITH
TAIWAN RATHER THAN RESUME THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND HINTS AT A MORE
NORTHWARD LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE CONTINUOUSLY WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION THROUGH
TAU 96.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

Maybe they changed the scale?

[Hurricane2022]

Still strengthening

[mrbagyo]

serious flooding in Manila right now

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CyanideCN_/status/1815895298352500799


The Ugliest SuperTyphoon since Beryl!

[WaveBreaking]

The ULL W of Gaemi might now act as an outflow channel as it backs to the west, and Gaemi is also getting an outflow channel from the TEJ to the south and maybe (but most likely not) a jet streak near the Korean Peninsula.

[1900hurricane]

This would be a great TC for T-PARCII. Any word on if there might be any missions with this one?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1815925897502822669

[mrbagyo]

00:00 PST to 09:56 PST accumulated precipitation in Metro Manila (via weather underground)
*figures are in centimeters

[lilbump3000]

[Hurricane2022]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3251/DsgrWZ.gif [/url]

I really love 4K videos!!!!

[R o x]

https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/W/OBS_Radar.html