Will Beryl be the strongest of the 2024 NATL hurricane season?

[mrbagyo]

Spicy hot take
Beryl will be stronger than any typhoons that West Pacific will ever produce this year - WPAC can't pull the trigger against La Nina. Lol

[cycloneye]

Very good participation so far and the voting will end on July 31rst, so I expect much more votes. All the options have votes and apart from voting, members can add comments to this poll thread.

[ljmac75]

4 more will be stronger, with each reaching cat 5 intensity at the start of each month from August to November and each being stronger than the last.

[cycloneye]

This interesting poll remains open for voting until July 31rst so there is still plenty of time for those who have not voted and join the 71 members who have done so.

[cycloneye]

78 votes and counting until July 31rst.

[skillz305]

I’m gonna be bearish (depends how you see it) and say Beryl will be the strongest storm. Do I believe that? Probably not. But I’ll just guess that it will be. (Hopefully?)

[underthwx]

I picked 3....bc it seems possible given the prediction for cyclones this time around....does this mean only a landfall?...or does this poll include storms that stay to sea?....3s my number tho...im more of a hindsight type of individual...peace yall...

[chaser1]

Okay, so my S2K Poll prediction was that this season would produce 7 major hurricanes - a rather lofty guess. In fact, there were 29 of us who predicted the season would end up with 7 or more major hurricanes! If you had asked me back in April or May whether I would have anticipated 5 of the 7 major hurricanes which I predicted, to become Cat 5 intensity?? I would've said "no way" LOL. In hindsight 2005 produced (4) Cat 5 hurricanes with 3 of those 4 becoming even stronger then Hurricane Beryl. Here we are now, potentially standing at the precipice of the Hurricane Season Roller Coaster From Hell. I find it hard to mentally grasp but I finalized my guess that 4 hurricanes would actually end up being stronger then Beryl. During a season where steering might suggest further west tracking storms, the ramifications would probably prove to be stark & extreme (not to mention record breaking). 2023 was Atlantic high SST's verses El Nino. Surprisingly El Nino lost. 2024 appears to be Atlantic high SST's verses SAL. Let's all hope that "Uncle Sal" brought his big stick!

[AnnularCane]

Okay, so my S2K Poll prediction was that this season would produce 7 major hurricanes - a rather lofty guess. In fact, there were 29 of us who predicted the season would end up with 7 or more major hurricanes! If you had asked me back in April or May whether I would have anticipated 5 of the 7 major hurricanes which I predicted, to become Cat 5 intensity?? I would've said "no way" LOL. In hindsight 2005 produced (4) Cat 5 hurricanes with 3 of those 4 becoming even stronger then Hurricane Beryl. Here we are now, potentially standing at the precipice of the Hurricane Season Roller Coaster From Hell. I find it hard to mentally grasp but I finalized my guess that 4 hurricanes would actually end up being stronger then Beryl. During a season where steering might suggest further west tracking storms, the ramifications would probably prove to be stark & extreme (not to mention record breaking). 2023 was Atlantic high SST's verses El Nino. Surprisingly El Nino lost. 2024 appears to be Atlantic high SST's verses SAL. Let's all hope that "Uncle Sal" brought his big stick!

I was one of the ones to predict 7 majors. But honestly, I certainly never expected one of those 7 to be in June, and in the MDR no less. I actually had some doubts about the number, now I'm not so sure.

Those smilies you posted entertained my cat a bit, by the way. He tried to catch them.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm looking at Joyce...screams major to me

[Hurricane2022]

I'm looking at Joyce...screams major to me

Yea but you think it will be stronger than Beryl?
I'm looking at Francine, Oscar and Sara with wider eyes...
I personally think they match macabrely with a nightmarish NHC headline...

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CATEGORY 4 FRANCINE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

----------

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OSCAR NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...

----------

...MAJOR HURRICANE SARA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...

[AnnularCane]

I'm looking at Joyce...screams major to me

Yea but you think it will be stronger than Beryl?
I'm looking at Francine, Oscar and Sara with wider eyes...
I personally think they match macabrely with a nightmarish NHC headline...


[b][div]...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CATEGORY 4 FRANCINE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

Stop peering into my wild and morbid imagination, please.

[chaser1]

Okay, this thread is quickly evolving into some (for entertainment purposes only) potentially worse-case "NHC Cyclone Discussions From Hell"

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm looking at Joyce...screams major to me

Yea but you think it will be stronger than Beryl?
I'm looking at Francine, Oscar and Sara with wider eyes...
I personally think they match macabrely with a nightmarish NHC headline...

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CATEGORY 4 FRANCINE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

----------

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OSCAR NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...

----------

...MAJOR HURRICANE SARA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...

Idk about you, but I'm personally terrified about Isaac this year. I genuinely have a sense it's going to be the last Isaac, and it will leave a very memorable (not in a good way) mark on Atlantic hurricane history.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm looking at Joyce...screams major to me

Yea but you think it will be stronger than Beryl?
I'm looking at Francine, Oscar and Sara with wider eyes...
I personally think they match macabrely with a nightmarish NHC headline...

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CATEGORY 4 FRANCINE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

----------

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OSCAR NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...

----------

...MAJOR HURRICANE SARA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...

Idk about you, but I'm personally terrified about Isaac this year. I genuinely have a sense it's going to be the last Isaac, and it will leave a very memorable (not in a good way) mark on Atlantic hurricane history.

Maybe this is the year of the names that should have been but never were...(except Emily...19 years later and I'm still mad about that one )

[Woofde]

Since 1960, there have been 30 Category 5's. This gives us a ~46% of occurrence. Now, that does include many years during inactive periods, but Category 5's are still quite rare. Going off of statistics 1-2 more Category 5's seems reasonable given the favorable conditions, with one or maybe both being stronger than Beryl. More than that would be insanity, but SST's are so warm that climatology might end up thrown out the window.

If I had to bet, I'm picking one stronger storm.

[wwizard]

Since 1960, there have been 30 Category 5's. This gives us a ~46% of occurrence. Now, that does include many years during inactive periods, but Category 5's are still quite rare. Going off of statistics 1-2 more Category 5's seems reasonable given the favorable conditions, with one or maybe both being stronger than Beryl. More than that would be insanity, but SST's are so warm that climatology might end up thrown out the window.

If I had to bet, I'm picking one stronger storm.

To piggyback off of that, there’s only been 5 years since 1960 with multiple cat 5’s, but 4 of those have happened since 2005. No season but 2005 has had more than 2.

[LemieT]

I'm looking at Joyce...screams major to me

Yea but you think it will be stronger than Beryl?
I'm looking at Francine, Oscar and Sara with wider eyes...
I personally think they match macabrely with a nightmarish NHC headline...

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CATEGORY 4 FRANCINE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

----------

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OSCAR NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...

----------

...MAJOR HURRICANE SARA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...

Idk about you, but I'm personally terrified about Isaac this year. I genuinely have a sense it's going to be the last Isaac, and it will leave a very memorable (not in a good way) mark on Atlantic hurricane history.

So am I. In fact if Beryl is any indication, it's going to be historical dud names that will do the damage this year. I mean who knew Beryl had a Cat 5 in her.

I voted a conservative two more but I expect a healthy roster of majors overall this year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yea but you think it will be stronger than Beryl?
I'm looking at Francine, Oscar and Sara with wider eyes...
I personally think they match macabrely with a nightmarish NHC headline...

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CATEGORY 4 FRANCINE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

----------

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OSCAR NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...

----------

...MAJOR HURRICANE SARA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...

Idk about you, but I'm personally terrified about Isaac this year. I genuinely have a sense it's going to be the last Isaac, and it will leave a very memorable (not in a good way) mark on Atlantic hurricane history.

Maybe this is the year of the names that should have been but never were...(except Emily...19 years later and I'm still mad about that one )

I'm willing to be that in 2029 or 2035, we'll see the last Emily. A Cat 5 Emily that is much more powerful and destructive than the 2005 version and when, combined with Beryl, causes Emily 2005 to be pretty much forgotten in the historical dustbin.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Idk about you, but I'm personally terrified about Isaac this year. I genuinely have a sense it's going to be the last Isaac, and it will leave a very memorable (not in a good way) mark on Atlantic hurricane history.

Maybe this is the year of the names that should have been but never were...(except Emily...19 years later and I'm still mad about that one )

I'm willing to be that in 2029 or 2035, we'll see the last Emily. A Cat 5 Emily that is much more powerful and destructive than the 2005 version and when, combined with Beryl, causes Emily 2005 to be pretty much forgotten in the historical dustbin.

Poor Emily...she didn't deserve all this neglect