Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

[HurricaneRyan]

Going to put this here so it doesn't get buried in the Tammy thread, but Tammy's intensification into a hurricane is actually quite significant, since this makes list 3 the first list to have every single letter from A to W be used for a hurricane. Might not be the same as the first to retire every name (which we will probably never know in our lifetimes), but having every letter reach hurricane status is still a pretty cool piece of trivia.

The next closest list is list 2, which is missing two letters - but those letters are V and W, which have never been used before (Virginie and Walter). The other lists are further behind - the worst showing is probably list 1, with the letters A, M, O, P, R, T, V, and W never attaining hurricane status before. That being said, this is not surprising considering it reached R for the first time in 2021, and the L name on that list (Larry) has only been used twice!

If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.

[zhukm29]

Going to put this here so it doesn't get buried in the Tammy thread, but Tammy's intensification into a hurricane is actually quite significant, since this makes list 3 the first list to have every single letter from A to W be used for a hurricane. Might not be the same as the first to retire every name (which we will probably never know in our lifetimes), but having every letter reach hurricane status is still a pretty cool piece of trivia.

The next closest list is list 2, which is missing two letters - but those letters are V and W, which have never been used before (Virginie and Walter). The other lists are further behind - the worst showing is probably list 1, with the letters A, M, O, P, R, T, V, and W never attaining hurricane status before. That being said, this is not surprising considering it reached R for the first time in 2021, and the L name on that list (Larry) has only been used twice!

If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.

If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list

[REDHurricane]

If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.

If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list

Don't worry, I would bet pretty confidently that there will be at least two more named storms this calendar year regardless, and maybe 50/50 odds we'll see Adria and get to use the supplemental list for the first time as well

[Hammy]

If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.

If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list

Don't worry, I would bet pretty confidently that there will be at least two more named storms this calendar year regardless, and maybe 50/50 odds we'll see Adria and get to use the supplemental list for the first time as well

It would be so ironic if, since this season didn't start on the A storm (with 01L and all) it manages to END on an A storm

[AnnularCane]

We've already had 19 storms (okay, 20), which, although I suspected this year would be on the active side for a Nino, thought predictions of 19 storms were rather excessive. Um, anyway.

I just hope next time something goes unnamed, it's at the end of the year rather than at the beginning.

[HurricaneRyan]

If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.

If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list

Don't worry, I would bet pretty confidently that there will be at least two more named storms this calendar year regardless, and maybe 50/50 odds we'll see Adria and get to use the supplemental list for the first time as well

Just for everything to struggle in the month since Tammy...oof

[wwizard]

List 3 has the fewest original names left (10) and that list has been around for 43 years. We'll probably all be dead by the time one list uses up all their original names.

[Teban54]

A bit unrelated to this thread, but I want to move this timeline of naming conventions here in order to archive it in a more permanent thread:

For those who want to dig down the rabbit hole, here's a timeline of naming conventions in the Atlantic and EPAC in history.

Atlantic:

• 1947: Phonetic alphabet started being used to name storms internally by Air Weather Service, but not to the public.
• 1950: Phonetic alphabet was used in public. This was the first year in which Atlantic storms were given names.
• 1953-54: The first naming list was created. At the time, the same naming list was to be used every year, and thus the same names were used in both years. 1953 was the first year in which Atlantic storms were given human names.
• 1954: Three names were retired for the first time. At the time, they were to be retired for 10 years, after which they may be used again.
• 1955-59: A new naming list was created at the start of each year. (Except Alice in 1955, which formed in December 1954 but was named in January 1955. This happened after the decision to use distinct naming lists per year was made, but before the 1955 list was created.)
• 1960-70: 4 rotating naming lists were created and used.
• 1969: Retirement of names became permanent, as opposed to for 10 years.
• 1971-78: 10 rotating naming lists were created by NOAA, and were to be used for 1971-80 as the first rotation. However, only the first 8 were used.
• 1972: Subtropical storms began to be officially recognized and started receiving names from the phonetic alphabet. Subtropical storms that later transition into fully tropical storms would receive a new name from the standard naming list upon transition.
• 1979: The 6 modern naming lists were created by WMO and started this year, with both male and female names. (All earlier naming lists only included female names.) If the naming list was to be exhausted, Greek alphabet would be used (which happened in 2005 and 2020).
• 2000: Storms that cross between Atlantic and East Pacific basins will now retain their name. Prior to this season, they would change to a new name from the second basin upon entering it, provided the intensity was at TS or higher. The last crossover storm to receive two names was Cesar-Douglas 1996; the first crossover storm to retain a single name was Otto 2016.
• 2002: Subtropical storms now receive names from the standard naming list.
• 2021: The use of the Greek alphabet was discontinued, and a new auxiliary list is created. Names will be pulled from the auxiliary list after the main list is exhausted.

Eastern Pacific:

• 1960-1965: 4 naming lists with only female names were created. At that time, they were used in a "wraparound" fashion, where each year picked up from where the previous year left off, and a subsequent list would be used following the W storm in the previous list. 1960 was the first year in which EPAC storms were given names.
• 1965: Despite finishing List 2 with Wallie during the season, subsequent storms returned to the start of List 2 with Ava.
• 1966-1977: The 4 naming lists were now used in yearly rotations, starting with the A storm of a new list each year. Otherwise, the same 4 naming lists from 1960-65 were used: 1966 started with List 3 (following 1965's List 2).
• 1978-1982: 4 of the 6 modern naming lists were created by WMO and rotated during these 5 years, with both male and female names. Initially, they were to be the only 4 naming lists in EPAC. They are today's List 4 (Aletta), List 1 (Andres), List 2 (Agatha) and List 3 (Adrian), in order from 1978 to 1981. If the naming list was to be exhausted, Greek alphabet would be used (which never happened in EPAC).
• 1982: As the rotation cycled back to List 4, two more naming lists were added, presumably to line up with the Atlantic's rotations. List 5 (Adolph, later replaced with Alvin) was first used in 1983, and List 6 (Alma, later replaced with Amanda) in 1984.
• 1985: X, Y and Z names were added to EPAC naming lists in October, due to the exceptionally active season causing fear of exhausting the naming list. These names rotate once every 2 years, unlike A-W names that rotate once every 6 years. The 1985 season only reached X; the 1992 season reached Z, while being the second and most recent time that the X name was used.
• 2000: Storms that cross between Atlantic and East Pacific basins will now retain their name. Prior to this season, they would change to a new name from the second basin upon entering it, provided the intensity was at TS or higher. The last crossover storm to receive two names was Cesar-Douglas 1996; the first crossover storm to retain a single name was Otto 2016.
• 2021: The use of the Greek alphabet was discontinued, and a new auxiliary list is created. Names will be pulled from the auxiliary list after the main list is exhausted. Note that EPAC's auxiliary list also contained X, Y and Z names, which are distinct from the two sets of X-Z names on the normal lists.

[Category5Kaiju]

If there was ever a season where an A-C storm is retired as a destructive early-season storm, I bet you that it's going to be this year

Oh, not to mention that the list we're going to use this year is List 4, with 15 OG names left on the list.

[CrazyC83]

If the predictions are right, we'll probably see some more from List 4 gone this year. But 2023 kept everything intact...so nothing is guaranteed.

[AJC3]

This is the status of the original lists as of the end of the 2023 season. For retired names where you see more than one retired name starting with the same letter, the original retirees are boldfaced before the "/", with replacement names that have also been retired to the right.

For the bottom section, I also sorted the number of original retirees by letter, in the order of the lists that they were on.

Edit: Beryl, Helene and Milton, in this year's list, have been highlighted in red as bulletproof certainties to be retired.

Observations from the lists...

(1) There are no original "F" storms left.
(2) A "V" storm has yet to be retired.
(3) Surprisingly, only one original "E" storm has been retired, meaning the second (and only other) "E" storm to be retired was its replacement.
(4)List 4 has had 6* (likely 8 after this season) original names retired without a replacement also being retired. (This is almost certain to no longer be the case with the pending retirement of Milton at the end of the season)
(5) An "I" storm has been retired from list 2 three times, the only letter/list having this distinction.
(6) The original "I" storm has been retired from 5 of 6 lists, and at least one replacement "I" storm has been retired in all 5 of those lists.
(7) If you include replacements, the numbers look like this: List 1 (11); List 2 (14); List 3 (12); List 4 (6*); List 5 (14); List 6 (11)

Complete list of original names left from 1979 onward:

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel/Ida, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances/Fiona, Georges, Ivan/Igor/Ian, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (15): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (6): Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael/Milton, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura, Paloma

Retired Left
A (2) Allen, Alicia (4) Ana, Arlene, Alberto, Arthur
B (1) Bob (5) Bonnie, Bret, Beryl, Barry, Bertha
C (2) Charley, Cesar (4) Claudette, Cindy, Chris, Chantal
D (4) David, Dennis, Dean, Diana (2) Danielle, Debby
E (1) Elena (5) Earl, Emily, Ernesto, Erin, Edouard
F (6) Frederic, Frances, Floyd, Florence, Felix, Fran (0)
G (4) Gloria, Georges, Gilbert, Gustav (2) Gert, Gabrielle
H (3) Harvey, Hugo, Hortense (3) Henri, Hermine, Helene
I (5) Isabel, Ivan, Irene, Iris, Isidore (1) Isaac
J (3) Juan, Jeanne, Joan (3) Jose, Jerry, Josephine
K (3) Katrina, Keith, Klaus (3) Kate, Karl, Karen
L (3) Lenny, Luis, Lili (3) Larry, Lisa, Leslie
M (4) Mitch, Maria, Michael, Marilyn (2) Mindy, Marco
N (2) Nate, Noel (2) Nicholas, Nicole, Nadine, Nana
O (2) Otto, Opal (4) Odette, Ophelia, Oscar, Omar
P (1) Paloma (5) Peter, Paula, Philippe, Patty, Pablo
R (2) Rita, Roxanne (4) Rose, Richard, Rafael, Rene
S (2) Stan, Sandy (4) Sam, Shary, Sebastien, Sally
T (1) Tomas (5) Teresa, Tammy, Tony, Tanya, Teddy
V (0) (6) Victor, Virginie, Vince, Valerie, Van, Vicky
W (1) Wilma (5) Wanda, Walter, William, Wendy, Wilfred

[HurricaneRyan]

If there was ever a season where an A-C storm is retired as a destructive early-season storm, I bet you that it's going to be this year

Oh, not to mention that the list we're going to use this year is List 4, with 15 OG names left on the list.

*Beryl enters the chat*

[Category5Kaiju]

If there was ever a season where an A-C storm is retired as a destructive early-season storm, I bet you that it's going to be this year

Oh, not to mention that the list we're going to use this year is List 4, with 15 OG names left on the list.

*Beryl enters the chat*

Ngl, I'm still in utter shock that my prediction from May ended up being correct. Even then, I had some doubts that this season was going to be that insane (I've been proven wrong in that regard).

It's definitely going to be kind of weird in 2030, when instead of Alberto, Beryl, Chris, we get something like Alberto, Brittany, Chris or Alberto, Brenda, Chris lolol; the start of List 4 has been the exact same ever since 1982.

[Teban54]

July 2024 update. Beryl is assumed to be retired.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (next 2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2029) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (2024/2030) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



My comments:

Despite 2023 being an active season (especially for an El Nino), no names were retired, the first such occurrence since 2014 and the first for the infamous List 3 since 1993. There would have been no chance at knocking out an original name anyway, as the only plausible candidate, Idalia, is a 3rd-generation name. Plus, most of List 3's original names are either super early or super late.

Speaking of "super early"... 2024 finally (almost certainly) retired an early-alphabet original letter. Should Beryl be retired, it will be only the second B name to be ever retired since the modern naming lists began, after Bob in 1991. It's also the first A-C name to be retired in 20 years (since Charley 2004). As many people mentioned, early-alphabet names are hard to be damaging nowadays due to better detection of storms, so Beryl is certainly anomalous in that regard.

List 4 also has many opportunities to get rid of another original name, especially given the expected active season (meaning more chances at retirement). Half of the next 10 names are not replacements (D, E, H, I, L), and even if you get past these 10, everything that follows is available except S. Even if we hit a retired name, it would be the first double retirement on the list.

Also, List 4 has the only original I name, Isaac, whereas every other I name has been retired at least twice. Will this be the year that Isaac finally lets go?

2024 also presents a good chance of getting into the auxiliary list, after two earlier close calls (2021 and 2023). CSU's latest forecast gets to Deshawn, but reaching Adria alone would make history. Even if we don't, Valerie and William will be used for the first time if they're used at all. (Valerie also has the chance to be the first V name to be retired.)

[Category5Kaiju]

July 2024 update. Beryl is assumed to be retired.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (next 2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2029) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (2024/2030) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



My comments:

Despite 2023 being an active season (especially for an El Nino), no names were retired, the first such occurrence since 2014 and the first for the infamous List 3 since 1993. There would have been no chance at knocking out an original name anyway, as the only plausible candidate, Idalia, is a 3rd-generation name. Plus, most of List 3's original names are either super early or super late.

Speaking of "super early"... 2024 finally (almost certainly) retired an early-alphabet original letter. Should Beryl be retired, it will be only the second B name to be ever retired since the modern naming lists began, after Bob in 1991. It's also the first A-C name to be retired in 20 years (since Charley 2004). As many people mentioned, early-alphabet names are hard to be damaging nowadays due to better detection of storms, so Beryl is certainly anomalous in that regard.

List 4 also has many opportunities to get rid of another original name, especially given the expected active season (meaning more chances at retirement). Half of the next 10 names are not replacements (D, E, H, I, L), and even if you get past these 10, everything that follows is available except S. Even if we hit a retired name, it would be the first double retirement on the list.

Also, List 4 has the only original I name, Isaac, whereas every other I name has been retired at least twice. Will this be the year that Isaac finally lets go?

2024 also presents a good chance of getting into the auxiliary list, after two earlier close calls (2021 and 2023). CSU's latest forecast gets to Deshawn, but reaching Adria alone would make history. Even if we don't, Valerie and William will be used for the first time if they're used at all. (Valerie also has the chance to be the first V name to be retired.)

List 1 and List 4 have oftentimes coincided with El Nino, so it's not a big surprise that they are kind of lagging in retirees.

[CrazyC83]

Since Isaac will likely be an August storm at this rate, there's definitely a good chance we lose all the "I" names.

But if Beryl is an indication, we will shed quite a bit this year.

[HurricaneRyan]

Isaac got spared this year yet again, which is funny because Helene is ramping up to be a bad storm. In the past couple uses of this naming lists, the names right before Isaac and right after it aside from Leslie have gotten kicked (Florence and Michael, now likely Beryl and Helene too). And we still have October so if this year turns around and we get to L or N, we could still get rid of another original name.

Assuming Beryl and Helene leave after this year this would be the original names remaining on this list:

Alberto, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William. That's 13 out of 21 which is still the most original names out of any list but this list has been slowly catching up since 2012.

[CrazyC83]

Isaac got spared this year yet again, which is funny because Helene is ramping up to be a bad storm. In the past couple uses of this naming lists, the names right before Isaac and right after it aside from Leslie have gotten kicked (Florence and Michael, now likely Beryl and Helene too). And we still have October so if this year turns around and we get to L or N, we could still get rid of another original name.

Assuming Beryl and Helene leave after this year this would be the original names remaining on this list:

Alberto, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William. That's 13 out of 21 which is still the most original names out of any list but this list has been slowly catching up since 2012.

One thing about this list is there are no third-generation names on it. Kirk and Milton are the only real candidates (unlikely we will get to Sara barring an epic October). Debby and Francine are unlikely to be retired IMO.

[HurricaneRyan]

Helene has indeed become a bad and devastating storm. Knowing now that Debby also caused more damage in Canada than the US, it will be interesting to see if it gets retired as well.

90L in the Atlantic will likely become Kirk, which means the system in the Western Caribbean will become Leslie. If Leslie becomes a bad storm, then we'll need a new L name.

We could potentially have up to four names retired next year, all original.

[CrazyC83]

Helene has indeed become a bad and devastating storm. Knowing now that Debby also caused more damage in Canada than the US, it will be interesting to see if it gets retired as well.

90L in the Atlantic will likely become Kirk, which means the system in the Western Caribbean will become Leslie. If Leslie becomes a bad storm, then we'll need a new L name.

We could potentially have up to four names retired next year, all original.

Not to mention what may lurk in the late season.