2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

By the way, Larry or Austin Man? The GFS long range forecast does beg the question:

What is the historical records on earliest Atlantic season date having two simultaneous Tropical storms churning?

2023 had two TS simultaneously starting on June 22: Bret and Cindy (both while in the E MDR):
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

1968 also had two at same time starting on June 22, Brenda and Candy. Unlike 2023, neither was in or even near the MDR:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1968.png

Before 1968, I don’t currently know if there have been two at same time that early.

[chaser1]

By the way, Larry or Austin Man? The GFS long range forecast does beg the question:

What is the historical records on earliest Atlantic season date having two simultaneous Tropical storms churning?

2023 had two TS simultaneously starting on June 22: Bret and Cindy (both while in the E MDR):
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

1968 also had two at same time starting on June 22, Brenda and Candy. Unlike 2023, neither was in or even near the MDR:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1968.png

Before 1968, I don’t currently know if there have been two at same time that early.

2024 will have to pull a trifecta to beat that

[ScottNAtlanta]

By the way, Larry or Austin Man? The GFS long range forecast does beg the question:

What is the historical records on earliest Atlantic season date having two simultaneous Tropical storms churning?

2023 had two TS simultaneously starting on June 22: Bret and Cindy (both while in the E MDR):
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

1968 also had two at same time starting on June 22, Brenda and Candy. Unlike 2023, neither was in or even near the MDR:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1968.png

Before 1968, I don’t currently know if there have been two at same time that early.

2024 will have to pull a trifecta to beat that

Hush!!! You don't want to give her any ideas

[weeniepatrol]

So, anyone else notice that EPS picked up on the wave behind 95? just me? ok lol

[Beef Stew]

So, anyone else notice that EPS picked up on the wave behind 95? just me? ok lol

https://i.imgur.com/2OFb17f.png

https://imgur.com/87pSe1Y

This is the wave the GFS has been hinting at for the past few days, and while the ecens ensembles have had a moderate signal the past few runs, it looks like its really picking up more support now. The 0z CMC actually has this wave going on to become stronger than 95L does in the Caribbean, but obviously it's still quite early to conclude much of anything from that. The 0z operational GFS has it forming east of the Windward islands, before succumbing to shear right around the time it enters the ECar- a solution it has been fairly consistent with for the past few runs. Given this, I expect to see a lemon in the western MDR for this system tagged by the NHC sometime tomorrow- and we'd be looking at potential impacts that are already within the 7-day window of formation.

[MetroMike]

So, anyone else notice that EPS picked up on the wave behind 95? just me? ok lol

https://i.imgur.com/2OFb17f.png

https://imgur.com/87pSe1Y

This is the wave the GFS has been hinting at for the past few days, and while the ecens ensembles have had a moderate signal the past few runs, it looks like its really picking up more support now. The 0z CMC actually has this wave going on to become stronger than 95L does in the Caribbean, but obviously it's still quite early to conclude much of anything from that. The 0z operational GFS has it forming east of the Windward islands, before succumbing to shear right around the time it enters the ECar- a solution it has been fairly consistent with for the past few runs. Given this, I expect to see a lemon in the western MDR for this system tagged by the NHC sometime tomorrow- and we'd be looking at potential impacts that are already within the 7-day window of formation.

We’ve got the lemon as of the 2am, good call

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS is showing a possible tropical cyclone near the end of the run near Honduras, could the GFS be showing favorable conditions returning for the last 10 days of the month, stay tuned

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Pretty quiet out there after Beryl. Nothing significant and consistent in the models.

[otowntiger]

Pretty quiet out there after Beryl. Nothing significant and consistent in the models.

. I’ll take it!

[Teban54]

Thread:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1810265074717614192

[BobHarlem]

GFS Ensembles mostly dead quiet for the Atlantic now


(East Pac gets a turn now)

[Hurricane2022]

GFS Ensembles mostly dead quiet for the Atlantic now
https://i.imgur.com/F8oGrEF.png

(East Pac gets a turn now)

[ROCK]

nothing to see for a few weeks at least. Maybe EOM activity into Aug...

[BobHarlem]

Nothing too alarming about it, but the Icon is trying to form something off the Florida East coast on Friday.

[jlauderdal]

Nothing too alarming about it, but the Icon is trying to form something off the Florida East coast on Friday.

Euro has something on the fl/ga border albeit weak, icon does just enough to stay offshore and take advantage.

[LarryWx]

Nothing too alarming about it, but the Icon is trying to form something off the Florida East coast on Friday.

0Z UKMET (don’t have 12Z): has TD forming off NE FL Thu PM moving NNE to NC Sat AM:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 29.3N 77.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2024 72 29.6N 78.6W 1011 27
1200UTC 12.07.2024 84 30.5N 78.5W 1012 34
0000UTC 13.07.2024 96 32.5N 78.3W 1014 30
1200UTC 13.07.2024 108 34.8N 77.3W 1016 33
0000UTC 14.07.2024 120 37.2N 75.5W 1015 32
1200UTC 14.07.2024 132 38.8N 71.3W 1012 35
0000UTC 15.07.2024 144 39.9N 66.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 15.07.2024 156 41.4N 62.6W 1007 31
0000UTC 16.07.2024 168 CEASED TRACKING

[BobHarlem]

the euro (and 12z cmc) shows it faintly (850 vorticity chart) off NC (Camp Lejeune/Jacksonville) also. So weak not to be a real concern, but interesting to watch for a sneaky home brew type of thing. Probably won't happen, but it's close to shore.




12z Euro ensembles also hint at something else in the MDR around July 18th (next Thursday)

[kevin]

Very significant increase in activity for the East coast system in the 00z Euro run. A weak TD/TS at best, but still something interesting to look for the coming days.

[jlauderdal]

Very significant increase in activity for the East coast system in the 00z Euro run. A weak TD/TS at best, but still something interesting to look for the coming days.

https://i.imgur.com/wwRvS0x.png

ICON and GFS has a weak low in the area, lets see if it can find a window to develop. Beryl certainly made the most out of its environment.

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing something dipping into the GOM off of the Florida Panhandle in about 10 days with a shot at forming before moving back on shore.