ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

10 days from start to finish.

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1810444127772795367

[LARanger]

From the moment it emerged West Africa to Texas it took 13 days for the long and historic journey of Beryl that smashed many records.

https://i.imgur.com/Xgcc5Rs.jpeg

I really like this track map product, never seen it. Its been tough finding any good ones since Unisys maps. The color table is pretty good except using yellow for CAT5.

I like the look, even down to the mid-20th Century font styling, but agree the color gradient is wacky.

Here's the link: https://hurricanes.earth.miami.edu/hurr ... index.html

[Hurricane2022]

that's all for today, folks.


ACE: 35.1150

[Ubuntwo]

This isn't based on a lot of analysis, but:

Will Beryl's peak intensity be adjusted post-season? No. It was borderline 145 kts vs. 150 kts, so I think they'll stick with 145.
Will Beryl's Texas landfall intensity be adjusted post-season? I'll go with yes, they'll ultimately bump up to 75 kts based on continued organization and surface obs.
Will major adjustments be made to Beryl's intensity outside of the peak and Texas landfall? Not major, but I think they'll nudge down some of the wind speeds in the NW Caribbean. For example, I could see the Yucatan landfall being only 90 kts rather than 95 kts.
Will the name be retired? Yes, due to the Windward Island impacts only.
Will this be the worst hurricane this season? Worst in what way? I'll go with highest wind, not lowest pressure, not worst damages or deaths.
I'll say yes, no, no, yes, no.

For what it's worth, peak obs in Beryl:
Flight-level winds: 164 knots @ 750mb, reduces to 147.6 knots @ surface
SFMR readings: 165 knots. The highest SFMR since Dorian and by far the highest since the SFMR algorithm adjustment.
TDR readings: 170 knots @ 500 meters above surface, appears to support about 145-150 knots at surface.
Dropsonde winds: 159 knots over the lowest 150m, directly reduces to 135 knots. Peak instantaneous wind of 198 knots at 910 mb. Note that these are two separate dropsondes. We only have one dropsonde from the peak intensity flight that survived all the way to surface in the strongest eyewall quadrant.

A case can be made for either 145 or 150 knots, it all comes down to how much the NHC decides to weigh those hefty SFMR obs.

[Deshaunrob17]

Is Beryl considered a long-tracked hurricane? What exactly is the definition of a long tracked hurricane and major hurricane?

[Hurricane2022]

Is Beryl considered a long-tracked hurricane? What exactly is the definition of a long tracked hurricane and major hurricane?

Not just a long-track MH, but Beryl is also a Caribbean-Cruiser, the first since Dean '07 (or maybe Grace '21, but she was mostly weak during her trip over the Carib ocean).

[aspen]

This isn't based on a lot of analysis, but:

Will Beryl's peak intensity be adjusted post-season? No. It was borderline 145 kts vs. 150 kts, so I think they'll stick with 145.
Will Beryl's Texas landfall intensity be adjusted post-season? I'll go with yes, they'll ultimately bump up to 75 kts based on continued organization and surface obs.
Will major adjustments be made to Beryl's intensity outside of the peak and Texas landfall? Not major, but I think they'll nudge down some of the wind speeds in the NW Caribbean. For example, I could see the Yucatan landfall being only 90 kts rather than 95 kts.
Will the name be retired? Yes, due to the Windward Island impacts only.
Will this be the worst hurricane this season? Worst in what way? I'll go with highest wind, not lowest pressure, not worst damages or deaths.
I'll say yes, no, no, yes, no.

For what it's worth, peak obs in Beryl:
Flight-level winds: 164 knots @ 750mb, reduces to 147.6 knots @ surface
SFMR readings: 165 knots. The highest SFMR since Dorian and by far the highest since the SFMR algorithm adjustment.
TDR readings: 170 knots @ 500 meters above surface, appears to support about 145-150 knots at surface.
Dropsonde winds: 159 knots over the lowest 150m, directly reduces to 135 knots. Peak instantaneous wind of 198 knots at 910 mb. Note that these are two separate dropsondes. We only have one dropsonde from the peak intensity flight that survived all the way to surface in the strongest eyewall quadrant.

A case can be made for either 145 or 150 knots, it all comes down to how much the NHC decides to weigh those hefty SFMR obs.

Don’t forget the NE eyewall drop that found 167 kt winds at or near the surface (940mb level).

Taking all of this into account, and comparing it to Lee (which was also assessed at 145 kt operationally and stayed that in post despite a line 155-160 kt SFMR reading), it seems there’s a strong case for Beryl having peaked higher than 145 kt. A conservative blend of the data yields 150 kt, but depending on how much weight the NHC is willing to give to these post-algorithm adjustment SFMR readings, there is a case for 155 kt too.

It was definitely stronger pressure-wise too. The NHC went with 934mb at the 8pm intermediate advisory because recon was showing some slight weakening, but the first pass on Tuesday morning (same one with the 167 kt eyewall drop) supported 930-931 mbar. Could even be a case for 928-929 mbar depending on how long Beryl had been weakening for. Suffice to say, it was likely around the same pressure as Dennis and Emily.

[Ubuntwo]

This isn't based on a lot of analysis, but:

Will Beryl's peak intensity be adjusted post-season? No. It was borderline 145 kts vs. 150 kts, so I think they'll stick with 145.
Will Beryl's Texas landfall intensity be adjusted post-season? I'll go with yes, they'll ultimately bump up to 75 kts based on continued organization and surface obs.
Will major adjustments be made to Beryl's intensity outside of the peak and Texas landfall? Not major, but I think they'll nudge down some of the wind speeds in the NW Caribbean. For example, I could see the Yucatan landfall being only 90 kts rather than 95 kts.
Will the name be retired? Yes, due to the Windward Island impacts only.
Will this be the worst hurricane this season? Worst in what way? I'll go with highest wind, not lowest pressure, not worst damages or deaths.
I'll say yes, no, no, yes, no.

For what it's worth, peak obs in Beryl:
Flight-level winds: 164 knots @ 750mb, reduces to 147.6 knots @ surface
SFMR readings: 165 knots. The highest SFMR since Dorian and by far the highest since the SFMR algorithm adjustment.
TDR readings: 170 knots @ 500 meters above surface, appears to support about 145-150 knots at surface.
Dropsonde winds: 159 knots over the lowest 150m, directly reduces to 135 knots. Peak instantaneous wind of 198 knots at 910 mb. Note that these are two separate dropsondes. We only have one dropsonde from the peak intensity flight that survived all the way to surface in the strongest eyewall quadrant.

A case can be made for either 145 or 150 knots, it all comes down to how much the NHC decides to weigh those hefty SFMR obs.

Don’t forget the NE eyewall drop that found 167 kt winds at or near the surface (940mb level).

Taking all of this into account, and comparing it to Lee (which was also assessed at 145 kt operationally and stayed that in post despite a line 155-160 kt SFMR reading), it seems there’s a strong case for Beryl having peaked higher than 145 kt. A conservative blend of the data yields 150 kt, but depending on how much weight the NHC is willing to give to these post-algorithm adjustment SFMR readings, there is a case for 155 kt too.

It was definitely stronger pressure-wise too. The NHC went with 934mb at the 8pm intermediate advisory because recon was showing some slight weakening, but the first pass on Tuesday morning (same one with the 167 kt eyewall drop) supported 930-931 mbar. Could even be a case for 928-929 mbar depending on how long Beryl had been weakening for. Suffice to say, it was likely around the same pressure as Dennis and Emily.

That's the same drop I averaged out to 159 knots over the lowest 150m. While the near-surface winds are extremely impressive, they are instantaneous and as such not used in NHC's intensity estimates. The case for 150 is pretty clear-cut if they give even slight credence to SFMR. I agree that central pressure should probably be dropped to around 930 mb.

[Xyls]

Unfortunately there seems to be a growing loss of life from Beryl in the United States at least 7 confirmed dead in Texas, and possibly 1 tornado related in Louisiana.
https://www.fox26houston.com/news/beryl ... oding-fire

https://www.ktalnews.com/news/local-new ... re-storms/

[CrazyC83]

As far as the Best Track of Beryl (this is UNOFFICIAL), here is how I would assess it in the end.

AL022024, BERYL, 44,
20240628, 1200, , TD, 8.8N, 39.4W, 25, 1012,
20240628, 1800, , TD, 9.0N, 40.9W, 30, 1010,
20240629, 0000, , TS, 9.2N, 42.5W, 35, 1008,
20240629, 0600, , TS, 9.5N, 44.6W, 45, 1004,
20240629, 1200, , TS, 9.8N, 46.7W, 55, 1000,
20240629, 1800, , TS, 10.0N, 48.6W, 60, 998,
20240630, 0000, , HU, 10.2N, 50.4W, 70, 993,
20240630, 0600, , HU, 10.4N, 52.2W, 90, 981,
20240630, 1200, , HU, 10.6N, 54.0W, 110, 964,
20240630, 1800, , HU, 10.9N, 55.7W, 120, 959,
20240701, 0000, , HU, 11.2N, 57.3W, 110, 958,
20240701, 0600, , HU, 11.5N, 59.0W, 100, 967,
20240701, 1200, , HU, 12.0N, 60.5W, 115, 956,
20240701, 1500, L, HU, 12.4N, 61.4W, 130, 949,
20240701, 1800, , HU, 12.8N, 62.3W, 135, 944,
20240702, 0000, , HU, 13.4N, 64.0W, 140, 938,
20240702, 0600, , HU, 14.2N, 65.9W, 145, 934,
20240702, 1200, , HU, 15.0N, 67.9W, 145, 932,
20240702, 1800, , HU, 15.6N, 69.9W, 135, 943,
20240703, 0000, , HU, 16.1N, 71.8W, 130, 946,
20240703, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 73.5W, 125, 947,
20240703, 1200, , HU, 16.8N, 75.3W, 120, 951,
20240703, 1800, , HU, 17.2N, 76.8W, 120, 957,
20240704, 0000, , HU, 17.8N, 78.3W, 115, 960,
20240704, 0600, , HU, 18.3N, 80.1W, 105, 964,
20240704, 1200, , HU, 18.8N, 81.8W, 95, 969,
20240704, 1800, , HU, 19.2N, 83.5W, 95, 972,
20240705, 0000, , HU, 19.4N, 84.8W, 105, 962,
20240705, 0600, , HU, 19.8N, 86.2W, 90, 970,
20240705, 1045, L, HU, 20.3N, 87.4W, 80, 978,
20240705, 1200, , HU, 20.4N, 87.7W, 70, 982,
20240705, 1800, , TS, 20.9N, 88.8W, 50, 994,
20240706, 0000, , TS, 21.5N, 89.8W, 50, 996,
20240706, 0600, , TS, 22.1N, 90.9W, 45, 1000,
20240706, 1200, , TS, 22.6N, 91.9W, 45, 997,
20240706, 1800, , TS, 23.5N, 92.7W, 50, 996,
20240707, 0000, , TS, 24.4N, 93.5W, 50, 993,
20240707, 0600, , TS, 24.9N, 94.3W, 50, 994,
20240707, 1200, , TS, 25.5N, 94.9W, 55, 991,
20240707, 1800, , TS, 26.2N, 95.3W, 55, 989,
20240708, 0000, , TS, 27.1N, 95.6W, 60, 985,
20240708, 0600, , HU, 28.2N, 95.9W, 70, 981,
20240708, 0900, L, HU, 28.7N, 95.9W, 75, 979,
20240708, 1200, , HU, 29.2N, 95.9W, 65, 981,
20240708, 1800, , TS, 30.6N, 95.5W, 45, 989,
20240709, 0000, , TD, 32.0N, 94.8W, 30, 998,

Some thoughts:

* Overall, changes from the operational are minor (within 0.2 degrees or 5 knots), except upon approach to the Yucatan landfall. The track is smoothed out especially in its weaker phases. Pressure estimates are higher due to the findings later with Recon.

* The peak intensity is maintained at 145 kt after a detailed initial review. The flight-level winds and dropsonde translate to such (164 at 750 mb would be about 140-145 kt, while the dropsonde data reduce to 135-145 kt). The data from Recon was not convincing enough to go up to 150 kt (it was considered) and the SFMR was given only modest weighting near the islands as the waves bouncing off them may have contaminated the data (reference Iota's TCR). The minimum pressure I estimate was 932 mb, which was during a period lacking Recon and reflecting that it likely dropped a bit more, then rose rapidly.

* Intensity at the Yucatan landfall I estimate was 80 kt, albeit with considerable uncertainty. There was no Recon in the last few hours, and the last flight supported about 90 kt. That said, the pressure rose from 970 to 978 in that time based on surface data, which suggests further weakening.

* As far as the Texas landfall, my estimated intensity is 75 kt. That is based on the 84 kt flight-level winds and some radar measurements leading up to and at landfall. There weren't a great deal of surface observations, however, a C-MAN station at the entrance to Galveston Bay recorded hurricane-force winds 4 hours after landfall, and numerous reports of gusts to hurricane force were reported. The 979 mb pressure is in agreement with Recon and storm chasers.

[mpic]

Don't know if this will post, but trying. Want to thank everybody for their knowledge and input through this. No power (so no wifi or tv) for at least the next 5 days or so, phone is improving but sketchy. Massive tree loss in my little town. Temps are expected to be brutual again starting tomorrow with rain on Wednesday and Saturday.
For being only a Cat 1 at the last minute, I shudder to think if it had been stronger. Luckily we didn't get near the rain that was forecast. I'm sitting on the front porch listening to crickets, cicadas, frogs and the hum of generators. If we start getting bad weather more often, I might have to invest in one! Located 68 miles from the Giulf due north of Houston.

[CrazyC83]

Don't know if this will post, but trying. Want to thank everybody for their knowledge and input through this. No power (so no wifi or tv) for at least the next 5 days or so, phone is improving but sketchy. Massive tree loss in my little town. Temps are expected to be brutual again starting tomorrow with rain on Wednesday and Saturday.
For being only a Cat 1 at the last minute, I shudder to think if it had been stronger. Luckily we didn't get near the rain that was forecast. I'm sitting on the front porch listening to crickets, cicadas, frogs and the hum of generators. If we start getting bad weather more often, I might have to invest in one! Located 68 miles from the Giulf due north of Houston.

Given that Houston was in the RFQ, the winds were not too dissimilar than those of Ike in the Houston area, so it is understandable to see that kind of damage. A category 4 or 5 on that track would be absolutely horrific.

[IcyTundra]

Don't know if this will post, but trying. Want to thank everybody for their knowledge and input through this. No power (so no wifi or tv) for at least the next 5 days or so, phone is improving but sketchy. Massive tree loss in my little town. Temps are expected to be brutual again starting tomorrow with rain on Wednesday and Saturday.
For being only a Cat 1 at the last minute, I shudder to think if it had been stronger. Luckily we didn't get near the rain that was forecast. I'm sitting on the front porch listening to crickets, cicadas, frogs and the hum of generators. If we start getting bad weather more often, I might have to invest in one! Located 68 miles from the Giulf due north of Houston.

Given that Houston was in the RFQ, the winds were not too dissimilar than those of Ike in the Houston area, so it is understandable to see that kind of damage. A category 4 or 5 on that track would be absolutely horrific.

Especially for the western half of the Houston metro which is where most of the power outages are.

[HoustonFrog]

Don't know if this will post, but trying. Want to thank everybody for their knowledge and input through this. No power (so no wifi or tv) for at least the next 5 days or so, phone is improving but sketchy. Massive tree loss in my little town. Temps are expected to be brutual again starting tomorrow with rain on Wednesday and Saturday.
For being only a Cat 1 at the last minute, I shudder to think if it had been stronger. Luckily we didn't get near the rain that was forecast. I'm sitting on the front porch listening to crickets, cicadas, frogs and the hum of generators. If we start getting bad weather more often, I might have to invest in one! Located 68 miles from the Giulf due north of Houston.

Given that Houston was in the RFQ, the winds were not too dissimilar than those of Ike in the Houston area, so it is understandable to see that kind of damage. A category 4 or 5 on that track would be absolutely horrific.

I learned today that track is just as important as intensity. Being on the immediate east side of a category 1 was pretty freaking intense and has caused huge damage in my neighborhood, no power and weeks of cleanup. Trees down everywhere and I’m in south Montgomery County.

A category 4 or 5 on that exact same track may end Houston. Not sure there would be much left

[mempho]

Trust me- I know this is probably going to sound like the dumbest thing I’ve ever said BUT…

just looking at the radar presentation, Beryl looks like it’s strengthening again.

Again- I know that’s not the way it works BUT it has all kinds of lightning going on just north of the center in what may have been the eyewall many hours ago.

[Ubuntwo]

* The peak intensity is maintained at 145 kt after a detailed initial review. The flight-level winds and dropsonde translate to such (164 at 750 mb would be about 140-145 kt, while the dropsonde data reduce to 135-145 kt). The data from Recon was not convincing enough to go up to 150 kt (it was considered) and the SFMR was given only modest weighting near the islands as the waves bouncing off them may have contaminated the data (reference Iota's TCR). The minimum pressure I estimate was 932 mb, which was during a period lacking Recon and reflecting that it likely dropped a bit more, then rose rapidly.
.

Peak SFMR was recorded at 14.900N 67.050W: over 200 miles from the nearest landmass (Puerto Rico). For contrast, Iota was within 20 miles of the isle of Providencia at peak SFMR. There’s always a case to disregard high intensity SFMR, but here wave reflection cannot be one of the reasons. The case for 145 knots is still very strong. I agree on all other counts, excellent analysis.

[underthwx]

10 days from start to finish.

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1810444127772795367

Epic damage too...hey yall....im down...but not out...lots of damage....IA tree divided my house in two...my neighbor even worse...of course no power and all that good stuff...I knew what was coming...this ain't about me...its a time to take care of each other...im good tho....good and tired...I need to take the time to stop....and thank each and every one of yall for helping me...and millions in the path of Beryl....yall helped me plan and decide what action I needed to take....thats gold to me...thankyou!....

[wxman57]

No power at home. Went to coworker's house to recharge laptop and external batteries.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1810643666983072005

[cycloneye]

20 fatalities.

 https://x.com/WXFatalities/status/1810652881063919675