ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CypressMike]

I'm a little surprised by what I've seen so far. I'm in Cypress (Bridgeland) in NW Harris County, and that northeasterly turn she made took us out of the eastern side. That said, I've recorded a peak gust of 73 mph, with many, many gusts exceeding 60 mph. I can't imagine how much worse it must be SE of here in Houston. I'm sure there will be many downed trees.

The worst may be over for us since the eye is getting pretty close. I'll be pissed if I end up missing hurricane force wind gusts by 1 mph. The same thing happened to me during Ike!

[Ubuntwo]

Peak flight level wind was 85 kt, which supported a surface wind of 76-77 kt. Wouldn't surprise me to see NHC bump the landfall intensity to 75 kt in post season analysis.

The final pass actually recorded flight-level winds of 90kt. Radar velocities corroborated.

Thank you for the correction. 90 kt flight level wind would support 81 kt at the surface, so will be interesting to see how NHC handles that in post season analysis & if there is an upgrade to 75-80 kt at landfall.

SFMR peaked at 71kt, so I imagine that was keeping them at 70kt. I agree the overall blend supports 75kt, and fwiw the NE quad could not be sampled at peak as it was already over land.

[ROCK]

DT Houston will be in the eye soon and things should settle down after that. That onshore flow has been a monster for sure. Angle of approach was not something we would want if this was a major.

Still getting pummeled down here on Galveston Island. Beryl isn’t settling down like it should.

lol it’s almost done after that last feeder goes by.

[cycloneye]

Despite being inland for a few hours, it still packs a punch.

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA...
...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of
58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).

A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently
measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h).

[ROCK]

Hobby, DT Houston and east Houston are fixing to take what’s left of the east eye wall so not surprised.

[Pipelines182]

Anyone else notice over the years that storms that make landfall while strengthening, even if they're only a TS/Cat 1, seem to have higher winds than much stronger hurricanes that are weakening? Take Beryl hitting Mexico as a weakening cat 3/2, conditions seem far worse in Texas than they were in Mexico.

[HurricaneBelle]

Anyone else notice over the years that storms that make landfall while strengthening, even if they're only a TS/Cat 1, seem to have higher winds than much stronger hurricanes that are weakening? Take Beryl hitting Mexico as a weakening cat 3/2, conditions seem far worse in Texas than they were in Mexico.

Yes it's a well-observed phenomenon, weakening storms are less efficient in mixing their winds down to the surface.

[NDG]

Impressive, even Intercontinental airport has reported a wind gust of 83 mph, impressive for being that far inland.

Jul 8, 9:23 am 75 75 100 ESE 51G83 0.25 Hvy rain

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries? ... H&hours=72

[Pipelines182]

Anyone else notice over the years that storms that make landfall while strengthening, even if they're only a TS/Cat 1, seem to have higher winds than much stronger hurricanes that are weakening? Take Beryl hitting Mexico as a weakening cat 3/2, conditions seem far worse in Texas than they were in Mexico.

Yes it's a well-observed phenomenon, weakening storms are less efficient in mixing their winds down to the surface.

Seems to me this is something the NHC should consider when issuing forecasts. You get a lot of the "well that major hurricane was overhyped" when a storm makes landfall while weakening, causes complacency for the next one where its a strengthening cat 3 that causes massive damage. Or even this one where it's "just a cat 1" and everyone is surprised how strong the winds are.

[loon]

The winds here in downtown have been pretty impressive. We rode the NE and East side and are now getting repeat building bands of the SE side of the eye.

[MGC]

Downtown Houston is being battered in Beryl's eastern eyewall. Y'all stay safe in Texas......MGC

[kassi]

2,271,995 currently without power in Texas and she isn't done.

[wx98]

A strengthening cat 1 is always worse than a weakening cat 2.

I mentioned this a couple days ago on here. Winds often aren’t mixing down in weakening systems but strengthening systems always pack a big punch, even if they aren’t that “strong”.

[capNstorms]

Gotta love the FB crowd that was saying the storm wasn't going to be nothing, they now saying "it wasn't supposed to do that, they said it wasn't going to do that"

[Anti-freeze]

2 million customers without power in the Houston area, but customer is by meter. So a house with a family of 5 is 1 customer, an apartment with 1 person is 1 customer, etc. I think it typically averages out to about 2.5 persons affected per customer. So about 5 million persons without power in a region of 7.6 million.

[Pipelines182]

A strengthening cat 1 is always worse than a weakening cat 2.

I mentioned this a couple days ago on here. Winds often aren’t mixing down in weakening systems but strengthening systems always pack a big punch, even if they aren’t that “strong”.

Glad I wasn't just imagining that. I wonder why the NHC never mentions it, nor any meteorologist I've noticed, IMO the impacts can be as much as 2 categories difference, it's significant.

[capNstorms]

looks like some decent hot towers firing up around the core again, don't tell me this thing has the brown ocean effect at the sun's highest position

[Fancy1002]

If you think about it, we’re kind of lucky that Beryl developed when she did.

[wx98]

A strengthening cat 1 is always worse than a weakening cat 2.

I mentioned this a couple days ago on here. Winds often aren’t mixing down in weakening systems but strengthening systems always pack a big punch, even if they aren’t that “strong”.

Glad I wasn't just imagining that. I wonder why the NHC never mentions it, nor any meteorologist I've noticed, IMO the impacts can be as much as 2 categories difference, it's significant.

Honestly I don’t think many ProMets pay attention to nuances like these that maybe aren’t widely discussed or taught in classes.

[wx98]

looks like some decent hot towers firing up around the core again, don't tell me this thing has the brown ocean effect at the sun's highest position

It’s not going to intensify that far inland.